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Old 01-11-2021, 01:54 PM
 
Location: Atlanta metro (Cobb County)
3,083 posts, read 2,146,446 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by g555 View Post
Perhaps for these two years as a Senator, he will be influential, but he has also stated that he might want to run for governor in his state in 2022. But I agree, he won't be switching to become a Republican Senator right now.
West Virginia elects governors in presidential election years, so the next race isn't until 2024.
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Old 01-11-2021, 04:03 PM
 
5,230 posts, read 6,149,903 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Variable View Post
Not so soon. The Republican controlled Georgia elections board and legislature is pushing to make huge changes to Mail-in Voting in Georgia, since they realize Democrats use mail-in voting at a higher rate than Republicans. Their goal is to reduce Dem turnout.

Changes proposed in Georgia for 2021 and forward:

1) Move from no excuse mail-in voting to mandating an excuse.
2) Move from signature verification for mail-in votes to mandating a copy of drivers license (or comparable) to be mailed in with the mail-in vote. This means voters need access to a copy machine in order to cast their mail-in vote.
The problem for Rs is that the state is shifting rapidly based on younger voters being more D leaning than older ones and migration to the state which tends to be young college grads, mid career job transfers from northern & western states, and minorities. They've also lost ground in the suburbs the last three election cycles. So they might knock of one or two points but Ds are basically gaining a point per year. This won't make it a blue state for atleast another 8 years but we're unlikely to see an R pull more than a two point lead out of elections moving forward.
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Old 01-11-2021, 04:15 PM
 
11,989 posts, read 5,237,374 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Variable View Post
Not so soon. The Republican controlled Georgia elections board and legislature is pushing to make huge changes to Mail-in Voting in Georgia, since they realize Democrats use mail-in voting at a higher rate than Republicans. Their goal is to reduce Dem turnout.

Changes proposed in Georgia for 2021 and forward:

1) Move from no excuse mail-in voting to mandating an excuse.
2) Move from signature verification for mail-in votes to mandating a copy of drivers license (or comparable) to be mailed in with the mail-in vote. This means voters need access to a copy machine in order to cast their mail-in vote.
Those tactics may slow down the momentum but they won’t turn the tide. The more overt the R attempts to stifle voter turnout, the more likely that long term you’re ensuring a solid blue state. Georgia is changing by the day. To keep control Republicans eventually will have to appeal to that change, rather than just try to stifle it.
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Old 01-12-2021, 09:29 AM
 
5,230 posts, read 6,149,903 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bureaucat View Post
Those tactics may slow down the momentum but they won’t turn the tide. The more overt the R attempts to stifle voter turnout, the more likely that long term you’re ensuring a solid blue state. Georgia is changing by the day. To keep control Republicans eventually will have to appeal to that change, rather than just try to stifle it.
I still think they have two presidential cycles where they should be in play (possibly favored in 2024) but after that I think its Co/Va territory. The big problem is if Trump going all in with his specific base turned of suburban voter temporarily or long term. The fact that the have a Q Anon fanatic and another couple of hard core Rs in their congressional delegation might also become a problem for the state party.
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Old 01-12-2021, 10:40 AM
 
5,938 posts, read 4,670,389 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Variable View Post
Not so soon. The Republican controlled Georgia elections board and legislature is pushing to make huge changes to Mail-in Voting in Georgia, since they realize Democrats use mail-in voting at a higher rate than Republicans. Their goal is to reduce Dem turnout.

Changes proposed in Georgia for 2021 and forward:

1) Move from no excuse mail-in voting to mandating an excuse.
2) Move from signature verification for mail-in votes to mandating a copy of drivers license (or comparable) to be mailed in with the mail-in vote. This means voters need access to a copy machine in order to cast their mail-in vote.
Republicans win in some states because of voter suppression (or to put it nicely, reducing Democrat turnout).

In 2022 when Warnock has to run again to win the seat during the proper cycle (this was a special election), we might see a very different result.

However, considering that Abrams almost won Governor without no excuse mail-in balloting, I suppose it is possible. But I think mail-in ballots put Democrats over the top in 2020. And you better believe other GA statewide officials are worried that they'll be shown the door next time if they don't suppress the vote.

In America, more turnout should be better. More Americans voting should be better. Sadly, Republicans don't see it that way. And I fully expect states like Georgia to put an end to mail-in balloting in today's form and to retake that Senate seat in 2022.

Looking forward (and this is outside the scope of this topic sort of) - here's what we have in 2022 for Senate races:

AZ Kelly(D)
FL Rubio(R)
GA Warnock(D)
NV Cortez(D)
NC Burr - retiring (R)
PA Toomey - retiring (R)
WI Johnson (R)

Republicans need one pickup while defending FL, NC, PA, WI. Two of those seats will have no incumbent running. But it is feasible to see Republicans take back the Senate just as much as Democrats could build on their majority.

