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Guess we will have to agree to disagree. We shall find out in less than a month. I just do not see MN going red this time. To me WI is drifting red slowly. OH is drifting redder, partly because woke Dems dont play all that well there. A Dem fitting OH is best exemplified by Sherrod Brown which is not the direction of the Dems.
VA going red. Nah.
CO going red... Nah^2. CO is CA Northeast.
NV going red. Doubt (but not as much) it as it is most of the way to be CA East.
GA is drifting blue but I think 2024 for anything remotely purple. 2028 for competitive.
Reasoning for my original predictions is
PA is just "A bridge too far"
and AZ is just California Southeast. It does not help McSally appears to be a boat anchor.
Not saying any of those states will flip, I am just saying most to least likely, but it doesn't mean that they WILL flip.
And then order of Blue states most likely to flip red:
1. Minnesota
2. Nevada
3. New Hampshire
4. Maine
5. Virginia
6. New Mexico
7. Colorado
I don't know where you got these crazily wrong opinions. I am in New Mexico and Trump is going to lose big here, well over 10% less than Biden. NO chance of its going red. These blue to red flips were the wishful thinking of the Republican campaign this summer when they were planning out a strategy for winning. Unluckily for them crcumstances have changed and it's not likely any one of these blue states will flip.
Trump Counties: 365,714 (57%)
Clinton Counties: 281,723 (43%)
I dont think that really means that much...it shows the counties but not the vote by party, these could be Biden voters in those Trump counties. That's how it pretty much happens throughout out the US.
I reside in Pennsylvania and as a Democratic Party member I worry about our commonwealth, The Keystone State. I want Pennsylvania to be on the side of decency and equal justice and racial equality under the law, and would be delighted if it was indeed Biden's to lose, but I am concerned and I don't think anyone should take anything for granted.
Trump is intensely focusing his white grievance and cultural war campaign, here, to increase the turnout of those who live in all the smallish working class towns and communities that dot our state, between Philadelphia and Pittsburgh. Since Election Day 2016, Republicans have also shrunk the registered Democratic advantage in Pennsylvania by nearly 200,000 voters. He only won Pennsylvania by 44,292 votes in 2016 but still????
I readily admit that is about the extent of my knowledge regarding the "numbers" and I have no ability to analyze all those others one sees and reads about. There must be something, though, between the numbers and the constant ugly, divisive, fear mongering and finger pointing lies Trump dumps here. His toxic type of campaigning has been actively poisoning Pennsylvania since the last election, and I think he and his loyalists see some kind of path to eke out again to the electoral college. Pennsylvanians may yet again be damned by Trump's hate & anger and slash & burn campaign to our country's capital.
Last edited by corpgypsy; 10-12-2020 at 08:08 AM..
I reside in Pennsylvania and as a Democratic Party member I worry about our commonwealth, The Keystone State. I want Pennsylvania to be on the side of decency and equal justice and racial equality under the law, and would be delighted if it was indeed Biden's to lose, but I am concerned and I don't think anyone should take anything for granted.
Trump is intensely focusing his white grievance and cultural war campaign, here, to increase the turnout of those who live in all the smallish working class towns and communities that dot our state, between Philadelphia and Pittsburgh. Since Election Day 2016, Republicans have also shrunk the registered Democratic advantage in Pennsylvania by nearly 200,000 voters. He only won Pennsylvania by 44,292 votes in 2016 but still????
I readily admit that is about the extent of my knowledge regarding the "numbers" and I have no ability to analyze all those others one sees and reads about. There must be something, though, between the numbers and the constant ugly, divisive, fear mongering and finger pointing lies Trump dumps here. His toxic type of campaigning has been actively poisoning Pennsylvania since the last election, and I think he and his loyalists see some kind of path to eke out again to the electoral college. Pennsylvanians may yet again be damned by Trump's hate & anger and slash & burn campaign to our country's capital.
I share your fears 100%. I'm trying to stay optimistic but I continue to see a disturbing amount of large, obnoxious Trump signs and flags going up as each day goes by, and I'm in Bucks County, a suburban bellwether. I have a sinking feeling that fear, paranoia and prejudice will win in white suburbia yet again.
The mail in voting fraud that's being allowed in PA may win it for Bin and that's all.
The average American does not walk into a convenience store and steal a bottle of soda and a bag of chips just because no one is looking.
Yet Trump supporters want you to believe that millions of Democrats are going to commit a felony. Nevermind that Trump asked his supporters in states like NC to do exactly that.
I share your fears 100%. I'm trying to stay optimistic but I continue to see a disturbing amount of large, obnoxious Trump signs and flags going up as each day goes by, and I'm in Bucks County, a suburban bellwether. I have a sinking feeling that fear, paranoia and prejudice will win in white suburbia yet again.
^^^Totally understand. My largest concerns remain the small towns. I have cautious hope for suburbia, but those signs, I understand. They are all over our suburban areas, as well, here in western Pa. And we were burned in 2016. Thinking 2018 helps me
Here is a link to an in depth article in the NYT regarding Pennsylvania and our small towns between Philadelphia and Pittsburgh(where I reside). Perhaps you have already seen it.
President Trump’s narrowing path to victory in Pennsylvania, and the country, runs through small towns like Olyphant, where Dave Mitchko’s street might be quieter if not for the large sign he put on his front lawn urging supporters of the president to honk when they pass.
Trump signs are Mr. Mitchko’s thing, and his front yard has become something of an informal sign depot for Republicans in greater northeastern Pennsylvania. He estimates that he’s given away more than 26,000 signs this year. And his efforts were rewarded by the campaign with tarmac invitations for recent visits to the region by both Mr. Trump and Vice President Mike Pence, as well as a spot driving in the presidential motorcade. Mr. Mitchko wore a suit and a Trumpian red tie for the occasion.
“Your area — this has always been a Democrat area, and yet the votes for Trump here are through the roof,” Mr. Trump bragged that August day.
Quote:
As Mr. Trump’s disregard for science and health guidelines during the pandemic has increasingly repelled college-educated white voters, the president’s last refuge and perhaps best hope is to maximize the turnout of working-class white voters, including former Democrats like Mr. Mitchko, whose regular Facebook postings showcase his full embrace of the culture wars of the Trump era.
Quote:
“I’m not worried about nobody. They better be worried,” Mr. Mitchko said. Who exactly are “they”? “From what they say on TV, the Black Lives Matter people, rioters, the looters.”
Pennsylvania Senator Casey, “One consequence of being a party that wants to embrace diversity is you’re going to lose white voters. “I think that’s just a reality.”
In 2020, that makes this septuagenarian sad.
Last edited by corpgypsy; 10-13-2020 at 07:59 AM..
Pennsylvania Senator Casey, “One consequence of being a party that wants to embrace diversity is you’re going to lose white voters. “I think that’s just a reality.”
In 2020, that makes this septuagenarian sad.
Well, the problem is that the democrat party doesn't simply embrace diversity, they push it onto people who couldn't care less about it.
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