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Old 10-01-2020, 07:12 PM
 
Location: Arizona
13,354 posts, read 7,385,078 times
Reputation: 10143

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I see an uptrend starting for Biden after the crazy performance Trump made at the debate the remaining undecided voters made their decision to vote for Joe Biden. The first debate is always the most important debate, and has the highest numbers. This one hit 73 million viewers a new record high.


https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...iden-6247.html
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Old 10-01-2020, 07:33 PM
 
Location: FL
20,702 posts, read 12,561,899 times
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Biden's numbers will start going up more and Trump will get a little more bizarre.
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Old 10-01-2020, 08:11 PM
 
4,482 posts, read 3,836,434 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kell490 View Post
I see an uptrend starting for Biden after the crazy performance Trump made at the debate the remaining undecided voters made their decision to vote for Joe Biden. The first debate is always the most important debate, and has the highest numbers. This one hit 73 million viewers a new record high.


https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...iden-6247.html
That poll has a C- rating from 538 AND a Democrat bias. The article also says that only 2% polled changed their minds after the debate. The debate did not change the opinion of 98% of voters.
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Old 10-01-2020, 08:38 PM
 
Location: Arizona
13,354 posts, read 7,385,078 times
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538 giving Biden one more path to victory this week.

"Trump might have lost a little support, but not that much. However, as editor-in-chief Nate Silver wrote on Wednesday, that still poses a real problem for Trump, as he entered Tuesday night’s debate with roughly a 7- or 8-point deficit in national polls, which put him further behind at this stage of the race than any other candidate since Bob Dole in 1996"

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...tion-forecast/
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Old 10-01-2020, 09:01 PM
 
Location: Georgia
2,707 posts, read 1,036,916 times
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And once AGAIN they refuse to give a link to the poll because we all know its slanted left and undersampled republicans.
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Old 10-02-2020, 07:35 AM
 
Location: Kansas
26,017 posts, read 22,203,791 times
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In the 321 pages of that poll, did it ever identify how many Reps vs Dems were polled? I scanned clear to the end only to learn that it was "US registered voters". I did learn that this was a "weighted" poll which allows for "play" with the actual numbers, it isn't straight forward.

https://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/01/u...-go-wrong.html (informative article on polling)

But, hey, giving "hope" to the "hopeless"..................
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Old 10-02-2020, 07:50 AM
 
5,937 posts, read 4,708,611 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by xboxmas View Post
That poll has a C- rating from 538 AND a Democrat bias. The article also says that only 2% polled changed their minds after the debate. The debate did not change the opinion of 98% of voters.
No one is saying the debate would have changed 98%. But, 2% is a truly significant number.

The latest RCP average reads:
Biden 50.1
Trump 42.9

That leaves 7% undecided. If 2 of every 7 undecided voters made a decision, that's a big deal. It doesn't mean Biden is up 52.1 to 42.9. Nor does it mean Biden is up 50.1 to 44.9. Surely it is somewhere in the middle. If in the coming days we start to see polls that show only 5% undecided voters, the window is rapidly closing for Trump to make up ground.
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Old 10-02-2020, 08:09 AM
 
8,951 posts, read 2,976,284 times
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Anyone want to give me some action on Biden winning the pop vote by 13?

I'll gladly take all comers!

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Old 10-02-2020, 10:38 AM
 
Location: Bella Vista, Ark
77,771 posts, read 104,918,048 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by paracord View Post
Anyone want to give me some action on Biden winning the pop vote by 13?

I'll gladly take all comers!

Be you don't get any takers: Even at 6% bet no one will bite
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Old 10-02-2020, 11:16 AM
 
7,817 posts, read 2,911,166 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kell490 View Post
I see an uptrend starting for Biden after the crazy performance Trump made at the debate the remaining undecided voters made their decision to vote for Joe Biden. The first debate is always the most important debate, and has the highest numbers. This one hit 73 million viewers a new record high.


https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...iden-6247.html

It was not a new record high. 2016's first debate had over 80 million viewers.
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