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While educational attainment, urban/rural, and race are concrete markers, the level of religious intensity is harder to gauge. The following ranking was based on a study by Pew Research.
States from least to most religious (Pew Poll)
1. New Hampshire
2. Massachusetts
3. Vermont
4. Maine
5. Connecticut
6. Wisconsin
7. Washington
8. Alaska
9. New York
10. Hawaii
11. Colorado
12. Oregon
13. Montana
14. Rhode Island
15. Nevada
16. Minnesota
17. California
18. Illinois
19. Idaho
20. Delaware
21. Pennsylvania
22. North Dakota
23. Michigan
24. DC
25. Arizona
26. Wyoming
27. Nebraska
28. Maryland
29. Indiana
30. Florida
31. New Jersey
32. Kansas
33. Iowa
34. New Mexico
35. Ohio
36. South Dakota
37. Missouri
38. Virginia
39. Kentucky
40. Utah
41. Texas
42. North Carolina
43. Oklahoma
44. Georgia
45. West Virginia
46. South Carolina
47. Arkansas
48. Louisiana
49. Tennessee
50. Mississippi
51. Alabama
1. Urban/Rural
2. College/Non-College
3. White/Minority
4. More Religious/Less Religious
At least in 2020:
1 - Urban/Rural are 60/40 splits, suburbs are 50/50 though
2 - College/not is only 55/45 (because POC)
3 - White/Black/Latino/Asian/etc are 40/60, 90/10, 65/35, 60/40, 55/45. So roughly White/POC is 40/60 vs 70/30
4 - White Evangelical/other are 70/30! Protestants are 60/40, Catholics are 50/50, non are 65/35, "other" are 70/30
Rankings for this year only: 4, 3, 1, 2
Maybe Maine and VT are so odd because there are almost no Evangelicals?
Maybe it's carry over from the rest of NE and NY?
Maybe it's just part of being Yankees?
If you average all 4 factors equally and rank the states, this is how they sort out. Not sure if it’s statistically relevant but it’s fun to play around with.
Minority Population/Educational Attainment/Lack of Religiosity/Urban vs. Rural Combined and Ranked (all factors equally weighted)
1. DC
2. Hawaii
3. Massachusetts
4. California
5. New York
6. Connecticut
7. Colorado
8. Maryland
9. New Jersey
10. Illinois
11. Washington
12. Rhode Island
13. Nevada
14. Delaware
15. Arizona
16. Florida
17. Oregon
18. Virginia
19. Alaska
20. Texas
21. Minnesota
22. New Hampshire
23. New Mexico
24. Georgia
25. Wisconsin
26. Kansas
27. Vermont
28. Ohio
29. Maine
30. Michigan
31. Pennsylvania
32. North Carolina
33. Nebraska
34. Utah
35. Montana
36. Idaho
37. North Dakota
38. Louisiana
39. Missouri
40. Indiana
41. Oklahoma
42. Wyoming
43. Tennessee
44. Iowa
45. South Carolina
46. South Dakota
47. Mississippi
48. Alabama
49. Arkansas
50. Kentucky
51. West Virginia
At least in 2020:
1 - Urban/Rural are 60/40 splits, suburbs are 50/50 though
2 - College/not is only 55/45 (because POC)
3 - White/Black/Latino/Asian/etc are 40/60, 90/10, 65/35, 60/40, 55/45. So roughly White/POC is 40/60 vs 70/30
4 - White Evangelical/other are 70/30! Protestants are 60/40, Catholics are 50/50, non are 65/35, "other" are 70/30
Rankings for this year only: 4, 3, 1, 2
Maybe Maine and VT are so odd because there are almost no Evangelicals?
Maybe it's carry over from the rest of NE and NY?
Maybe it's just part of being Yankees?
I think the lack of Evangelicals is a factor.
It also could be higher % of non-religious (unchurched).
If you average all 4 factors equally and rank the states, this is how they sort out. Not sure if it’s statistically relevant but it’s fun to play around with.
Minority Population/Educational Attainment/Lack of Religiosity/Urban vs. Rural Combined and Ranked (all factors equally weighted)
1. DC
2. Hawaii
3. Massachusetts
4. California
5. New York
6. Connecticut
7. Colorado
8. Maryland
9. New Jersey
10. Illinois
11. Washington
12. Rhode Island
13. Nevada
14. Delaware
15. Arizona
16. Florida
17. Oregon
18. Virginia
19. Alaska
20. Texas
21. Minnesota
22. New Hampshire
23. New Mexico
24. Georgia
25. Wisconsin
26. Kansas
27. Vermont
28. Ohio
29. Maine
30. Michigan
31. Pennsylvania
32. North Carolina
33. Nebraska
34. Utah
35. Montana
36. Idaho
37. North Dakota
38. Louisiana
39. Missouri
40. Indiana
41. Oklahoma
42. Wyoming
43. Tennessee
44. Iowa
45. South Carolina
46. South Dakota
47. Mississippi
48. Alabama
49. Arkansas
50. Kentucky
51. West Virginia
That is really impressive how predictive that is. Thanks for putting this together. Age could probably fix outliers like Florida, and Male/Female ratio could fix outliers like Alaska.
I bet if you really honed down the details - like education and religiosity only affecting whites and hispanics, and the exact percentages for states rather than a crude ranking, you could potentially generate a more predictive map than polls.
There are at least 4 dividing lines between the two parties in no particular order.
1. Urban/Rural
2. College/Non-College
3. White/Minority
4. More Religious/Less Religious
How states measure up along those lines roughly mirror their political inclinations.
2. White college grads still lean slightly Republican. Minority grads are of course, strongly Democrat.
People without HS diplomas are very strongly Democrat. People with HS diplomas but no college diploma are strongly Republican. (at least in the last election).
Last edited by Bureaucat; 01-28-2021 at 12:28 PM..
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