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A 9 point lead this late is very difficult to overcome.
Trump will have to really gain a lot of voters and Biden will have to lose a lot for the gap to close to the normal 2-3 points all the elections have been since 2008.
But as I've thought since early summer, the virus is controlling this election, and I'm sure it has other surprises waiting for us.
I was positively sure Trump would never catch the virus himself. Every President is so medically protected I believed he could be indifferent and continue to refuse to protect himself, but his medical staff would.
I don't think I'm alone in this. It's probably driving all the early voting that's going on right now. Folks want to make sure they can get a ballot in before the next Carona surprise shows up.
A 9 point lead this late is very difficult to overcome.
Trump will have to really gain a lot of voters and Biden will have to lose a lot for the gap to close to the normal 2-3 points all the elections have been since 2008.
But as I've thought since early summer, the virus is controlling this election, and I'm sure it has other surprises waiting for us.
I was positively sure Trump would never catch the virus himself. Every President is so medically protected I believed he could be indifferent and continue to refuse to protect himself, but his medical staff would.
I don't think I'm alone in this. It's probably driving all the early voting that's going on right now. Folks want to make sure they can get a ballot in before the next Carona surprise shows up.
The voters are there. 56% of Americans say they are better today than they were four years ago. That is the highest percentage ever. Without a doubt Trump will get re-elected.
In 2016 there was a woman running for prez and there was no way this country was going to allow a female prez, period, no matter who it was, and HRC had enough enemies to affect the outcome. And let's not forget there was some interference by interested one or more other countries. I don't know if or when a female will ever be acceptable as president of the U.S., but it sure wasn't going to happen in 2016. I know several women, middle age and elderly who would never vote for a female prez because they think it's a man's job.
Contrast that with 2020.
Now you have 2 men running for prez...and specifically 2 'old'er men. So gender isn't the issue it was in '16. And age isn't much of a distinguishing factor either. As for political ideology, they're probably not quite as far apart as people think, though there are certainly differences. Biden is definitely moderate (not liberal, as the GOP wants people to believe). Trump is not as conservative as some want to believe. He flip-flops constantly, so if his base thinks they know what he'll do or can count on it, well guess again. Remember he threatened to take away all assault rifles and go against the NRA? I remember that.
Once you get past gender, age, and placement on the political spectrum, then you start getting into merits, experience, personality, and a bunch of other factors. If you want chaos, confusion, and find that amusing, Mr. T's your man. As the saying goes, though, be careful what you wish for. If you want someone who has a history of working well with both parties and works well 'across the aisle' and is someone already respected and who understands all that a prez needs to do and how to get things done, then Mr. B. is the fit. He's not exciting and never will be.
Last edited by lottamoxie; 10-10-2020 at 07:15 PM..
People keep comparing this year to 2016 but the dynamic is quite different. First of all, Trump now has a record he runs on and we can like it or not. Secondly, in 2016 there were a huge number of undecideds at this point. And they finally broke for Trump. This year the number of undecideds is low . Most people have made up their minds and the polls have been steady and consistent.
Yeah, you know how this year is different than 2016?
The voters are there. 56% of Americans say they are better today than they were four years ago. That is the highest percentage ever. Without a doubt Trump will get re-elected.
But are those 56% saying that it is because of Trump or his policies they they are doing better?
We're doing better but there is no policy that made that happen. Our house is paid off, and the wife was promoted to a job that also covers our leases on the cars, that freed up more of our income for other things. Trump had nothing to do with that happening.
I wouldn't assume that people saying that they are doing better means that they will vote for Trump.
The voters are there. 56% of Americans say they are better today than they were four years ago. That is the highest percentage ever. Without a doubt Trump will get re-elected.
Yes, unless we see some sudden turn of events (and anything is possible this year...) Trump will be reelected.
The turnout will win 2020 for Trump. He's also going to get a bump in the Black and Hispanic vote. And no, suburban women aren't going to come out in force for Biden.
It's only the MSM which is keeping Biden afloat. The polls? Throw out the outliners and the battleground states are basically a tossup.
I think we can all agree there's a sizeable percentage of Dems who will crawl over glass to vote Trump out. On the other hand there's nothing to suggest the Black/Hispanic turnout will be much better than in 2016.
Trump will likely win election night and while Biden might not concede any additional votes coming in over the next few days won't matter.
The voters are there. 56% of Americans say they are better today than they were four years ago. That is the highest percentage ever. Without a doubt Trump will get re-elected.
Doesnt matter. Trump is a faliure and any other GOPer would of been re-elected right now
The voters are there. 56% of Americans say they are better today than they
were four years ago. That is the highest percentage ever. Without a doubt Trump will get re-elected.
Maybe so.
I question whether that statement is important enough to drive a voter' decisions right now, though. A year ago, I'm sure most folks did believe they were better off than they were 4 years ago, but they are more worried now about what the virus is doing to us.
4 years ago, I was sure Clinton would lose, and caught a lot of flack about it from some of the folks I know.
But 4 years ago, I was convinced Joe Biden was retired and would never re-enter the political arena again, except as the occasional advisor, as most retirees are. When he declared last year, I gave him the same chances of winning I gave Trump in 2015.
That only goes to show how clouded my crystal ball is. Yours could be clearer than mine, as I'm often as wrong as right.
I have no doubt the voters are there. We agree on that, for sure. The numbers will set turnout records this year.
We won't have a very long wait now to see whose power of prediction is the better.
There were more undecided voters in 2016, a majority broke for Trump which is why he won. There are fewer undecideds this year, probably not enough for Trump to win again but it's not over by any means.
In 2016 there was a woman running for prez and there was no way this country was going to allow a female prez, period, no matter who it was, and HRC had enough enemies to affect the outcome. And let's not forget there was some interference by interested one or more other countries. I don't know if or when a female will ever be acceptable as president of the U.S., but it sure wasn't going to happen in 2016. I know several women, middle age and elderly who would never vote for a female prez because they think it's a man's job.
Contrast that with 2020.
Now you have 2 men running for prez...and specifically 2 'old'er men. So gender isn't the issue it was in '16. And age isn't much of a distinguishing factor either. As for political ideology, they're probably not quite as far apart as people think, though there are certainly differences. Biden is definitely moderate (not liberal, as the GOP wants people to believe). Trump is not as conservative as some want to believe. He flip-flops constantly, so if his base thinks they know what he'll do or can count on it, well guess again. Remember he threatened to take away all assault rifles and go against the NRA? I remember that.
Once you get past gender, age, and placement on the political spectrum, then you start getting into merits, experience, personality, and a bunch of other factors. If you want chaos, confusion, and find that amusing, Mr. T's your man. As the saying goes, though, be careful what you wish for. If you want someone who has a history of working well with both parties and works well 'across the aisle' and is someone already respected and who understands all that a prez needs to do and how to get things done, then Mr. B. is the fit. He's not exciting and never will be.
The part you omitted is that Joe Biden is a two-time failure at running for President ("C'mon Man! I was robbed!! Let's do some pushups!"). Yes he is old, but it's more important to note that he had to drop out in '88 due to his ethical lapse (plagiarism), but he wouldn't have won anyway. He was polling at 4% in 2008, and certainly had no chance in that election.
But post-'08, Biden has taken on a creepy persona. He's a literal sock puppet of the DNC, and the enthusiasm for his campaign has hit new lows recently.
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