Seven pages and no one has mentioned that this is based upon a
national poll. Based upon our history, it’s what should be expected. The D’s have won 7 of the last 8 national popular votes. Since the turn of the century, the Democrats have won 5 of 6 national popular votes, but only 3 of 6 presidential elections, because of the power that the electoral college gives smaller states.
In the last POTUS election where the R candidate won the national popular vote (2004), George W. Bush received a larger margin in Texas (1.7 M) than his opponent did in California (1.2 M). That’s a half million vote R lead after the 2 largest states are counted.
In the 2020 POTUS election, Trump carried Texas by about 630,000 votes or a little more than 1/3rd of the Bush margin in 2004. Biden carried Cali by 5.1M, or more than 4 times the D margin from 2004. That’s a 4.5M D lead after the 2 largest states are counted.
The national popular vote winner has been virtually synonymous with the Electoral College winner for 90% of the time for well over 200 years, but the lack of competitiveness in the net popular vote in the largest states means that it’s probably no longer a reliable marker.
Unless something radical changes, expect to see the D candidate lead in national polls because of the glut of D votes in California, and to a much lesser extent, in the Northeast. If the D candidate doesn’t win the national popular vote by close to 5%, they’ll probably lose in the Electoral College. As the D edge increases in the most populous states, the more “wasted” D votes, and the higher the percentage win needs to be in the popular vote to prevail in the Electoral College.
Here’s what the national popular vote has looked like in the last 10 POTUS elections.
NATIONAL POPULAR VOTE (Last 10 elections: D7 R3)
2020: Biden 51.26% Trump 46.80% = D+ 4.46%
2016: H Clinton 48.02% Trump 46.93%= D+ 2.09%
2012: Obama 51.07% Romney 47.15%= D+ 3.92%
2008: Obama 52.86% McCain 45.60%= D+ 7.26%
2004: GW Bush 50.73% Kerry 48.26% = R+2.47%
2000: Gore 48.38% GW Bush 47.87% = D+0.51%
1996: B Clinton 49.23% Dole 40.72% = D+8.51%
1992: B Clinton 43.01% GHW Bush 37.45% = D+5.56%
1988: GHW Bush 53.37% Dukakis 45.65% = R+7.72%
1984: Reagan 58.77% Mondale 40.56% = R+18.21%
2000 to 2020 average = D 49.89% -R 47.51% = D+2.38%
https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
