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Title explains it. Both states barely went blue in 2020. They are in a transitional period. Which seems more likely to elect a Democrat governor this mid-term.
Kemp is an incumbent. In AZ the seat is open. Kemp has a positive approval rating. The GOP candidates in AZ are all on the far right. The Dem is more centrist and female. More than likely a constitutional amendment to permit abortions will be on the ballot. Ergo AZ is more likely to elect a dem. I don't think that makes it blue, though. Local issues.
I think Georgia will find a way to elect Abrams, the left has a love affair with this woman who has accomplished nothing in her life. Add to the mix that Kemp is not getting a Trump endorsement it's a longshot for Georgia. They also have election integrity issues in that state, so it will be interesting to see how Kemp reacts if he loses and suspects election fraud, given he didn't think there was any in 2020.
It'll be a difficult choice for Trumpers in Georgia. Kemp backstabbed Trump in their opinion, so voting for him would normally be impossible. But then there is Abrams whom they could never support. Do they just skip it or hold their noses and vote for Kemp? I think the latter. They know in their hearts that Kemp was right even as they deny.
Being in Arizona I think a Dem will be elected after Ducey. The Front runner will probably be Lake and she is just a full-fledged Trumper wich will get her nowhere in moderate AZ.
AZ has more transplants from CA and has an open seat w/ a far right Repub going against a moderate Dem...ergo AZ should flip first.
To be fair not all transplants from CA are Democrats. A lot of the ones who moved to Idaho are Republicans. Hence why that state is still solidly red despite receiving a large influx of California transplants. I’m not sure on the demographics of CA transplants in Arizona though.
In AZ Hispanics make up 32% of the population and may not be as supportive of Dem candidates as they have in the past.
Hispanic working class (noncollege) voters are emerging as an Achilles heel for the Democrats. Here are some facts about Hispanic working class voters that help bring this challenge for Democrats into focus. https://theliberalpatriot.substack.c...spanic-working
AZ has more transplants from CA and has an open seat w/ a far right Repub going against a moderate Dem...ergo AZ should flip first.
Georgia has a much larger Black population. Blacks are the most likely to vote Democratic. And one of the Georgia's reps is a crazy woman.
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