Quote:
Originally Posted by fivenine
For me take Dspguy's map and add North Carolina to it.
Michigan is gone for Trump with no possible way to recover it due to his actions against COVID-19. I would put at least $1,000 of cash that Biden wins Michigan if I was a betting man. WI/MN are probably close behind Michigan unless the voter turnout for Team Blue is at 2016 levels. The protests/riots are probably the only thing that is giving him even a slight chance in both states. Pennsylvania is Trump's best shot but he is going to have to have rural vote run-up in addition to low voter turnout in in Philly and its suburbs to keep it.
In addition, I think Trump slips up and loses at least one Sun-Belt state. North Carolina is the best bet but Georgia and Arizona are in play as well. I think Texas, Florida, and South Carolina are safe for now at least.
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I agree with your take. But it would be boring to just take the RCP No Toss Up map and run with it. That has Biden at 375. I didn't even cherry pick 5 points for Trump to arrive at that 278-260 map purposefully. I just said "well, let's give Trump essentially a 5 point boost in all states and see where that lands us.
A 5 point swing in all battleground states is far far more generous than in 2016. If you average RCP's battleground states, Clinton was up by 1.2 points in those states. And Trump collectively won those battleground states by 0.3 points.
That's a 1.5 point swing in his direction. And I just spotted him 5 points, more than three-fold more battleground margin than he picked up in 2016.
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