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This doesn't surprise me. Biden's margin of victory in the PV was higher than Hillary. He also got 80 million votes +. I give Democrats a lot of credit for getting the margins they got in Georgia, but it just illustrates how close some of these races got. If I'm a Democrat, I would be cautious. Yes they are in power and yes they have some momentum, but if Republicans can take back at least one of the House or Senate in 2022 (remember mid-terms usually favor the party that isn't in power) they could be primed. Trump turned off moderates with his behavior and mishandled the pandemic. Those attacking points for the Dems won't be around in 2024 unless he's the candidate (which I feel is unlikely). I have the feeling that unless the GOP splits (which is very possible) that they could be able to hold it together and make a run at it. Arizona went by .3, Georgia by .2, and Wisconsin by .6 - those are all margins that the GOP could get back in 2024.
This doesn't surprise me. Biden's margin of victory in the PV was higher than Hillary. He also got 80 million votes +. I give Democrats a lot of credit for getting the margins they got in Georgia, but it just illustrates how close some of these races got. If I'm a Democrat, I would be cautious. Yes they are in power and yes they have some momentum, but if Republicans can take back at least one of the House or Senate in 2022 (remember mid-terms usually favor the party that isn't in power) they could be primed. Trump turned off moderates with his behavior and mishandled the pandemic. Those attacking points for the Dems won't be around in 2024 unless he's the candidate (which I feel is unlikely). I have the feeling that unless the GOP splits (which is very possible) that they could be able to hold it together and make a run at it. Arizona went by .3, Georgia by .2, and Wisconsin by .6 - those are all margins that the GOP could get back in 2024.
True but so far the Republicans seem intent on keeping Trump and people like Greene in the front burner if that is still the case in 2022, I think it will hurt them overall.
2024 still an enigma since we can’t say who both parties will run, I don’t see Biden running in 2024 and I don’t see Trump doing it either. But if the next four years become a Republican Party lead by Trump and the crazies, plus the R’s choose a Trumper as a nominee, I think the Dems could win again unless they also choose a far left representative
I think 2024 will be very interesting. No other R has pulled voters off the sidelines as well as Trump has. He might not have held the middle and lost some Rs from the edges but brought his own people to the polls. The question is if a standard issue R can do the same. Except for Florida, the states where Trump gained seem to reflect Rs sitting on their hands or going third party in 2016 more than true political trends.
In 2020- Dems also left a lot of votes on the table by not doing as much registration and not having in person campaigning. The question is if those activities gain them enough votes to lose the one time anti-Trump voters who might return R in 2024.
I think Wisconsin is the D state most at risk even though Ga and Arizona were closer. It is trending older, whiter, less educated, and more rural than the nation as a whole. Ga, Arizona, and NC are all getting more urban/suburban and seeing more educated (and diverse) voters flocking to their major metros. Pa's status will be decided by attrition while Nevada might move more R based on in-migration. I think Florida is trending more R while Texas is inching towards purple.
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Originally Posted by mrpeatie
I think 2024 will be very interesting. No other R has pulled voters off the sidelines as well as Trump has. He might not have held the middle and lost some Rs from the edges but brought his own people to the polls. The question is if a standard issue R can do the same. Except for Florida, the states where Trump gained seem to reflect Rs sitting on their hands or going third party in 2016 more than true political trends.
In 2020- Dems also left a lot of votes on the table by not doing as much registration and not having in person campaigning. The question is if those activities gain them enough votes to lose the one time anti-Trump voters who might return R in 2024.
I think Wisconsin is the D state most at risk even though Ga and Arizona were closer. It is trending older, whiter, less educated, and more rural than the nation as a whole. Ga, Arizona, and NC are all getting more urban/suburban and seeing more educated (and diverse) voters flocking to their major metros. Pa's status will be decided by attrition while Nevada might move more R based on in-migration. I think Florida is trending more R while Texas is inching towards purple.
Wisconsin is a State where D's have a higher ceiling than the R's do. A GOP win there is simply Democrats staying home. Its one of the few States where Biden did not top Barack Obama's 2008 number.
Nevada pretty much has held steady for 3 straight elections. If Anything, its steady D+1, turnout mattering the most. Dems on a State level are strong there, Flipped the US senate seat, Held on to the other, Flipped 2 US senate seats, Flipped all but one State wide Office, flipped the state senate, and the State House.
