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I will grant you that Biden's lead is down, but he has a floor of about 4 points that's been stable for months. At +3.8, he's still around that floor. I need to see him dip below that floor more substantially before I would be concerned he was seriously in danger of losing PA.
The scenarios in which he loses PA are quite small with a +9-10 national lead.
I will grant you that Biden's lead is down, but he has a floor of about 4 points that's been stable for months. At +3.8, he's still around that floor. I need to see him dip below that floor more substantially before I would be concerned he was seriously in danger of losing PA.
The scenarios in which he loses PA are quite small with a +9-10 national lead.
There is no world where Joe Biden wins the popular vote by 10 points...more than Barack Obama in 2008!
Common sense.
And if he REALLY WERE up 10 nationally, there is NO WAY he'd be down in Ohio and within 3+ in PA.
Common sense.
1. He isn't within three in PA.
2. Obama finished +7.6% in RCP, and the actual vote total was Obama +7.9%. If Biden is up 8.9% in RCP, why is it not reasonable to think he will finish with more votes than Obama did?
3. Common sense has nothing to do with this. Humans aren't born with an innate sense of which politicians will win which states.
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