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I think another possibility isn't a state at all...
Maine Congressional District #2 might become VERY important if Trump wins PA. What if Biden picks up WI and MI while Trump keeps FL, NC and PA... but AZ went for Biden. The map looks like this:
Biden 269 - 268 Trump
Only uncalled vote is ME CD2. That went for Trump in 2016. It is a very "swingy" district right now. 538 has it at a toss-up. RCP has it as a toss-up. If Biden wins that single vote, he'd win the election in this scenario. If Trump wins it, it goes to the House. As I broke down a while ago in another thread... that could lead to a constitutional crisis since it quite possible Trump doesn't have 26 state delegations (Biden likely will not). And the Constitution requires an absolute majority of House delegations (26+) to secure the Presidency. If the seat is vacant, it MIGHT go to the VP selected by the Senate. But if the Senate is 50/50 or selects Harris, Republicans will fight to show Harris isn't a US citizen due to her parents (we've heard that story before).
Which might mean the Speaker of the House acts as President until another election is held in 2021? Hard to say.
Honestly, that would make for great drama. Not what we need right now. But, that all might come down to a single Congressional District's vote.
I think Pennsylvania is going to determine the election this year, assuming that Trump takes Florida. Even though Trump won WI and MI last time, the polls show him further down in those two states. PA is close and Florida looks like it's leaning towards Trump. I think Trump's campaign sees this, which is why he's doing rally after rally in PA.
Do rallies actually change anyone's mind, though? It seems to me that rallies are only for people who were already voting for the candidate in question, not for curious undecideds. You can only rally the base so many times before it loses all effectiveness, if there was ever really much to begin with. Bases alone don't win elections.
We won't know PA but we will know FL. This election in FL is no different from any other, there has always been heavy absentee and mail-in voting in this state and they count the ballots well in advance.
Unless it is an extremely tight race like 2000 or something, then they can determine a projected winner for FL on election night.
Yes, we will know the direction of the election even from red states, because if their margins for Trump are smaller than 2016, that's a bad sign for him. We will also have several swing states that have been counting early votes as they arrive and will dump that data on election night. We won't know every state, but we'll have a pretty good idea of where the momentum is, and perhaps even who the likely winner will be... unless it's super close, which I think is unlikely.
I'm with the others- Michigan is likely gone for Trump, so he cannot lose Florida. On the flip side not winning Pa means Biden has to outperform in a couple of states where he is polling lower than Pa.
That said, if GA or NC flip and Az flips, Biden will have about a 27 EV cushion to absorb losing Pa or the combo of Wisconsin and Michigan. Wisconsin is the one I think Trump has the best shot of taking.
I think another possibility isn't a state at all...
Maine Congressional District #2 might become VERY important if Trump wins PA. What if Biden picks up WI and MI while Trump keeps FL, NC and PA... but AZ went for Biden. The map looks like this:
Biden 269 - 268 Trump
Only uncalled vote is ME CD2. That went for Trump in 2016. It is a very "swingy" district right now. 538 has it at a toss-up. RCP has it as a toss-up. If Biden wins that single vote, he'd win the election in this scenario. If Trump wins it, it goes to the House. As I broke down a while ago in another thread... that could lead to a constitutional crisis since it quite possible Trump doesn't have 26 state delegations (Biden likely will not). And the Constitution requires an absolute majority of House delegations (26+) to secure the Presidency. If the seat is vacant, it MIGHT go to the VP selected by the Senate. But if the Senate is 50/50 or selects Harris, Republicans will fight to show Harris isn't a US citizen due to her parents (we've heard that story before).
Which might mean the Speaker of the House acts as President until another election is held in 2021? Hard to say.
Honestly, that would make for great drama. Not what we need right now. But, that all might come down to a single Congressional District's vote.
That scenario would fit right into the hellscape that is 2020.
I think another possibility isn't a state at all...
Maine Congressional District #2 might become VERY important if Trump wins PA. What if Biden picks up WI and MI while Trump keeps FL, NC and PA... but AZ went for Biden. The map looks like this:
Biden 269 - 268 Trump
Only uncalled vote is ME CD2. That went for Trump in 2016. It is a very "swingy" district right now. 538 has it at a toss-up. RCP has it as a toss-up. If Biden wins that single vote, he'd win the election in this scenario. If Trump wins it, it goes to the House. As I broke down a while ago in another thread... that could lead to a constitutional crisis since it quite possible Trump doesn't have 26 state delegations (Biden likely will not). And the Constitution requires an absolute majority of House delegations (26+) to secure the Presidency. If the seat is vacant, it MIGHT go to the VP selected by the Senate. But if the Senate is 50/50 or selects Harris, Republicans will fight to show Harris isn't a US citizen due to her parents (we've heard that story before).
Which might mean the Speaker of the House acts as President until another election is held in 2021? Hard to say.
Honestly, that would make for great drama. Not what we need right now. But, that all might come down to a single Congressional District's vote.
Hopefully that will not happen. We really do not need to drag out election fight for weeks or months or even years.
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