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Obama cut especially into Clinton's main base of support -- whites -- by exploiting her gender, winning 40 percent of white males in Indiana and 45 percent of white males in North Carolina
How did Obama exploit hilary's gender? I think the author of your article has some serious problems if he really thinks Obama coalition is weaker than John Kerry's.
Besides, if He had used that same analysis on the republican primaries, then there is no way in hell John McCain is going to win without the conservatives who repeatedly voted against him.
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"What do you call a candidate who wins 90 percent of the African-American vote, between 30 percent and 50 percent of the Hispanic vote and 40 percent of the white vote in a tight Democratic primary race?
A general election loser.
Apply those percentages to the general election, and the candidate will bomb. In 2004, President Bush won 43 percent of the Hispanic vote, 58 percent of the white vote and 11 percent of the African-American vote.
That means that John Kerry did better among Hispanics than Barack Obama has done in the Democratic primaries; better among whites than Obama has done in the Democratic primaries; and almost as well among African-Americans.
Obama's coalition is Kerry's, but weaker.
In a general election, candidates must appeal to the broadest base of support in order to win. Relying on small coteries of like-raced voters simply will not do it.
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"What do you call a candidate who wins 90 percent of the African-American vote, between 30 percent and 50 percent of the Hispanic vote and 40 percent of the white vote in a tight Democratic primary race?
A general election loser.
Apply those percentages to the general election, and the candidate will bomb. In 2004, President Bush won 43 percent of the Hispanic vote, 58 percent of the white vote and 11 percent of the African-American vote.
That means that John Kerry did better among Hispanics than Barack Obama has done in the Democratic primaries; better among whites than Obama has done in the Democratic primaries; and almost as well among African-Americans.
Obama's coalition is Kerry's, but weaker.
In a general election, candidates must appeal to the broadest base of support in order to win. Relying on small coteries of like-raced voters simply will not do it.
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Rep+1
If you really think that hispanics will give their majority of their vote to a republican, then you are seriously delusional. That analysis is innacurate and it was just written to make you republicans feel better about yourselves.
Obama's lead over McCain in PA (6 points) is bigger and more significant than McCain's lead over Obama in Florida (4 points) or McCain's lead over Obama in Ohio (2 points). The two candidates are practically tied in the latter two states. This is only the case because Obama has been distracted by the histrionics of Hillary Clinton. Once Hillary Clinton has been disposed of, Obama should pull ahead of John McCain and win the election.
That's possible, but Clinton runs much better than Obama against McCain in all three of those states:
If you really think that hispanics will give their majority of their vote to a republican, then you are seriously delusional. That analysis is innacurate and it was just written to make you republicans feel better about yourselves.
Right. I'm delusional.
Your username is "blacknight" yet you propose to speak for all hispanics.
One of us is clearly delusional.
I don't think the reps need to make themselves feel better about anything. Your infighting is destroying your own party. We are happy to sit back and watch it happen. Keep up the good work!
If you really think that hispanics will give their majority of their vote to a republican, then you are seriously delusional. That analysis is innacurate and it was just written to make you republicans feel better about yourselves.
Why wouldn't they? Most Hispanics are Catholics, pro-lifers. In addition, McCain wants to give them a path towards citizenship.
Also, don't forget the historical racial tensions between the two.
That's possible, but Clinton runs much better than Obama against McCain in all three of those states:
Who Wins the Election?
This is the spin that the Clintonistas are now putting forth: since they have already lost the primary contest by all criteria, the Clintonistas are now relying on opinion polls to argue that Hillary Clinton is more "electable". Disingenuous, to say the least. Why bother holding all those primaries and caucuses when we can just have opinion polls? Why spend all that money? Hillary Clinton is essentially saying: don't believe the evidence you see with your own eyes. The result of those primaries/caucuses don't count. Opinion polls are more reliable.
The only test of electability that has any shred of empirical validity is the primary contest itself. It is the only test that has ever been conducted involving millions of people turning in actual votes. And the result is decisive in Obama's favor.
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