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While I agree, if you had to pick a single state that is most important in the race when considering its worth to both candidates, it is Pennsylvania.
I think it’s a close call between WI and PA for that.
Right now 538 has WI slightly higher as a single state predictor. Both candidates are projected to have less than 15% chance of winning if they lose WI.
I think it’s a close call between WI and PA for that.
Right now 538 has WI slightly higher as a single state predictor. Both candidates are projected to have less than 15% chance of winning if they lose WI.
I agree with skydog on PA. Trump absolutely needs it, Biden has other options but his best chances are by winning PA. WI is only 10 EC votes, so not quite as critical as PA.
I agree with skydog on PA. Trump absolutely needs it, Biden has other options but his best chances are by winning PA. WI is only 10 EC votes, so not quite as critical as PA.
I think part of what they are factoring in with WI is that, if Biden loses it, that means he’s likely lost PA as well since the polls are closer in PA.
I think part of what they are factoring in with WI is that, if Biden loses it, that means he’s likely lost PA as well since the polls are closer in PA.
i don't necessarily see WI & PA hitched to the same wagon. Energy is a huge issue in PA but not so much in WI so that one particular issue that can sway the results.
Biden's best chance is to regain the blue wall, PA, MI, WI. I can see all three going to Biden but I don't see Trump doing a complete sweep as he did in '16, not going happen again.
Everyone in my immediate family will vote in person for Trump, as will I. In the hour-long drive from Bucks County to an adjacent county yesterday I noted many, many signs for Trump along the way. There was just one sign for Biden. This may mean nothing at all, but it's worth mentioning.
I'm not sure how it will go in the rust-belt areas of the state, especially now that Biden spilled his oil plan, but here in Bucks County there is a very significant Russian population, most of whom will likely vote for Trump.
I think for Trump keeping AZ/NC/GA/FL is paramount.
Trump could grab PA and if he loses either one of those Sun-Belts he could very well lose and he pretty much will if he doesn't grab WI in the case of just losing 1 Sun Belt state.
This would be interesting although very unlikely but Trump could win WI/MI/PA again but still lose if he were to lose FL plus one of either AZ/NC/GA. If he were to lose 2 or more of the Sun Belt states then there is no realistic path to victory for Trump.
On the other hand, if Trump keeps all 4 Sun Belt states he would barring something unseen only need to win one of the three Rust Belt states (WI/MI/PA) assuming everything stays the way it did in 2016 which is very possible to even likely. WI and PA are doable for Trump if his base turns out like they likely will plus there isn't as high of a turnout in PA or WI as expected.
Likewise, for Biden it is WI/MI/PA and MN because if Trump can keep the Sun Belt states then Biden would probably need all four of them to win.
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