In either case, if GA does change laws to make it harder for Democrats to win, they'd need a pickup to keep a majority. A lot might hinge on Warnock in 2022.
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Old 01-12-2021, 10:54 AM
 
Location: Providence, RI
12,595 posts, read 21,740,051 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dspguy View Post
In America, more turnout should be better. More Americans voting should be better. Sadly, Republicans don't see it that way. And I fully expect states like Georgia to put an end to mail-in balloting in today's form and to retake that Senate seat in 2022.
I think this has been sort of lost in all of this "The election was STOLEN!" nonsense. Really, the system we have in place is stacked in favor of Republicans. Gerrymandering favors Republicans more than Democrats, and the Electoral College significantly favors Republicans. Even this year, the higher than normal turnout is tossed out as evidence as fraud (in fairness, there's not much "evidence" to choose from). I'm hopeful that we'll have a fairer system in the future, but I don't see that as likely with the country diversifying.
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Old 01-12-2021, 12:44 PM
 
1,809 posts, read 656,756 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jas75 View Post
West Virginia elects governors in presidential election years, so the next race isn't until 2024.
You're right. So he will be staying put until 2024 in the Senate. He will stay as a Democrat, but working greatly with Murkowski and center right Republicans like Romney in the Senate.

Speculation here, but while 2024 is far out, he may even be viable for running mate if the 2024 GOP candidate (let's say Tim Scott, Mitt Romney or Ben Sasse) considered him to pull in some center Left moderates that typically vote Democrat. At that point, he'd break his loyalty to the Democratic Party going on a Republican led ticket, even though he'd still be registered as a Democrat.

Kamala Harris will be pressured by progressives to select an even more Left running mate than she is, that [some GOP candidate rejecting Trump]/Manchin ticket would more centered right, while Harris/[some left candidate] far left.

The center Left, centrist independent, or just a regular swing voter, that voted Biden might be swayed to vote for the R ticket in 2024.
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Old 01-12-2021, 01:19 PM
 
5,230 posts, read 6,149,903 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dspguy View Post
In either case, if GA does change laws to make it harder for Democrats to win, they'd need a pickup to keep a majority. A lot might hinge on Warnock in 2022.
The trick for Republicans is if they can't hit 50 in Georgia they will be stuck in runoffs. This give Dems a chance to regroup, activate different voters as they did from Nov-Jan. This always benefitted Rs but this time the D campaigns threw Biden's plan in the air and doubled down on voter registration and in person contacts as the Rs had done all year. Because it is a growing state they can literally pick up tens of thousands of young, D leaning voters simply based on the two month lag. In the last couple of years, Kemp appears to be the only statewide candidate to avoid a runnoff and that was by the slimmest of margins. That 5o% + 1 vote threshold is only going to be more difficult for Rs moving forward.

In terms of the other states, I think Pa is the most likely D pickup. The Lt Governor is considering the race and he looks like a teamster and was mayor of a blue collar town so he will not be stuck running against an image of a Philly effete. Az and Ga likely come down to whether Rs put up sane, moderate candidates or go full Tea Party/MAGA. Ward/McSally/Biggs/etc will not get the job done- Ducey might if he is willing to risk the primary. In Wisconsin, Dems need a blue collar friendly candidate who can activate Milwaukee voters in particular. In NC, Dems would be best served by a business person as opposed to a pol.
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Old 01-12-2021, 01:42 PM
 
Location: Atlanta metro (Cobb County)
3,083 posts, read 2,146,446 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mrpeatie View Post
The trick for Republicans is if they can't hit 50 in Georgia they will be stuck in runoffs. This give Dems a chance to regroup, activate different voters as they did from Nov-Jan. This always benefitted Rs but this time the D campaigns threw Biden's plan in the air and doubled down on voter registration and in person contacts as the Rs had done all year. Because it is a growing state they can literally pick up tens of thousands of young, D leaning voters simply based on the two month lag. In the last couple of years, Kemp appears to be the only statewide candidate to avoid a runnoff and that was by the slimmest of margins. That 5o% + 1 vote threshold is only going to be more difficult for Rs moving forward.
I would think the Republican legislature and governor could enact legislation to eliminate the runoffs, if they are convinced that system now favors Democrats. I don't think that is necessarily true, as Trump won't be such a visible presence in future elections stepping all over other Republicans and stifling their message.
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Old 01-13-2021, 08:02 AM
 
5,230 posts, read 6,149,903 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jas75 View Post
I would think the Republican legislature and governor could enact legislation to eliminate the runoffs, if they are convinced that system now favors Democrats. I don't think that is necessarily true, as Trump won't be such a visible presence in future elections stepping all over other Republicans and stifling their message.
There problem at the moment is they cannot gauge where the true partisan line stands because the state has grown/evolved so quickly. In 2018 Kemp went 50.2-48.8. In 2020 it went 49.47 Biden to 49.24 Trump. Perdue only missed the 50% mark by something like .3% before the runoff saw him slip about .3 while Ossoff improved over 2.5 points. So the Rs would risk getting away from it when its traditionally served them well at the exact moment Democrats look like 48 is their new floor.

The big problem is that '18 was a D wave and Abrams an electrifying candidate and 2020 revolved largely on Trump who had huge rural numbers and abysmal urbun ones while losing too much ground in suburbs. Perdue outperformed Trump. But moving forward, is it Dem voters who will be less engaged or are Rs at risk of losing a 2-3 point bounce from voters loyal to Trump as opposed to all Republicans?
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