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This is a shocker. This poll is the most conservative in the country and actually had Trump ahead of a Biden by one point a few weeks ago. It was alone in that respect. Every other poll out of dozens taken said Biden has been ahead.
Well, today, Rasmussen has Biden at 52% and Trump at 40%.
Tough days to be a republican. If you aren't sick with coronavirus, you're behind in your election/reelection race.
If I were a Trump campaign staffer, I would use all means at my disposal to apply pressure on the campaign to course correct. I would also make sure I know where my next paycheck is coming from. Just saying...
Rasmussen polls have been reasonably in step with the range of other polls 4 of last 17 times. They'll probably diverge again. The times they are close to consensus MAY be an effort to try to retain / restore some semblance of credibility.
There are polls that appear systematically too favorable to or against Trump. I mainly care about the average. But even the average is a pretty rough guess.
Rasmussen is often all over the map on this. But this is not good for Trump. He seems to be down double digits in every poll. This did not happen 4 years ago. Most of Rasmussen polling had it pretty close. Exactly 4 years ago they had Clinton up by 1.
Did Rasmussen get the electoral college tally right in 2016 when Trump trounced Hillary?
Why would you belive them this time?
The final Rasmussen poll had Hillary by 2. Almost spot on. Exactly 4 years ago Rasmussen had Hillary +1. Trump will get crushed in the EC if he is down 12 in the popular.
The final Rasmussen poll had Hillary by 2. Almost spot on. Exactly 4 years ago Rasmussen had Hillary +1. Trump will get crushed in the EC if he is down 12 in the popular.
The probability of Trump winning the EC with a 12 point national deficit is <0.01%.
With the debate and the COVID diagnosis, this is not a big surprise. The dying down of the violence from the left is also helping Biden. We'll see if Trump is able to course correct or if we will be welcoming President Kamala into the White House.
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