Florida shifting to Trump by 2 point and Dems losing 2 House Seats by 4 point isnt all that alarming considering they used to lose those 2 seats by 10+.
Wisconsin is a State where D's have a higher ceiling than the R's do. A GOP win there is simply Democrats staying home. Its one of the few States where Biden did not top Barack Obama's 2008 number.
Nevada pretty much has held steady for 3 straight elections. If Anything, its steady D+1, turnout mattering the most. Dems on a State level are strong there, Flipped the US senate seat, Held on to the other, Flipped 2 US senate seats, Flipped all but one State wide Office, flipped the state senate, and the State House.
Florida shifting to Trump by 2 point and Dems losing 2 House Seats by 4 point isnt all that alarming considering they used to lose those 2 seats by 10+.
Florida is one state that actually did better in 2020 with Trump in the ballot and 5hat was by running a good campaign that early on tied Biden to communism which drew well in South Florida where Biden needed to win big and had a poor result compared to 2016.
The two house seats that the R’s won are actually Dem leading but the R’s ran candidates that more reflected the districts than the Dems. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Dems flip both seats in 2022 if they choose good candidates wi5hout Trump in the ballot
I think Wisconsin is the D state most at risk even though Ga and Arizona were closer. It is trending older, whiter, less educated, and more rural than the nation as a whole.
Not sure I agree entirely with your analysis.
Madison is having a tech-driven boom. Dane County is up ~12% in the decade while the state is up <2.5%. ~43% of the net population growth in the entire state in the past decade is Dane County.
Dane County also just voted....76% Dem, and the Dem vote share is on a long-term upward trend in the county, arguably dating back at least 30 years.
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Rural populations in WI look to be outright declining, with growth in the bigger suburbs being what's keeping the state afloat/growing slowly in total.
It looks to me that (like much of the country), the Wisconsin of the future appears to be one where rural populations are in sharp decline and suburbs/metro areas are the driver of population growth.
I suppose I could see GA + AZ making those transitions even faster (and likely becoming more Dem-leaning), but I'm not sure that WI is necessarily headed for a rightward shift.
Regarding Wisconsin, the state has several small metro areas that occupy a middle ground between the increasingly Democratic trending greater Madison and Milwaukee, and the heavily Republican rural areas. There is some economic development and slow but steady growth around Green Bay, Appleton and Oshkosh especially, which is currently a slightly Republican leaning part of the state.
Unlike in neighboring Illinois or Minnesota, Democrats can't rely exclusively on the largest metros to carry Wisconsin, since they are not a sufficiently large part of the state, so making more inroads in these smaller urban centers should be a priority. The state hasn't moved far right at this point like Missouri, Iowa, Indiana or Ohio but it is probably more susceptible to such a trend than anywhere else Biden carried in 2020.
Unlike in neighboring Illinois or Minnesota, Democrats can't rely exclusively on the largest metros to carry Wisconsin, since they are not a sufficiently large part of the state, so making more inroads in these smaller urban centers should be a priority. The state hasn't moved far right at this point like Missouri, Iowa, Indiana or Ohio but it is probably more susceptible to such a trend than anywhere else Biden carried in 2020.
I think this is a really good point. Trump actually did better in the Milwaukee and other cities but Biden won by increasing his share in the suburbs. Scott Walker barely lost in 2018. I do not trust that those vote swings are permanent or simply reflect two Rs who were not temperamentally suited to a particular strain of upper middle class suburban voters.
I also think people so readily associate Mn and Wi that they overlook just how much the Twin Cities metro is starting to dominate the state in terms of population.
True but so far the Republicans seem intent on keeping Trump and people like Greene in the front burner if that is still the case in 2022, I think it will hurt them overall.
2024 still an enigma since we can’t say who both parties will run, I don’t see Biden running in 2024 and I don’t see Trump doing it either. But if the next four years become a Republican Party lead by Trump and the crazies, plus the R’s choose a Trumper as a nominee, I think the Dems could win again unless they also choose a far left representative
Democrats are the ones talking about Greene. Republicans aren't. But Democrats talk about AOC and AOC talks about AOC.
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