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I am not predicting that President Trump is going to win this election with 326 electoral votes. Neither is Newt Gingrich exactly, in the article below. But he does think that looks about right and that the "Left Is Going To Be Terribly Shocked".
Newt Gingrich said the left is going to be shocked by a Trump victory and said an electoral map showing the incumbent president with 326 electoral votes seems right to him in an interview Wednesday night with FNC's Sean Hannity.
"He has a better likelihood than he did at this stage in 2016 when he was clearly behind and closing rapidly," Gingrich said. "The people I trust the most, the pollsters that have been the most accurate over the last 5 or 6 years who seem to understand the dynamics of the age of Trump."
"I saw today the first electoral college map that made sense to me and it showed Trump at 326 electoral votes plus," Gingrich said. "I think that is probably about right. I think the left is going to be terribly shocked."
If the popular vote projections being presented by Rassmussen are close to right, then this could happen.
I am not predicting that President Trump is going to win this election with 326 electoral votes. Neither is Newt Gingrich exactly, in the article below. But he does think that looks about right and that the "Left Is Going To Be Terribly Shocked".
If the popular vote projections being presented by Rassmussen are close to right, then this could happen.
Rasmussen is a blind squirrel that found a nut in 2016. Even in October of 2016, they were saying Trump would win the popular vote by 7%.
Hillary had a 1.9% RCP score six days out. Which means RCP six days out showed very close the results six days later. Do you know what Biden's is?
National polling was accurate in 2016. So were many of the state polls.
"National polls only measure the popular vote. Clinton did, in fact, win the national popular vote by 2.1 points. The average of the 13 final national polls had Clinton ahead by 3.1 points, which was only a point off the actual result."
The problem is that EC skews to the GOP and gives them an unfair advantage. Dems have to win by over 5 points in the popular to win the EC, and Biden is well over that.
From the Rasmussen link which, for now, gives Biden 1% advantage:
Quote:
Trump earns 79% support among Republicans and leads by three points among voters not affiliated with either major party.
This is exactly what I heard from C-Span callers last week - undecideds 3:1 for Trump. And, that was exactly what I was hearing in 2016, plus a large share of Bernie voters going to Trump - which on its face made no sense. I'll believe a Biden win when it happens. I don't believe these wide margins favoring Biden are real - and I am a never-Trumper. Either polls are flawed or people are lying to the pollsters.
From the Rasmussen link which, for now, gives Biden 1% advantage:This is exactly what I heard from C-Span callers last week - undecideds 3:1 for Trump. And, that was exactly what I was hearing in 2016, plus a large share of Bernie voters going to Trump - which on its face made no sense. I'll believe a Biden win when it happens. I don't believe these wide margins favoring Biden are real - and I am a never-Trumper. Either polls are flawed or people are lying to the pollsters.
You don't believe the other polls but you believe Rasmussen, at least it wasn't Tragfalgar.
How about all the other polls that show Biden up 7%.
National polling was accurate in 2016. So were many of the state polls.
"National polls only measure the popular vote. Clinton did, in fact, win the national popular vote by 2.1 points. The average of the 13 final national polls had Clinton ahead by 3.1 points, which was only a point off the actual result."
The problem is that EC skews to the GOP and gives them an unfair advantage. Dems have to win by over 5 points in the popular to win the EC, and Biden is well over that.
From the Rasmussen link which, for now, gives Biden 1% advantage:This is exactly what I heard from C-Span callers last week - undecideds 3:1 for Trump. And, that was exactly what I was hearing in 2016, plus a large share of Bernie voters going to Trump - which on its face made no sense. I'll believe a Biden win when it happens. I don't believe these wide margins favoring Biden are real - and I am a never-Trumper. Either polls are flawed or people are lying to the pollsters.
So you believe some polling (The C-Span callers), just not actual methodical polling that is done in a scientific way? And you might believe Rasmussen, which is a junk pollster who is attempting to do scientific polling but does it badly?
