Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
It is a poll, and this is just one day, and there is only one poll that ultimately matters. But after Trump fell off strongly in the polls about the time he contracted the Wuhan Virus, he has been bouncing back strong ever since. And that has been shown in many polls.
Ultimately these national popular vote polls will not matter and it will come down to a few "battleground state" outcomes. But if President Trump wins the national popular vote, who here believes he will not also win the election?
Americans were early voting when Rasmussen was at Biden +12. And they've been early voting when it was Biden +5 and now Trump +1.
The only poll that matters when we come back and talk about how well or poorly RCP and 538 did will be the final polls. However, it is quite possible that in 2016, lots of people were early voting the weekend after Comey's announcement about reinvestigating Clinton's emails. And when she was exonerated again, maybe 10M people voted under those circumstances. And the polls shifted back to Clinton's favor in some states but people had already voted.
That same disparity with the polls vs result might happen this time. Hell, they are saying something like 82M Americans have already voted. That is likely more than half the final tally. So if there was a big shift suddenly to Biden or Trump in the polls, it might not matter.
Location: In a city within a state where politicians come to get their PHDs in Corruption
2,907 posts, read 2,074,354 times
Reputation: 4478
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ariadne22
From the Rasmussen link which, for now, gives Biden 1% advantage:This is exactly what I heard from C-Span callers last week - undecideds 3:1 for Trump. And, that was exactly what I was hearing in 2016, plus a large share of Bernie voters going to Trump - which on its face made no sense. I'll believe a Biden win when it happens. I don't believe these wide margins favoring Biden are real - and I am a never-Trumper. Either polls are flawed or people are lying to the pollsters.
Trump winning undecideds by 3% isn't the same as him winning undecideds by 3:1 margin. Surely this was a misprint by you, no?
Never, ever trust polls. I can even go back to the 1980 election and prove that the polling was wrong. That year, it was Jimmy Carter running for a second term, who was challenged by Republican Ronald Reagan & independent John Anderson. This is how the polls looked in the month prior to election day:
Reagan 40%
Carter 44%
Anderson 9%
Never, ever trust polls. I can even go back to the 1980 election and prove that the polling was wrong. That year, it was Jimmy Carter running for a second term, who was challenged by Republican Ronald Reagan & independent John Anderson. This is how the polls looked in the month prior to election day:
Reagan 40%
Carter 44%
Anderson 9%
Reagan ended up winning by a landslide!
Well, we are not talking anymore about polls one month out. It is 4 days to election day. If you had figures from 1980 that showed polling 4 days out then your post might have had some relevance. It doesn't
Trump winning undecideds by 3% isn't the same as him winning undecideds by 3:1 margin. Surely this was a misprint by you, no?
No. In my anecdotal analysis of the undecided callers, three would be Trumpers, one Biden. The Trump voters included a few blacks, and black and white former Bernie voters, and disaffected Democrats. 2016 deja vu. Keep in mind C-Span may field in two/three hours about 25 calls I'm guessing. Lines are divided Trump, Biden, Undecideds. So, of the eight undecideds six for Trump, two Biden. That was about a week ago. I haven't listened lately.
I'll believe a Biden win when it happens. Still haven't recovered from 2016. Why anyone would elect an obvious fool like Trump, blatantly unfit for any elected office, is unfathomable. And, we've been living with his destructive and divisive insane and chaotic words, tweets, behavior and policies ever since. It's forever diminished my respect for Americans. They really aren't too smart.
Last edited by Ariadne22; 10-30-2020 at 01:27 PM..
Never, ever trust polls. I can even go back to the 1980 election and prove that the polling was wrong. That year, it was Jimmy Carter running for a second term, who was challenged by Republican Ronald Reagan & independent John Anderson. This is how the polls looked in the month prior to election day:
Reagan 40%
Carter 44%
Anderson 9%
Reagan ended up winning by a landslide!
Yeah, the MONTH prior to election day.
This is the poll the week prior:
Reagan 47%
Carter 44%
Anderson 8%
Nice cherry picking you did there, lol.
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
