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Old 01-12-2021, 10:08 AM
 
Location: Providence, RI
12,631 posts, read 21,784,537 times
Reputation: 14063

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Quote:
Originally Posted by mrpeatie View Post
I think this election was baked in 2-3 years ago. I am coming to realize that Covid probably helped Trump. It gave his supporters a line in the sand and huge numbers of small business owners/contract workers/people who were not declared essential went for him in droves because of shut downs. I'm not sure those folks would be activated otherwise. It also helped him because Ds scaled back campaigns while Rs went balls to the wall. I think the rioting that followed some of the social unrest helped Trump. I think he fanned those flames because he knew the predictable outcome and how that helped his cause. Without those two simultaneous crisis, I think Biden could have eked out another two points.
I think COVID may have shifted some people into Trump's camp for the reasons you're outlining (particularly business owners and employees of impacted businesses), but I would argue that it was a two-way shift. There were plenty of people who were leaning Trump but shift as this thing dragged on and he was in all out denial.

But the reason I think COVID worked against Trump in the end is because it ruined what was a fairly strong and growing economy. A crisis by itself doesn't necessarily hurt a President. It can even help, especially if they can demonstrate some leadership qualities and send a strong message of unity. That's really not in Trump's playbook and a high death toll combined a tanking economy with his finger pointing and lashing out almost certainly cost him votes.
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Old 01-12-2021, 10:28 AM
 
5,938 posts, read 4,674,690 times
Reputation: 4630
Quote:
Originally Posted by lrfox View Post
I think COVID may have shifted some people into Trump's camp for the reasons you're outlining (particularly business owners and employees of impacted businesses), but I would argue that it was a two-way shift. There were plenty of people who were leaning Trump but shift as this thing dragged on and he was in all out denial.

But the reason I think COVID worked against Trump in the end is because it ruined what was a fairly strong and growing economy. A crisis by itself doesn't necessarily hurt a President. It can even help, especially if they can demonstrate some leadership qualities and send a strong message of unity. That's really not in Trump's playbook and a high death toll combined a tanking economy with his finger pointing and lashing out almost certainly cost him votes.
You are right - I think it worked both ways. Every American was affected by COVID in some way. And because it affected everyone, I think it resulted in everyone wanting a say in the election which is what, in part, drove up turn-out.

Prior to the election, Trump threw in the towel on COVID. I think that resonated with a lot of Americans. We want life to be normal, but recognize we can't just go back to normalcy just yet. But it wasn't like Trump was actively taking worthwhile steps to get us there.

Operation Warp Speed was simply a name attached to an effort that had already started. Companies were going to work on vaccines with or without government involvement. OWS dropped the ball on vaccine distribution. We are behind schedule in both distributing and administering the vaccine. And Trump turned down Pfizer's offer of a shipment of another 30M vaccines - instead they are going to Europe. Did he turn those down because Pfizer wasn't really part of OWS and he wanted Moderna to lead the charge? I don't know.

But most of America wants a vaccine and doesn't really care much if Pfizer or Moderna provided it. Turning that down was a mistake and might make us lose another summer.
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Old 01-12-2021, 10:40 AM
bu2
 
23,874 posts, read 14,669,162 times
Reputation: 12658
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bitey View Post
By having a filter on his mouth and Twitter fingers instead of blurting out every single internal dialog running through his head. That and a more focused approach dealing with a hostile opposition is really all it would have taken.
Shouldn't we be talking about things that were possible?
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Old 01-12-2021, 10:42 AM
 
18,986 posts, read 9,000,660 times
Reputation: 14688
Quote:
Originally Posted by ChicagoMeO View Post
You are right about tone. Definitely. Trump voters loved his tone, i.e. the bravado etc. sometimes even he made us laugh. however, the same words - others perceived it as hostile. Its all in one's perception. Haters of Trump perceived the exact same thing in a negative way. its all tone and how one perceives it based on their love or dislike of him. Weird but true.
No, Chicago, you can't just say it was a matter of perception. He actually went out of his way to downplay a very big crisis that was affecting every American in every walk of life. There was no mere "perception" of his mismanagement, through his words and actions. The results speak for themselves.

Acknowledge that Trump's tone was exactly what he meant it to be and give him the blame accordingly and without qualifiers. That would be honest.
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Old 01-12-2021, 10:45 AM
bu2
 
23,874 posts, read 14,669,162 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dspguy View Post
I like some of the OP's points, but $2000 stimulus and forgiving student loan debt would have turned Trump's base off.

Remember, you don't just win reelection by your base. Biden received something like 95% of all Democrats and Trump received votes from 94% of all Republicans.

Independents decide the election.

Trump double, triple, quadrupled down on COVID being a non-issue. And that cost him independents. I think if there is one single thing we can point to as to why Trump lost - it would be this issue. He didn't take it seriously - he lied to America about the severity of it. His base didn't seem to want to take actions to mitigate it, so maybe he was forced down this path in fear of losing his base.