So you believe some polling (The C-Span callers), just not actual methodical polling that is done in a scientific way? And you might believe Rasmussen, which is a junk pollster who is attempting to do scientific polling but does it badly?
Please don't be sarcastic. I explained my reasoning - or rather lack thereof. I am an evidence-based person. In 2016, I was following 538 and other polls. Hillary had a 30% chance of losing. Based on Nate Silver's (and other) statistical analyses, I believed Hillary would win - even though Nate was consistent in saying she "could" lose. When the returns went sideways so early in the evening contrary to expectations, I was shocked and sick to my stomach. I knew Trump would be a disaster. No one could imagine how truly awful he would be.
Yes, statistically it's unlikely there will be a repeat of 2016. Yes, in many categories Biden is polling better. That said that last minute voting for Trump on election day could change everything.
I don't blame the pollsters for being off in 2016. They were reporting what the voter told them. Turns out, the voters were lying in some of those states.
Yes, the national vote, was in line with the polling. But, the Blue Wall - all three states - going for Trump was a kick in the gut.
So, I remain a skeptic - even though, I'm pretty much a square peg/square hole person. Yes, Biden should win based on what we know so far - but will he? What I heard on C-Span last week was kick in the gut and a 2016 deja vu.
Now, I did see tonight on Ari Melber an interview of four 2016 Trump voters now voting for Biden. His disgusting personality, divisiveness, and the hit to the economy b/c of COVID were the reasons. But one of these voters, for sure, if Covid hadn't caused so much unemployment, she'd be voting for him again. For me, Covid is the least of the issues. He handled it badly, but the impact on the economy would have been bad no matter who is in office.
.....ah.... enough.....
I just hope this year 2016 turns out to be the outlier.
Last edited by Ariadne22; 10-29-2020 at 09:01 PM..
Please don't be sarcastic. I explained my reasoning - or rather lack thereof. I am an evidence-based person. In 2016, I was following 538 and other polls. Hillary had a 30% chance of losing. Based on Nate Silver's (and other) statistical analyses, I believed Hillary would win - even though Nate was consistent in saying she "could" lose. When the returns went sideways so early in the evening contrary to expectations, I was shocked and sick to my stomach. I knew Trump would be a disaster. No one could imagine how truly awful he would be.
Yes, statistically it's unlikely there will be a repeat of 2016. Yes, in many categories Biden is polling better. That said that last minute voting for Trump on election day could change everything.
I don't blame the pollsters for being off in 2016. They were reporting what the voter told them. Turns out, the voters were lying in some of those states.
Yes, the national vote, was in line with the polling. But, the Blue Wall - all three states - going for Trump was a kick in the gut.
So, I remain a skeptic - even though, I'm pretty much a square peg/square hole person. Yes, Biden should win based on what we know so far - but will he? What I heard on C-Span last week was kick in the gut and a 2016 deja vu.
Now, I did see tonight on Ari Melber an interview of four 2016 Trump voters now voting for Biden. His disgusting personality, divisiveness, and the hit to the economy b/c of COVID were the reasons. But one of these voters, for sure, if Covid hadn't caused so much unemployment, she'd be voting for him again. For me, Covid is the least of the issues. He handled it badly, but the impact on the economy would have been bad no matter who is in office.
.....ah.... enough.....
I just hope this year 2016 turns out to be the outlier.
Fair enough. You seem like a reasonable person. I should point out that the pollsters working the blue wall states in 2016 were mostly small, local pollsters of questionable quality. This year, Michigan, Wisconsin and PA have gotten the attention of big pollsters with solid track records. I'm not saying it's easy to poll accurately in 2020, but there is reason to believe there is a smaller likelihood of a fundamental polling error in key states. And no matter what, if the popular vote is within 1-2% of where it currently stands, it is very unlikely that Trump can win. Winning the EC but losing the popular vote by 6% is almost impossible.
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