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I don't put much stock in the early voting numbers this year - aside from a likely higher turn-out than 2016. Early voters (mail-in or in-person) is just one less vote that will be cast in-person on Election Day. If you ever watch John King on CNN when he uses that big screen to examine the votes in various counties in a state... this situation reminds me of what we saw in 2016:
King was perusing the board for Pennsylvania and he noted that 95%+ of the vote was in all these urban areas and other counties that had voted for Obama in 2012. And that Clinton was running out of places to get votes while there was still 25% left to count in more rurals areas. He could see that there was going to be an upset in PA and MI and WI.
He did the same thing in Alabama with the Jones/Moore Senate race. He was looking at the rural areas and saying "there just isn't enough votes left in those areas for Moore to overcome this deficit."
The early votes work in the same way. IF they benefit Democrats, it just means they start off with an "advantage" when the first returns are reported on Election Night. However, one could say it is like John King saying "well, 20% of the urban/suburban vote is counted already." On the other hand, we've never seen this amount of early voting. It is hard to really say what it means. I think it will be more difficult to accurately call toss-up states on Election Night. What if a state starts reporting only the in-person ballots since they aren't allowed to count mail-in votes until after polls are closed and after they handle in-person ballots? We might see Trump ahead in a state like PA only to have the mail-in ballots tally Biden over the top.
And of course we'll hear about "fraud" when/if that happens.
What I think we need to know is... which states are going to report mail-in ballots immediately. For example, if they count them at 12:01 am on election day before the polls open and that is part of the initial results the moment polls close at 7pm... or if they don't start counting them at all until 7pm on Election Day.
In terms of urban vote counts in Arizona, pragmatically the only thing that counts are the results from Maricopa & Pima counties. Win those and you've won Arizona. Period.
Mine says same on inquiry. But the news (and the law) said they started "counting" today. I'm thinking it is definitions - counted meaning that it is added into the numbers returned/accepted. "Tabulated" being actually scanned and votes assigned.
BTW MSNBC showed the sausage making this morning in a story on the county process. They pre-process ballots by photographing every envelope that comes in. The ballots are weighed to see if they are too light or heavy and some other stuff and bumped out if so. If the pass they are sent on to the county offices for further processing. They were literally flying by in the machine faster than the eye could detect. Pretty impressive.
The state SOS said that 90% of AZ's vote is expected by mail and the results from that will be announced at 8 pm MST on election night. It is possible that will be the end of the election at that point!
Last edited by Ponderosa; 10-21-2020 at 10:16 PM..
Mine says same on inquiry. But the news (and the law) said they started "counting" today. I'm thinking it is definitions - counted meaning that it is added into the numbers returned/accepted. "Tabulated" being actually scanned and votes assigned.
I'm wondering what this text file is they have like dumped from a database. Says Unofficial results for the General Election will be posted at 8 p.m. on November 3, 2020.
Dems still ahead in early voting in AZ.
Nice bump in the youth vote too.
“For the first time in state history, Arizona Democrats are outpacing Republicans in early voting with just five days left until Election Day.
...
According to KTAR, more than 137,000 Arizonans ages 18 to 29 years have either voted by mail or in person, marking a 55% increase.“
Dems still ahead in early voting in AZ.
Nice bump in the youth vote too.
“For the first time in state history, Arizona Democrats are outpacing Republicans in early voting with just five days left until Election Day.
...
According to KTAR, more than 137,000 Arizonans ages 18 to 29 years have either voted by mail or in person, marking a 55% increase.“
It's not going to tell you much about how AZ will turn out. AZ has a very high % of non party affiliated voters. How they vote(d) won't be known until next week.
There is no way for those voters to go vote in person. They can drop their ballot off in person on election day at their local polling site I have done that before.
PEVL has been available in Arizona since 1990's it's not a Democrat idea Republicans designed it.
Trumps attack on mail in ballots was a stupid idea will be one of his downfalls. You don't attack a system which you need people to use to vote for you.
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