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I think he could. I don't think he would loose a lot of the support of the Trump voters that would have voted for Trump no matter what but many of the Republican support that Trump pushed away just might return.
I agree. Exactly as it would play out!
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Originally Posted by nmnita
I am not even thinking about something like that right now: Let's wait a few days and see how Trump is responding before we start making plans for the future without him.
Now, do I think Pence could win? I haven't thought about it, but yes, he would get sympathy votes from Trump supporters..
Well, in desperation, the Dems are certainly thinking about it. Actually, they have been talking about hoping Trump got the virus for some time now.
I don't think Pence would do as well as Trump, but he would still defeat the Dems.
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Originally Posted by Vacanegro
It's not good look for the incumbent President to run for reelection from a hospital bed but I would guess that almost everyone who plans to vote has already made up their minds.
Exactly. And, with the recovery rate for the virus being so high, he should be up and going in a week or so. Several people over 100 years old have recovered.
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Originally Posted by zach_33
Not wishing Trump's demise in any way, shape or form, but Harris would be an easy choice in an even money bet against Pence in a Nov 2020 match up.
Another Democratic day dream.
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Originally Posted by Oklazona Bound
I think Pence would do better than Trump against Biden. Plus if he picked say Nicky Haley he would garner more support. So many republicans and Trump democrats have turned against Trump but don't like Biden at all. This would be the chance to get them back.
Who wouldn't do better against Biden? Trump will get more support than Pence would, but still win against Biden.
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Originally Posted by Oklazona Bound
Is that the chatter over on Q? Trump was intentionally given covid? Did they squirt it on his big mac? The conspiracies have no limit.
The Democrats have been known to do some shady stuff. Ever see the list of Clinton enemy deaths? The number of suicides among them which I have entitled "suicide by proxy". So a little virus would be a minor thing compared to the other possibilities.
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Originally Posted by TXRunner
Americans like personality. Pence is just too bland, I don’t see people getting fired up for him. For better or worse, Biden and Harris, like Trump, do have strong personalities. If Trump dies, or even has some massive struggle with COVID, I see the Democrats winning.
"Pence is just too bland."? Biden is barely functioning at all, so I'm thinking Pence would prevail against Biden just like any other candidate would.
Trump's demise in any way is simply Democratic day dreams!
"Pence is just too bland."? Biden is barely functioning at all, so I'm thinking Pence would prevail against Biden just like any other candidate would.
His point was that a barely functioning Biden still has more personality than someone like Pence who is dull as dishwater. I don't remember a President Dole, Gore, Kerry, and Romney. Do you?
The GOP would have to quickly choose someone to lead the ticket. There is no guarantee it would be Pence. Even if it was, Trump supporters will say that if Pence is chosen, they would still vote enthusiastically for him, but I have trouble believing that's true. Pence isn't the leader of their cult. He has not been the one they defend, deflect for and worship day in and day out for almost 5 years now. Whether Trump supporters want to admit it, something like Trump dying would be devastating and entirely demoralizing to a lot of the electorate that supports him. Without Trump, a lot of people would stay home- more than they want to believe.
Pence is benign enough to bring some Biden-voting republicans back to the tent, but the religiosity is still a huge turn off for many
That could happen Republican voters who dislike Trump might return to vote for the GOP ticket and independent voters who planed on voting for Biden to get rid of Trump . While Pence might lose some of Trumps base (white supremist, Conspiracy theorist) he would gain others.
That could happen Republican voters who dislike Trump might return to vote for the GOP ticket and independent voters who planed on voting for Biden to get rid of Trump . While Pence might lose some of Trumps base (white supremist, Conspiracy theorist) he would gain others.
Idk if those voters would go Biden. I think Pence secures a good majority of Trumps loonier followers plus voters Trump won’t get.
The election has begun. Absentees are receiving their ballots and sending them in all over the nation and from all over the world. There is no way to stop it now, and there's no way it can be re-started if it is stopped.
If Trump wins and is unable to serve, Pence would assume the Presidency.
If Trump loses and is unable to serve, Pence takes over the lame-duck session to serve as President until Biden is sworn in.
If Trump dies, Pence takes his place until the election is over.
Since no incumbent President has ever died in office so close to an election before, if Pence becomes the default winner due to Trump's death, and there was a legal challenge to the election, the Supreme Court would decide the issue or not.
SCOTUS could hand the decision over to the Senate to decide, as that's in the Constitution, but a previous court in 2000 settled a similar question by themselves.
But in that instance, both candidates were alive and healthy, so there's a possibility that a SCOTUS decision regarding a dead nominee could be challenged because the issue lies outside SCOTUS jurisdiction.
The framers left this issue very unclear, but it was their apparent intent to leave matters like this up to the Senate to decide from the articles the framers did include.
Intent is something that can be argued, however, as there's nothing clear and specific in intent; everything is only implied.
Since there's a lot of division as to whether the Supreme Court should be activist- actually creating law- or should be foundational- sticking to interpreting existing laws only- the matter is complicated within the Court.
Some of the Justices have pledged to strictly abide to the words written in the Constitution, while others have not. With an 8-person Court, their decision could become tied.
A tie usually means the existing law continues to stand, but in this case, there is no existing law.
So if a tie was to happen, the decision to swear Pence into the Presidency would be decided by the Senate. The Senate would have to act quickly, as the date when a new President is sworn in is in the Constitution, and cannot be delayed for any reason.
But there's no way to cancel all the existing ballots and replace them with Pence instead of Trump. The only way he could win by ballot would be write-in votes on the ballots.
Once an election begins, it cannot be stopped, and by the Constitution must be held on one given day, period.
There are no exceptions to that in the Constitution, and it is the ultimate authority on the matter.
Last edited by banjomike; 10-03-2020 at 12:18 PM..
... I do think the republicans could fare better against Biden with someone other than Trump.
I agree.
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Originally Posted by zach_33
McConnell is probably praying for Trump to die so that they can rush a younger, more socially contemporary ("soft" right) republican into the spotlight for a few weeks to compete against Biden. Someone who gives the right answer to questions like "Do you denounce white supremacy?"
He might wish it and I wouldn't blame him, but changing candidates is tricky at this stage. Probably impossible.
Most (if not all) states have long since passed their petition deadlines. The political party does not own that spot on the ballot. If the candidate drops out, or drops dead, or changes parties, the name remains and people could vote on it.
My state has already begun early voting. The Republican candidate is Trump, even if he can not serve.
I imagine there are some states which have addressed this with unique laws which allow for a last minute switch (I don't know of any, but maybe), but that would not be a universal practice.
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