When a VP is primaried and loses?

[banjomike]

Originally Posted by g555

Thanks for the correction to the Bush year, and the response with the history.

I kind of wonder if Kamala Harris will be successfully primaried against in 2024 where another candidate wins more contests, when she will be a sitting VP thus wanted to see if anything similar has happened in the past.

It really depends on the person. Former VPs who ran for the Presidency later have won the nomination about half of the time.

Not all of them try, and not all of them win the nomination even if they ran. Being the Vice President isn't always an advantage.

Humprey, Johnson's VP, was thought to be better Presidential material than Johnson when both were Senators, but after serving under an increasingly unpopular President, then winning the nomination as an establishment candidate, then going through riots outside the convention hall for 3 days sank Humprey's chances like a rock.

He was too familiar with the voters. Nixon had been out of politics for 4 years, returned untarnished, and won.

The sins of the President tend to rub off on his VP fairly often.
Denying his VP the White House could be the voter's way of punishing an outgoing President. I think that happened to Hubert Humphrey, who was Lyndon Johnson's VP. When both were Senators, Humphrey was more popular, but he lost it as Johnson's popularity tanked as the war dragged on.

But there are lots of reasons why someone loses or wins.
Some VPs aren't ever well liked.
Quite often after 8 years, the voters simply want a change at the top.
Once in a while, we end up with 2 very popular and likable candidates that are fairly equal choices, and one edges out the other.
Sometimes neither candidate is well liked.

[atxcio]

Originally Posted by SkyDog77

Republican party bosses most certainly do not pick the candidates. If they did, Donald Trump would never have won the nomination.

I'll bet they have already fixed that.

[banjomike]

Dan Quayle was passed over right away when he made a brief run in the primaries.

[dsjj251]

Originally Posted by 2x3x29x41

2016 - Biden

Nixon, Humphrey, Bush and Gore all sought the nomination and all won it handily (for those wondering about 1968, Humphrey had a large lead in delegates when RFK was assassinated).

His lead was 170. Thats not really all that much. Especially considering the next primary after California was New York, which at the time was the largest state, and Humphrey was polling 3rd

[Vatnos]

Originally Posted by banjomike

It really depends on the person. Former VPs who ran for the Presidency later have won the nomination about half of the time.

Not all of them try, and not all of them win the nomination even if they ran. Being the Vice President isn't always an advantage.

Humprey, Johnson's VP, was thought to be better Presidential material than Johnson when both were Senators, but after serving under an increasingly unpopular President, then winning the nomination as an establishment candidate, then going through riots outside the convention hall for 3 days sank Humprey's chances like a rock.

He was too familiar with the voters. Nixon had been out of politics for 4 years, returned untarnished, and won.

The sins of the President tend to rub off on his VP fairly often.
Denying his VP the White House could be the voter's way of punishing an outgoing President. I think that happened to Hubert Humphrey, who was Lyndon Johnson's VP. When both were Senators, Humphrey was more popular, but he lost it as Johnson's popularity tanked as the war dragged on.

But there are lots of reasons why someone loses or wins.
Some VPs aren't ever well liked.
Quite often after 8 years, the voters simply want a change at the top.
Once in a while, we end up with 2 very popular and likable candidates that are fairly equal choices, and one edges out the other.
Sometimes neither candidate is well liked.

Johnson is the only sitting president (and former VP) to lose a primary challenge, though it is really RFK who deserves credit. Humphrey was a tertiary candidate in the race until RFK's assassination.


Still, the primary challenges against Ford, Carter, and Bush Sr did major damage and may have set them up to lose the general ultimately.


If the question is whether there can be a successful primary of Harris in 2024, probably not. She's not a political talent, for sure. She's not well liked by the left, particularly the BLM crowd that have issues with nominating a former prosecutor. However, the left flank of the party is too weak to mount a challenge, barring something unexpected. Bernie's too old, Warren nuked her standing with the left by spoiling the vote and failing to endorse him when she dropped. Williamson lacks the national profile. The squad are all too young. Who else is there? We know anyone that runs will be smeared as racist and sexist by the corporate dems. It's an uphill battle.