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Only way for the democrats to have a chance is to have a guy like Jimmy Jordon run & win the primary. I do think Jordon is licking his chops at a chance to becoming a Senator and having a bigger stage. I'm sure a few others will decide to run but right now I'd put Jordon as the favorite. Josh Mandel is probably still hanging around & will jump in the race as he ran against Brown in 2012 & lost.
Ohio voted against Biden by 8%, so the chance they would elect a Democratic senator in Biden's midterm seems very remote. If the Republicans choose an especially polarizing nominee like Jim Jordan, there could be a contest worth watching. Probably the seat would be held easily by a more "standard" Republican.
Ohio voted against Biden by 8%, so the chance they would elect a Democratic senator in Biden's midterm seems very remote. If the Republicans choose an especially polarizing nominee like Jim Jordan, there could be a contest worth watching. Probably the seat would be held easily by a more "standard" Republican.
True. The Democrats only have to defend the Warnock Georgia seat. They have better chances at picking up North Carolina and Pennsylvania if they choose good candidates. Wisconsin could also be in play since Ron Johnson is not a good senator for a state that went for Biden. Florida could be interesting if Ivanka runs in primaries and bloodies Marco.
I agree with your assessment of Ohio, if the R’s choose Jordan it could be a race for the Ds
True. The Democrats only have to defend the Warnock Georgia seat. They have better chances at picking up North Carolina and Pennsylvania if they choose good candidates. Wisconsin could also be in play since Ron Johnson is not a good senator for a state that went for Biden. Florida could be interesting if Ivanka runs in primaries and bloodies Marco.
I agree with your assessment of Ohio, if the R’s choose Jordan it could be a race for the Ds
Democrats are also defending potentially vulnerable seats in Arizona (Kelly), Nevada (Cortez-Masto) and New Hampshire (Hassan).
In Florida I doubt Ivanka Trump will end up running for Senate despite the chatter and Rubio should be favored in the general election as well.
Democrats are also defending potentially vulnerable seats in Arizona (Kelly), Nevada (Cortez-Masto) and New Hampshire (Hassan).
In Florida I doubt Ivanka Trump will end up running for Senate despite the chatter and Rubio should be favored in the general election as well.
I don’t think the Nevada and NH seats are that vulnerable. probably as vulnerable as Ohio is to the R’s Arizona could be but the party right now is imploding attacking the Governor which would actually make the best R choice, if they choose another MAGA person they will lose again. I think Florida under Rubio is pretty safe as I said unless it gets bloody in primaries.
Ohio voted against Biden by 8%, so the chance they would elect a Democratic senator in Biden's midterm seems very remote. If the Republicans choose an especially polarizing nominee like Jim Jordan, there could be a contest worth watching. Probably the seat would be held easily by a more "standard" Republican.
Nonetheless, the Dems chances of winning the seat got a whole lot better. Up against a rather liked incumbent Senator, they had very minimal chance.
The Republicans will pick a far right/polarizing person like Jim Jordan if not Jim Jordan. It will just happen as the Tea Party & MAGA factions of the Republican Party dominate over the center right/RINO/Never Trumper faction of the Party.
The center right Republicans will be less enthused with their new candidate, though, possibly leading to a lower than desired voter turnout on their side.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bu2
It does. You just choose to remain ignorant and repeat DNC talking points. Maryland did get sued for those districts you describe.
Look, I get you dont like being wrong, but you are. Thats a fact. I even explained why
You arent getting a Republican district in the Baltimore/DC suburbs unless you gerrymander in favor or Rs.
Quote:
The Democratic gerrymanders in Texas in 1990 and North Carolina in 2000 have probably never been topped. And Democrats controlled state legislatures across the south into the 1990s and 2000s and, in the case of Alabama, just recently because of gerrymanders.
Your argument assumes a gerrymander rather than proving one, and the bigger flaw is that it has the same problem as Maryland.
