Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
Can anti Trumpers let go of inaccurate polls? 2016 was a historical lesson, for the left, in don't assume that everything is as you are being told. That is something to not let go of, or don't learn from 2016. Your choice.
This thread is funny considering left leaning Suffolk has Florida tied
Trumpers are completely ignoring the national polls, and to some extent, they don't matter. But the national vote has direct implications on state votes. If Biden wins by even 5 points, which is approaching just 50% of the current polling support, the chances of Trump winning the necessary states to get the EV are extremely slim. A 3% margin seems to be around the maximum limit that a candidate can lose the popular vote and still win the EC. The race is nowhere close to that.
Bingo.
Each point in the 2016 Election was worth 1.33 million votes (133 million voters). Clinton the popular vote by 2.1%. If Biden won by 5%, that's an extra 2.9% margin over Trump than Clinton had. 2.9% is worth about 3.9 million votes.
In what states does Trump lose an extra 3.9 million votes over 2016 and still keep MI, WI and PA? He won those states by 11k, 23k, and 44k votes respectively. Where exactly is Trump going to lose nearly 4 million extra votes from 2016 and still keep those three states? Those states will likely decide 2020 the same way they decided 2016.
The popular vote matters when you reach a certain threshold. Trump starts running out of places to lose votes and still keep his slim margins from 2016. It is just math.
I think Trump's latest antics as well as his idiotic tweets have guaranteed him a loss. Holding off any stimulus agreement until after the election is clearly a ploy ... or a bribe. Whatever one wants to call it. This guy is getting desperate. I think he's done but that's just my opinion. Others may see it differently.
Cherry pick a single poll and you can get any answer you want.
RCP has about 50 polls in their Florida aggregate. Biden leads by about 4.6% but the scary thing for Trump is the trend over the last week. DJT is plummeting. 3 points down since Sept 25.
I will say this - for all the talk about polls under-representing Trump - which they did by about a point in FL in 16 according to averages - they under-represented Obama vote in FL in both 08 & 12 here.
There’s no guarantee “error” is only one direction
Yeah, Trafalgar, ABC/Washington Post and Big Data poll say it's impossible for Biden to win Florida.
He's that hated with the Cubans
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
