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True, but perception matters. We have seen poll after poll where Americans say they are doing well in this economy but think that economic conditions are dire. If the recession headlines don't sway too many (let's be honest, with record low unemployment in many states and near record nationally it is a tough argument to make) then it quickly pivots back to inflation. July inflation numbers are going to show a major improvement because of the big gas price drops. And there are other issues that might invigorate Democrats and young people who generally sit out elections while complaining about the outcome. We'll see.
I don't expect a major improvement in July inflation numbers - costs for food, utilities and lodging certainly have not been moving down over the last month. House sale prices already have been moving down in part to the increase in mortgage rates.
I wouldn't put too much stock into wiping the floor during a midterm. I'm more interested in what happens when the Fed hikes interest rates a lot lot more to tame this beast.
Extra caution needs to be made when forecasting GDP growth for Q2, because in the Q2 GDP release the BEA does their annual benchmark revisions. When they do that all sorts of wacky changes can suddenly appear not only for the most recent quarter but for prior quarters as well.
In addition, it’s important to recognize that once a year the government goes back and revises all the GDP data for the past several years. That happens in July, including with the report arriving this Thursday. Given the strength in jobs and industrial production, it wouldn’t surprise us at all if Q1 is eventually revised positive.
In the meantime, we are forecasting growth at a +0.5% annual rate in Q2. Here’s how we get there ...
low unemployment rate and skyrocketing inflation almost always lead to a recession. Keep listening to Biden then, he's your boy. He said inflation was transitory a year ago. He either lied or is incredibly stupid. As Obama's top advisor says, "We have not had soft landings for moments when the unemployment was below 4 [percent] and the inflation was well above 4 [percent] ... Never happened in the United States going back 60, 70 years."
low unemployment rate and skyrocketing inflation almost always lead to a recession. Keep listening to Biden then, he's your boy. He said inflation was transitory a year ago. He either lied or is incredibly stupid. As Obama's top advisor says, "We have not had soft landings for moments when the unemployment was below 4 [percent] and the inflation was well above 4 [percent] ... Never happened in the United States going back 60, 70 years."
Well, we haven't had a global pandemic in the last 60 or 70 years, either.
I'm not saying this mystery advisor is necessarily wrong, I'm simply pointing out that how we got here is unique and the standard calculus might not apply due to that fact.
Are the Dems already at rock bottom, or could a recession hurt them even more in the upcoming elections?
Are there voters still teetering on the fence that a recession will push them over, and onto the Red side?
I just don't know if there's any more downside to the Dems polling metrics, or not.
I suppose if there is a recession, the next chance the Uber left has to pull out of it is ~October 28th, just 10 days before the Nov 8th election, because that is when the GDP figures will be released for Q3.
All the polling & surveys I've read say the economy is the #1 issue by far.
It doesn't influence anything, as anyone with a brain already knows we are in a recession.
Liberals (who are brainless zombies for the dems) will vote for dems regardless of what they do to them.
Well, we haven't had a global pandemic in the last 60 or 70 years, either.
I'm not saying this mystery advisor is necessarily wrong, I'm simply pointing out that how we got here is unique and the standard calculus might not apply due to that fact.
Additionally a war involving a global super power and the associated sanctions. The economic variables at play are unprecedented which is why nobody has a clear vision of the overall economy.
Additionally a war involving a global super power and the associated sanctions. The economic variables at play are unprecedented which is why nobody has a clear vision of the overall economy.
Reps to you.
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