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We never had a candidate before who motivates the opposition the way Donald Trump does.
We had a record turnout in 2018 for a midterm election, numbers not seen in over six decades. That should give you an indication of where the mindset of the electorate is. I would not be surprised to see 60% turnout next month given how engaged voters were in the off-season election. And things have gotten exponentially worse throughout the country since then.
People are engaged in the outcome of this election more than I have ever seen in the 40+ years I've been voting.
I am in Ohio and not seeing it that way. My circle of friends inside and outside of work is pretty mixed. Just a lot of talk about two disappointing candidates and how we should have better choices. People on both sides sitting it out. It just does not add up to 60% turnout in my view but who knows these are crazy times and maybe we get there. Hoping its not a big mess but I know it will be.
I am in Ohio and not seeing it that way. My circle of friends inside and outside of work is pretty mixed. Just a lot of talk about two disappointing candidates and how we should have better choices. People on both sides sitting it out. It just does not add up to 60% turnout in my view but who knows these are crazy times and maybe we get there. Hoping its not a big mess but I know it will be.
Maracopia and Broward County clerks (very large Counties) are expecting ~80% turnout.
Pretty much every Primary this year state/federal/presidential has had record turnout.
One big mistake pollsters are making is turnout for this 2020 cycle. In their LV polling models, they are assuming high turnout as much as it was in 2018, 16, etc- which is why Dems are polling much higher. In reality, this will be a low turnout election which will help the GOP.
Pollsters are assuming voters want to come out as much as they have in the last few cycles- but they won't. When sports came back in the late summer, most assumed that ratings would be way up because of the deprivation- in reality they were way down. Same will happen for voting.
To conclude, if pollsters adjusted their LV screens to low turnout, GOP would be 2-3 points better off in every poll atleast. The polls may end up even more off than 2016 given the climate.
Numbers down 14 mil for the debate. We are in for low turnout this year, ratings are way down for sports, politics, entertainment, etc., bank on low turnout if you wanna be right.
1. My guess is most of the debate watchers were all partisans who have their minds made up, because the middle 30% is disinterested.
2. The sluggishness of that debate only reinforced people’s disinterest in the election
Nice wishcasting for a big Trump win - we'll see soon enough how wrong you are Must be depressing having to hope people don't exercise their patriotic duty to vote so your carnival barker president can win
Last edited by ChuckG2008; 10-01-2020 at 11:21 AM..
“Prior to the 2000 election between George W. Bush and Al Gore, just 50% of the voters thought that it really mattered who won, versus 44% who thought that things would be pretty much the same, whoever won. This year, a record 83%—including 85% of Democrats, 86% of Republicans—say that it really matters.
...
“I expect voter turnout to be exceptional, perhaps the highest in over a century, since 1908,” said Michael McDonald, who directs the U.S. Elections Project. “I sometimes refer to it as the ‘storm of the century’,” he added. Turnout in 1908 was 65.7%, compared to 54.2% in 2000 and 60.1% in 2016. If McDonald is correct and turnout reaches the 1908 level, votes cast in 2020 could total more than 145 million, up from 133 million in 2016.“
“63% of Americans age 18-29 say they will “definitely be voting” in the November election, a new Harvard Youth Poll found, marking a substantial increase from 2016 and 2018 and putting youth turnout in November on track to match or exceed the 2008 election.
The percentage of young Americans who plan to vote far exceeds the 47% who said they definitely planned to vote ahead of the 2016 election, 40% who planned to vote in 2018 and 48% who planned to vote in 2012.“
I am in Ohio and not seeing it that way. My circle of friends inside and outside of work is pretty mixed. Just a lot of talk about two disappointing candidates and how we should have better choices. People on both sides sitting it out. It just does not add up to 60% turnout in my view but who knows these are crazy times and maybe we get there. Hoping its not a big mess but I know it will be.
Your anecdotal evidence doesn't have the same weight as actual statistics, so I wouldn't put a lot of stock in it.
But as for your last line, I am worried about that as well. We already have states like Pennsylvania whose Republican legislature is trying to set up a GOP-led election "integrity" committee that will allow them some control over ballots that have been cast. If things like this are allowed to stand then we are in more trouble than we know.
If Biden gets 70M I think he will easily win. How many you think Trump will get?
66 millionish
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