Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
TargetSmart early voting returns when they don't get data which party is returning ballots they use their own modeling software to determine which part is returning ballots. IMO their data is flawed when it comes to early election returns.
As far as the Politico article they keep talking about mail in ballots the fact is all battleground states haven't changed their voting system at all. The same people who always mail in ballots will mail them in Republican or Democrat. Millions are also voting early in person likely Biden supporters as the DNC has pushed early voting. IMO Trump is going to come up short on election day for any big turnout. His hard core 30% maga rally base will show up on election day won't be enough.
TargetSmart early voting returns when they don't get data which party is returning ballots they use their own modeling software to determine which part is returning ballots. IMO their data is flawed when it comes to early election returns.
As far as the Politico article they keep talking about mail in ballots the fact is all battleground states haven't changed their voting system at all. The same people who always mail in ballots will mail them in Republican or Democrat. Millions are also voting early in person likely Biden supporters as the DNC has pushed early voting. IMO Trump is going to come up short on election day for any big turnout. His hard core 30% maga rally base will show up on election day won't be enough.
Trump will get millions of additional votes, over & above his "hard core 30% maga rally base", from other groups, who don't even like him...like me.
-He will get the RINO votes, that feel the Dems have surged too far left
-He'll get Conservative votes, even though they hate his wasteful spending
-He'll get 500,000 #walkaway votes from former Dems
-He'll get most of the law enforcement/firefighter votes
-He'll get most of the veteran vote
-He'll get more of the black vote than before
-He'll get more Latino votes than last time
-He'll get most of the votes of small/medium-sized business owners
-He'll get votes from people who were adversely impacted by the radical liberal rioting
-He'll get the religious vote, even though they hate his shaky character, ethics, & morals
-He'll get the votes of the right wing lunatic fringe who they won't even allow in to the Rally's
These are all the groups who'll make it close. There's millions who will vote for Trump, who don't like him, but they'll still vote for him because he's anti-socialism, anti-China, & anti-illegal immigration, & anti-riots/BLM. They know for certain that he'll do better on the economy than Biden/Harris.
Last edited by beach43ofus; 10-21-2020 at 08:11 AM..
“The instruments we have to gauge this race, the polling, our predictive models … are built around quote-unquote normal elections. And this is anything but a normal election,” said one Democratic operative.
TargetSmart early voting returns when they don't get data which party is returning ballots they use their own modeling software to determine which part is returning ballots. IMO their data is flawed when it comes to early election returns.
Only for states that do not report by Party ID.
In PA and FL, they got the receipts, and it is showing Dems under performing.
If you seriously think Trump has only a 7% chance of winning, you are smoking something.
To believe this, you'd either have to believe the RCP averages showed double digit leads in swing states, or you'd see Biden carrying states like Alaska and Wyoming etc.
It's absolute nonsense. These so-called "experts" are a total joke.
I totally agree. There are a ton of "shy" republicans out there who are afraid of getting their cars keyed, houses vandalized, or harassed at work.
Myself included. I am furthermore a NEW trump voter; voted LIB in 2016 but ended up finding Trump to be fairly conservative and pro-liberty. In any case, I never talk about politics with coworkers or anyone I know disagrees with me, because people's feelings just get hurt. This is why I am so active here, I guess... Need to vent somewhere :P
I totally agree. There are a ton of "shy" republicans out there who are afraid of getting their cars keyed, houses vandalized, or harassed at work.
Myself included. I am furthermore a NEW trump voter; voted LIB in 2016 but ended up finding Trump to be fairly conservative and pro-liberty. In any case, I never talk about politics with coworkers or anyone I know disagrees with me, because people's feelings just get hurt. This is why I am so active here, I guess... Need to vent somewhere :P
Exactly. I've learned never to discuss politics at work or with family.
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
