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Old 10-31-2020, 05:11 PM
 
Location: az
14,165 posts, read 8,284,613 times
Reputation: 9582

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Despite record early-vote turnout around the country, there are warning signs for Biden. In Arizona, two-thirds of Latino registered voters have not yet cast a ballot. In Florida, half of Latino and Black registered voters have not yet voted but more than half of White voters have cast ballots, according to data from Catalist, a Democratic data firm. In Pennsylvania, nearly 75% of registered Black voters have not yet voted, the data shows.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/polit...ar/ar-BB1ayfa6


If that number is accurate Biden is in trouble here.

Some 22% of Arizona eligible voters are Hispanic.
https://www.pewresearch.org/hispanic...ction-arizona/

Clinton got 66% of the Hispanic vote in 2016 (Trump 28%)
https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tan...tinovoteyears/

Last edited by john3232; 10-31-2020 at 05:20 PM..
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Old 10-31-2020, 06:50 PM
 
13,619 posts, read 7,585,305 times
Reputation: 10319
Quote:
Originally Posted by john3232 View Post
Despite record early-vote turnout around the country, there are warning signs for Biden. In Arizona, two-thirds of Latino registered voters have not yet cast a ballot. In Florida, half of Latino and Black registered voters have not yet voted but more than half of White voters have cast ballots, according to data from Catalist, a Democratic data firm. In Pennsylvania, nearly 75% of registered Black voters have not yet voted, the data shows.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/polit...ar/ar-BB1ayfa6


If that number is accurate Biden is in trouble here.

Some 22% of Arizona eligible voters are Hispanic.
https://www.pewresearch.org/hispanic...ction-arizona/

Clinton got 66% of the Hispanic vote in 2016 (Trump 28%)
https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tan...tinovoteyears/
How do they know the demographics of the voter? I haven't seen any data from Maricopa county, and even less data from the Secretary of state's office. These early voting numbers only predict it's going to be a close election in many states.
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Old 10-31-2020, 07:27 PM
 
Location: az
14,165 posts, read 8,284,613 times
Reputation: 9582
Quote:
Originally Posted by kell490 View Post
How do they know the demographics of the voter? I haven't seen any data from Maricopa county, and even less data from the Secretary of state's office. These early voting numbers only predict it's going to be a close election in many states.



It's not one of the states mentioned in the below line so it's not clear where the Bloomberg article got the AZ data:
article:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/polit...ar/ar-BB1ayfa6


Georgia is one of only eight states in the country where people are asked their race or ethnicity on voter registration forms. The other states are: Alabama, Florida, Louisiana, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, and Tennessee.
https://whowhatwhy.org/2018/10/31/as...r-suppression/

Last edited by john3232; 10-31-2020 at 07:37 PM..
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Old 10-31-2020, 07:37 PM
 
13,619 posts, read 7,585,305 times
Reputation: 10319
Quote:
Originally Posted by john3232 View Post
It's not one of the states mentioned in the below line so it's not clear where the article got the AZ data :

Georgia is one of only eight states in the country where people are asked their race or ethnicity on voter registration forms. The other states are: Alabama, Florida, Louisiana, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, and Tennessee.
https://whowhatwhy.org/2018/10/31/as...r-suppression/
I was referring to the MSN link https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/polit...ar/ar-BB1ayfa6
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Old 10-31-2020, 07:40 PM
 
Location: Manchester NH
15,506 posts, read 6,489,610 times
Reputation: 4831
Quote:
Originally Posted by john3232 View Post
Despite record early-vote turnout around the country, there are warning signs for Biden. In Arizona, two-thirds of Latino registered voters have not yet cast a ballot. In Florida, half of Latino and Black registered voters have not yet voted but more than half of White voters have cast ballots, according to data from Catalist, a Democratic data firm. In Pennsylvania, nearly 75% of registered Black voters have not yet voted, the data shows.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/polit...ar/ar-BB1ayfa6


If that number is accurate Biden is in trouble here.

Some 22% of Arizona eligible voters are Hispanic.
https://www.pewresearch.org/hispanic...ction-arizona/

Clinton got 66% of the Hispanic vote in 2016 (Trump 28%)
https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tan...tinovoteyears/
Hispanics aren't trending towards Biden, whites are.

White people will doom trump and force president Biden into office.
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Old 10-31-2020, 07:41 PM
 
16,952 posts, read 16,836,358 times
Reputation: 10408
Quote:
Originally Posted by MESSENGERTOASCHERON View Post
We will all know soon enough the outcome here.
We can't forget the 30 mile long caravan of cars for Trump in Arizona!
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Old 10-31-2020, 07:47 PM
 
Location: az
14,165 posts, read 8,284,613 times
Reputation: 9582
Quote:
Originally Posted by kell490 View Post

I'm not sure where they got their data. So, how accurate? Anybody's guess.
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Old 10-31-2020, 08:56 PM
 
13,619 posts, read 7,585,305 times
Reputation: 10319
Quote:
Originally Posted by Winterfall8324 View Post
Hispanics aren't trending towards Biden, whites are.

White people will doom trump and force president Biden into office.
This is what the Lincoln Project goal was to pull white moderate Republicans away from Trump give them a place to go. According to them they only needed 6-7% they could put Biden in the White House. Will it be enough? I think so I'm starting to think this will turn out like Obama where if you look at RCP final polling AVG were under performing by 5-8% points in lot of states. The difference from 2016 to 2020 is Trump doing so much worse in Red States he had 10-15% polling advantage over Clinton where 2020 he has hardly held a 10% plus in many Red states over Biden.

Everyone is trying to compare 2016 I get why, but the 2020 race is so different Trump was not running on any record in 2016, Clinton was she was viewed as having to answer for mistakes she made being part of Obama administration.
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Old 10-31-2020, 11:19 PM
 
Location: Ca expat loving Idaho
5,267 posts, read 4,228,220 times
Reputation: 8145
Quote:
Originally Posted by kell490 View Post
This is what the Lincoln Project goal was to pull white moderate Republicans away from Trump give them a place to go. According to them they only needed 6-7% they could put Biden in the White House. Will it be enough? I think so I'm starting to think this will turn out like Obama where if you look at RCP final polling AVG were under performing by 5-8% points in lot of states. The difference from 2016 to 2020 is Trump doing so much worse in Red States he had 10-15% polling advantage over Clinton where 2020 he has hardly held a 10% plus in many Red states over Biden.

Everyone is trying to compare 2016 I get why, but the 2020 race is so different Trump was not running on any record in 2016, Clinton was she was viewed as having to answer for mistakes she made being part of Obama administration.
So now you’re not talking about Az anymore you’ve pivoted to the Red states. You need to just give it up Biden is going to lose bigley. He’s the worst candidate in our lifetime and will soon be indicted by the FBI.
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Old 11-01-2020, 01:09 AM
 
13,619 posts, read 7,585,305 times
Reputation: 10319
Quote:
Originally Posted by Finper View Post
So now you’re not talking about Az anymore you’ve pivoted to the Red states. You need to just give it up Biden is going to lose bigley. He’s the worst candidate in our lifetime and will soon be indicted by the FBI.
Trump won't be elected again not because of Biden because of the Pandemic.
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