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Hispanics, at least in the South, tend to be very patriotic. They join the armed forces in disproportionate numbers. Article wonders whether the Democrats identity politics is pushing them to the Republicans.
"...Latinos in South Florida and the Rio Grande Valley in southern Texas showed similar swings toward Trump, who gained 23 percentage points in Miami-Dade County and flipped Zapata County, Texas, for the first time since the 19th century....
The culture wars certainly loom large. Perez argues that Democrats face a challenge since they are "so often embarrassed by America's more 'uncouth' elements," while there is a "jovial Latino Americanism" evident in campaign rallies that combine mostly spoken Spanish with "all-American, good-times Nascar vibes." Latinos, he adds, "see themselves not as Latinx, or even Latinos, but as Americans." If he's right, then betting the house on identity politics will prove costly...."
The attached article from Forbes tracks the percentage that Republican nominees have received since 1932 for blacks and 1976 for Hispanics. While there may have been significant movement in isolated areas, the national numbers haven’t changed all that much.
The attached article from Forbes tracks the percentage that Republican nominees have received since 1932 for blacks and 1976 for Hispanics. While there may have been significant movement in isolated areas, the national numbers haven’t changed all that much.
The very article you quoted said that Romney got 26%, Trump 29% in 2016, and 31% in 2020.
As for black voters, similar small but significant gains going back to McCain.
Seems as as if OP's question is valid. Let's bookmark this and check in again after the midterms.
And Bush got 44% of the Hispanic vote in 2004 and Reagan got 37% in 1980. So the "gains" in the past few cycles aren't really outside the range of recent history.
The very article you quoted said that Romney got 26%, Trump 29% in 2016, and 31% in 2020.
As for black voters, similar small but significant gains going back to McCain.
Seems as as if OP's question is valid. Let's bookmark this and check in again after the midterms.
If you looked at the graphs, Trump received less than Dubya in 2004. The numbers have gone up and down, but the movement has been on the margins. There’s really not a lot to crow about there, but it is something to monitor.
Can Republicans following Trump build a true blue-collar coalition of white, black and brown workers, as Steve Bannon presaged, or will they continue to receive negligible minority support while hemorrhaging support from white college grad suburbanites?
Hispanics, at least in the South, tend to be very patriotic. They join the armed forces in disproportionate numbers. Article wonders whether the Democrats identity politics is pushing them to the Republicans.
"...Latinos in South Florida and the Rio Grande Valley in southern Texas showed similar swings toward Trump, who gained 23 percentage points in Miami-Dade County and flipped Zapata County, Texas, for the first time since the 19th century....
The culture wars certainly loom large. Perez argues that Democrats face a challenge since they are "so often embarrassed by America's more 'uncouth' elements," while there is a "jovial Latino Americanism" evident in campaign rallies that combine mostly spoken Spanish with "all-American, good-times Nascar vibes." Latinos, he adds, "see themselves not as Latinx, or even Latinos, but as Americans." If he's right, then betting the house on identity politics will prove costly...."
Repubs were aided significantly because they didn’t fear the virus. Trump campaign went to voters in the Valley, whereas Dems did not. It’s as simple as that. You can never underestimate the power of door to door knocking. Just like the article says, there are many whose livelihood depends on a healthy oil industry and aggressive border enforcement. Mex-American vote is in play, but I’d be surprised if Starr Cty were to go Repub again.
And Bush got 44% of the Hispanic vote in 2004 and Reagan got 37% in 1980. So the "gains" in the past few cycles aren't really outside the range of recent history.
Do you know what a "trajectory" is?
We know about Bush and Reagan...and then there was a big fall off, and no an upward "trajectory."
It really isn't THAT hard to understand.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bureaucat
If you looked at the graphs, Trump received less than Dubya in 2004. The numbers have gone up and down, but the movement has been on the margins. There’s really not a lot to crow about there, but it is something to monitor.
See above
Quote:
Originally Posted by Astral_Weeks
Can Republicans following Trump build a true blue-collar coalition of white, black and brown workers, as Steve Bannon presaged, or will they continue to receive negligible minority support while hemorrhaging support from white college grad suburbanites?
Time will tell.
Yes, indeed, which is exactly why I said that we should check in after the midterms.
We know about Bush and Reagan...and then there was a big fall off, and no an upward "trajectory."
It really isn't THAT hard to understand.
See above
Yes, indeed, which is exactly why I said that we should check in after the midterms.
The fall-off was really the 2008 election where absolutely no R stood a chance. People forget that Obama's gaudy 2008 numbers were greatly influenced by economic collapse and buyer's remorse for the Gulf War. Bush was politically radioactive when he left office- mush more so than Trump. Part of Bush's Hispanic performance was related to him being the former Governor of Texas and his brother being Governor of Florida. They had already mastered the task of maxxing out R support among Hispanic voters in 2 of the three largest Hispanic populated states in the nation.
The R gains this year were in percentages not actually reducing the margin in actual votes (except Florida.) So as more Hispanics vote and they are a larger percent of the voting pool, Dems can lose a point or two by percentage but still increase their overall totals within these states. Its the inverse of Trump again carrying whites strongly but getting burned by losing only a couple of percentage points among a proportionately declining Demo. This is why suburban whites played a much larger part in Biden's win than Hispanics.
I think people also forget just how diverse the totality of 'Hispanic' voters is. There are centuries old families in the Southwest who are Hispanic, their are folks who arrived in Florida from Central America 20 years ago, and folks who went from Puerto Rico to NY ten years ago. They might share very little in common outside of race.
As an aside- I also think Dems jumping on the constant rebranding over racial designation wears people out. I do not know a single real life person who refers to themselves as Latinx outside of a college campus or activists. One of my friends is a literature/pop culture professor at a college in NC. As part of a discussion, she asked the students to say how they would self identify, how their family identifies, and how they think others would identify them. Typically the discussion ends up in the past ten iterations of black/African-American and whites not using 'white.' Her lesson from the day was a kid who said his grandfather would slap him for using Latinx. I'm assuming gramps was not swayed by the AOC wing of the Democratic party.
I wonder would the democrats be for Open Borders if the Latinos would vote Republican, I doubt it
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