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Status:
"everybody getting reported now.."
(set 24 days ago)
Location: Pine Grove,AL
29,560 posts, read 16,548,014 times
Reputation: 6042
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Eyebee Teepee
which existing seats?
do you think the young Texas Rep who just won a special election will be defeated in November?
what about Henry Cuellar, the Texas Dem Rep who opposes abortion but defeated his Progressive primary opponent, after the Roe decision was leaked and AFTER Texas' heartbeat law was passed?
Maybe you're thinking the "close races" where current Dem Reps are retiring en masse?
1. Regardless of if you think this is a red wave, it doesnt make sense to bank anything on a special election with 30,000 total votes, and the seat being redraw and therefore, the same constituents arent even voting for her in the fall.
2. as for Cuellar, most of the votes had actually already been cast by the time Roe was overturned. On top of that, he was indeed the incumbent. Not like it was an open primary.
I'd be paying attention to the "What happened in Kansas?" question. It appears Republicans are divided on abortion rights. Absolutely NOBODY predicted this.
But look at the numbers. As expected, turnout in the Republican gubernatorial primary was much higher than in the Democratic primary—roughly 450,000 to 275,000, with some precincts still to be counted. But turnout on the ballot measure blew those numbers away. More than 900,000 people voted on the abortion question. Even if you assume that everyone who voted in the Democratic gubernatorial primary also voted for the ballot measure, that leaves more than 250,000 “no” votes—roughly half the “no” constituency—that didn’t come from Democrats. And even if every “yes” vote on the ballot measure came from a Republican, that leaves at least 75,000 people who voted in the GOP gubernatorial primary but didn’t support the ballot measure.
This wasn’t just a backlash from the left or the center-left. It’s a warning that Republicans are divided on abortion
I'd be paying attention to the "What happened in Kansas?" question. It appears Republicans are divided on abortion rights. Absolutely NOBODY predicted this.
Very interesting stuff. Indeed, prior to the vote, the polls tended to show that the two sides were pretty equal, with the "Yes" slightly outpolling the "No" side.
But, it appears that many whom responded "Yes" to pollsters, were hesitant to admit to the pollster of their true position.
Once the person entered the voting booth, they voted as they really felt: for "No".
Very interesting stuff. Indeed, prior to the vote, the polls tended to show that the two sides were pretty equal, with the "Yes" slightly outpolling the "No" side.
But, it appears that many whom responded "Yes" to pollsters, were hesitant to admit to the pollster of their true position.
Once the person entered the voting booth, they voted as they really felt: for "No".
It's a very similar phenomena with what happened to Trump in 2016...people were hesitant to admit to the pollsters who they favored and 2016 was a really Big Miss. Same thing could be happening here. We will know come Nov.
It's a very similar phenomena with what happened to Trump in 2016...people were hesitant to admit to the pollsters who they favored and 2016 was a really Big Miss. Same thing could be happening here. We will know come Nov.
Exactly right. November will reveal all. Otherwise, it is all speculation.
Status:
"everybody getting reported now.."
(set 24 days ago)
Location: Pine Grove,AL
29,560 posts, read 16,548,014 times
Reputation: 6042
Quote:
Originally Posted by legalsea
Very interesting stuff. Indeed, prior to the vote, the polls tended to show that the two sides were pretty equal, with the "Yes" slightly outpolling the "No" side.
But, it appears that many whom responded "Yes" to pollsters, were hesitant to admit to the pollster of their true position.
Once the person entered the voting booth, they voted as they really felt: for "No".
The bold is not true, pollsters simply polled the wrong people. who a polling company defines as a likely voter is going to change what the overall percentages are.
^^^ IMHO you nailed it. the Dems wanted Roe v Wade overturned to rile up their base. The Libs have politicized every branch of the federal gov't & now have done so with the SCOTUS....sickening.
I trust NONE of them either, they are essentially on the same team...& WE, the 99%, are NOT on it!
This is hilarious. So to recap, The Dems "politicized the SC" by the right-wingers stacking it with far-right jurists who would overturn Roe v. Wade, and then when the deliberately far right-wing stacked SC went ahead and did exactly what the Republicans have been pushing for for decades, it's suddenly all a left-wing conspiracy?
You can't make up this kind of hilarity anywhere outside of the right-wing echo chambers, who no doubt buy this stuff hook, line and sinker.
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