Quote:
In Texas, the Democratic seats got thrown out about 3 times in the 90s. They kept drawing illegal ones. In Harris County (Houston), they had to nearly triple the number of voter precincts to deal with all the gerrymanders.
precincts are irrelevant to gerrymandering, so im not sure what you actually tried to sayt here.
Ohio voted against Biden by 8%, so the chance they would elect a Democratic senator in Biden's midterm seems very remote. If the Republicans choose an especially polarizing nominee like Jim Jordan, there could be a contest worth watching. Probably the seat would be held easily by a more "standard" Republican.
The also voted 8 points Trump in 2016 and re-elected Strickland (who is not an R light or apologetic Dem) in 2018. As I mentioned upthread- it will take a certain type of Dem and that would not be a true corporatist or a SJW.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Beach Sportsfan
Florida could be interesting if Ivanka runs in primaries and bloodies Marco.
I agree with your assessment of Ohio, if the R’s choose Jordan it could be a race for the Ds
I think someone like Gaetz is equally likely to primary Rubio- that is probably some Democrats' wet dream. Rs only have a thin Fl advantage but they have proven capable of fully exploiting it in each and every election while Dems keep trying to draft a new playbook. One thing South Texas and South Florida proved in 2020 is that Dem voting collapses when they try to go remote or media only.
He isn't there with Romney or Sasse as anti-Trump Republicans. But he's not really with the most loyal pro-Trump, election was stolen group think of the Party either. He also isn't a silent Senator, and a rather younger Republican one and he had ambitions above the Senate.
Can he tow a fine line between the two groups, emerge out of a primary battle and win re-election of his seat in 2022, and then be in a good place that he can run again for President in 2024?
Shelby (if he runs, announcement expected soon), Murkowski, Boozman, Crapo, Grassley (if he runs, he would be 95 when his term ends), Young, Moran, Hoeven, Lankford, Scott, Thune, Lee, and Blunt (given MO's shift to the right in recent years) should all be fine...
Shelby and Grassley are both in their 80's and if they decide not to run then GOPers have two new senators to try for. Given that Joni Ernst's seat was at times a tossup (she won by 7% despite most polls saying a clear tossup) I would guess Grassley's seat could potentially be competitive, although both, especially Alabama's should be R holds.
Kennedy should be a favorite in LA, but Dem Governor John Bel Edwards is term limited and could run against Kennedy (a fair bit of speculation), so that could be an interesting race.
That leaves Johnson's, Rubio's, Portman's, Toomey's, and Burr's seats. I think Rubio should win (Florida Republicans have done well in recent years), but if maybe Ivanka Trump or Matt Gaetz (Trump favorites) runs, Rubio may have a tough time getting out of the primaries. Val Demings is maybe the only Democrat that could win here, but if it's Gaetz or Ivanka, Dems might have a better shot. Johnson's seat will be tougher to defend, but who steps up in the Democrat primary is an interesting question.
Portman's seat will probably stay in Republican hands (it's hard to find a Democrat like Sherrod Brown who would be popular in Ohio) but if it's Jim Jordan or some other Trump favorite, the seat could be competitive. If a more center-right politician that's somewhat like Portman runs, GOPers should feel confident.
Toomey's seat will be pretty hard for Republicans to defend. Given the state has gone a bit to the left since 2016, that momentum might be tough for GOP personnel to hold. Conor Lamb, Joe Sestak, Joe Torsella could have a go against the GOP, where they might have a harder time coming up with a solid candidate.
Burr's seat will be interesting. The GOP have a slate of people who could run (Lara Trump, Mark Walker, Tim Moore, Pat McCrory, Dan Forest, or Ted Budd could all run), and the Democrats have a solid slate as well (Jeff Jackson, Erica Smith, Roy Cooper (term limited in 2024, so I think he would probably finish that out and then challenge Tillis in '26), Josh Stein, Anthony Foxx). The GOP if they could get someone somewhat center-right like Burr is should win IMO, but the list of GOP contenders are mostly all Trump-level right and could be exposed by someone like Jeff Jackson. Stein, Foxx and Smith may have a bit harder go of it.
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