Here's where Trump's leadership has got us:

25% of the world's cases in a country with just 4% of the world's population
19% of the world's deaths in a country with just 4% of the world's population
37% of the world's active cases in a country just 4% of the world's population
25% of the world's recent deaths in a country with just 4% of the world's population

Side note: this also means it is clearly getting WORSE rather than better: 19% overall deaths, but 25% recent deaths. 25% world's cases but 37% recent cases.

Trump threw in the towel a long time ago. But instead of just stepping back and letting the adults in the room handle it, he actively worked to undermine them by continually misinforming America about the severity of it. That's even worse than doing nothing.

Trump had a lot of faults and many reasons to not be re-elected. But his mismanagement of COVID would be greater than any other individual issue.
Trump did a good job on Covid. Tens of thousands more would have been dead if we listened to the Democrats.

What he could have done on Covid was:
1) Let Pence do more of the talking. Trump's impulsiveness muddied the message.
2) Not do events like the Comey party that got dozens of staff sick.
3) Wear a mask a little more often to keep those freaking out about the virus happy. He said all the right things. He just didn't lead by example.

If there is one thing that may have cost him the election, it was that Comey party. It was really bad judgement and probably tipped enough undecideds so that the Democrats had a relatively easy time manufacturing enough votes to steal GA, AZ, and WI.
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Old 01-12-2021, 10:48 AM
bu2
 
23,874 posts, read 14,669,162 times
Reputation: 12658
Quote:
Originally Posted by mrpeatie View Post
I think this election was baked in 2-3 years ago. I am coming to realize that Covid probably helped Trump. It gave his supporters a line in the sand and huge numbers of small business owners/contract workers/people who were not declared essential went for him in droves because of shut downs. I'm not sure those folks would be activated otherwise. It also helped him because Ds scaled back campaigns while Rs went balls to the wall. I think the rioting that followed some of the social unrest helped Trump. I think he fanned those flames because he knew the predictable outcome and how that helped his cause. Without those two simultaneous crisis, I think Biden could have eked out another two points.
I don't agree, but that's an interesting viewpoint.

Turnout was really high on both sides.
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Old 01-12-2021, 01:23 PM
 
9,886 posts, read 9,500,781 times
Reputation: 10071
Quote:
Originally Posted by JAMS14 View Post
No, Chicago, you can't just say it was a matter of perception. He actually went out of his way to downplay a very big crisis that was affecting every American in every walk of life. There was no mere "perception" of his mismanagement, through his words and actions. The results speak for themselves.

Acknowledge that Trump's tone was exactly what he meant it to be and give him the blame accordingly and without qualifiers. That would be honest.
Hi let me clarify - Trump voters and Trump haters both heard the same thing. The way each person heard it, thats what I meant. A Trump voter will love what Trump says, and the Trump hater hates what he says, so its each person's perception, based on their love or hate for him. The same exact thing was heard and is perceived differently by depending on who is hearing it.
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Old 01-12-2021, 01:32 PM
 
Location: Not too far East of the Everglades
10,951 posts, read 3,632,067 times
Reputation: 2844
How Trump Could Have Won Re-Election?

By BEING a Human Being the Day he started as a President, but Day 2 was already full of lies, that NEVER ended, Twits that NEVER STOPPED, Total disdain ( the feeling that someone or something is unworthy of one's consideration or respect; contempt.) for the Rest Of The World and 2020 was the Nail in The Coffin...Covid-19 buried his selffish attitude for good.

In top of ALL THAT, the Cherry on the Cake, January 6th, he's one lucky BASTARD if he doesnt get thrown to the Lions be fore the 20th of January.

He's a One Term President, that should not have lasted a SINGLE year in Power.

There was no way IN HELL of reelection, he KNEW THAT, and The Votings Cheating Scandals took root on his Forces because a year before the started to get his trops in GEAR, instead of the UNIFIED COUNTRY waiting for a SIGNAL, then TRUMPISM went overboard, And we All Know the Rest of The Story.

Last edited by Huasho; 01-12-2021 at 01:52 PM..
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Old 01-12-2021, 03:29 PM
 
5,716 posts, read 2,167,131 times
Reputation: 3862
No Covid and Trump wins easily.
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Old 01-12-2021, 04:33 PM
 
3,408 posts, read 1,878,124 times
Reputation: 3542
Quote:
Originally Posted by LM117 View Post
By taking Covid seriously from the very beginning and not f'ing up the response. That was all he had to do to get a second term and he blew it.
The BIGGEST reason he lost the election was that he wouldn't keep his mouth shut! I'm a Republican and give him credit for doing many great things. He very wrongly believed that doing a great job would get him reelected, despite being a JERK!. I voted for him despite hating his personality! He lost because he couldn't keep his mouth shut! Plain & simple!
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