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Location: In a city within a state where politicians come to get their PHDs in Corruption
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dspguy
I think it has more to do with polls aging out. I think at this point they want polls that are 7 days old or less. That's the oscillation we've seen for a while (since July). Back then, the cutoff was about 3 weeks. Then 2 weeks, then 1 week. Many pollsters have increased their frequency of polling in the last month. However, you have some polls with Biden up +10 showing in the same week that the Biden +2 polls dropped out. Then you see the Biden +10 polls age out and the Biden +2 new polls be added.
Let's take a closer look at the current polls counted by RCP for Pennsylvania and some that have dropped off:
Last Emerson: Biden +5 (dropped)
Last Monmouth: Biden +11 (dropped)
Last YouGov: Biden +7 (dropped)
Last NYTimes: Biden +8 (dropped)
Last ABC: Biden +9 (dropped)
Last FoxNews: Biden +7 (dropped)
The average of the dropped polls are Biden +7.8. The average of the drop of the updated polls 0.6 points.
It drop has more to do with aged out polls than it does with polls updating to be less favorable to Biden. Now, I do expect the next set of polls released from those 6 that aged out to be less than Biden +7.8. However, it is more likely this drop in polls is due to just the mechanics of how RCP works.
13 days to go. We'll find out soon enough.
Yup. It also has to do with mix of polls. Trafalgar/Rasmussen are much more friendly to Trump than let's say Quinn./CNN.
Lead up to 4.9% as of right now, and their oldest poll that figures into the average is Trafalgar. Unless it comes out again soon, lead will be up even more.
He gave Trump about a 30% chance of winning. That's means he'd win about 1 out of every 3 times. So while he wasn't a favorite, he had a plausible chance.
Right now Trump has about a 1 in 10 chance of winning. That's a huge difference. In short, he was lucky in 2016; this year he'd have to be amazingly lucky.
Don't discredit a Trump victory. You'd be surprised how many are pissed at the left's handling of BLM, ANTIFA, riots, looting, assaults, etc. Don't think people will continue to put up with it.
Don't discredit a Trump victory. You'd be surprised how many are pissed at the left's handling of BLM, ANTIFA, riots, looting, assaults, etc. Don't think people will continue to put up with it.
Upset not only with the left's handling of such things, but the mere existence of such things. No sane person would think that rioting, looting, and arson are good methods of protesting.
Upset not only with the left's handling of such things, but the mere existence of such things. No sane person would think that rioting, looting, and arson are good methods of protesting.
Exactly. Here in Seattle, business owners simply cannot defend themselves from these thieves, because of the dumb city council. No, you break into my business, your life ends. End of story.
Upset not only with the left's handling of such things, but the mere existence of such things. No sane person would think that rioting, looting, and arson are good methods of protesting.
Of course, but 99% of the left agrees with this as well.
Of course, but 99% of the left agrees with this as well.
You wouldn't have known that by their reaction to it.
- Summer of Love
- Zero mention at DNC
- People won't be comfortable until we are comfortable
- The riots won't stop
- No one said protesting needs to be peaceful
Etc, etc.
Not to mention the fact that they are pushing the idea that police are systemically racist and should be defunded.
You wouldn't have known that by their reaction to it.
- Summer of Love
- Zero mention at DNC
- People won't be comfortable until we are comfortable
- The riots won't stop
- No one said protesting needs to be peaceful
Etc, etc.
Not to mention the fact that they are pushing the idea that police are systemically racist and should be defunded.
Nah, that dog won't hunt.
You are selectively picking themes from the left, but that is not indicative of most Democrats. Most Democrats do not support rioting or an actual removal of funds from police departments.
It's like you spent a month watching Fox News but don't actually know any Democrats.
You are selectively picking themes from the left, but that is not indicative of most Democrats. Most Democrats do not support rioting or an actual removal of funds from police departments.
It's like you spent a month watching Fox News but don't actually know any Democrats.
Would you agree that the overall party platform is set forth at the convention?
There was a CONSIOUS DECISION to not mention the riots or any violence at all. It was simply a parade of identity politics issues.
YOU may not support it, but the party you support obviously does, or did not think it was politically advantageous to MENTION IT ONCE at their convention.
Why do you think so many police unions, even in NYC are supporting Trump?
Just a coincidence?
If my party didn't mention the animal behavior this summer and tacitly supported it, I WOULD RE-THINK MY AFFILIATION WITH THEM!
Would you agree that the overall party platform is set forth at the convention?
There was a CONSIOUS DECISION to not mention the riots or any violence at all. It was simply a parade of identity politics issues.
YOU may not support it, but the party you support obviously does, or did not think it was politically advantageous to MENTION IT ONCE at their convention.
Why do you think so many police unions, even in NYC are supporting Trump?
Just a coincidence?
If my party didn't mention the animal behavior this summer and tacitly supported it, I WOULD RE-THINK MY AFFILIATION WITH THEM!
The problem here is that your own bias has assigned any and all rioting as a political statement of the Left/Democrats when it's not. You expect them to apologize for it as if they're leading the charge. Systemic racism is the issue that was being addressed by protests, not partisan politics. The riots weren't addressing anything except opportunistic crime, but again, not partisan.
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