New Democratic Internal Poll Has Marc Molinaro (R) Defeating Pat Ryan (D) By 8 Points, In NY-19 Special Election Tonight (house of representatives, Congress)
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Yet this was one of the most closely watched races of the night and the GOP lost.
True, but still consistent with the non-partisan predictions. As one who is rooting for a red wave (who knows if it'll materialize), I'd only be majorly concerned over this outcome if non-partisan predictions were that this was going to be a blowout win for the GOP candidate. But that's never been the case. The bulk of the predictions for this race was that it was a tossup, both before and after the decision overturning Roe was issued. This was not some unpredicted outcome (again, as far as non-partisan predictions and polling went).
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Originally Posted by prospectheightsresident
Yes, but it is a +4 district that Biden won by 2% and where the Dem incumbent won 55% of the vote in 2020.
It's hard for me to decipher much of anything from the results here for either side, to be honest. On the one hand, a strong win by the Republican would have been seen as a sign of a pending GOP wave; of course, a strong GOP win didn't occur and the Dem held on to win. On the other hand, the eventual Dem victory here is narrower than the Dem victory was in 2020 and roughly consistent to the Biden-Trump spread in the district (I gather that the district lines have changed slightly since then, but I'm not tracking anything too drastic, though I could be mistaken about that). I'd wager that a strong Roe backlash in a pretty balanced district would have seen a much stronger Dem victory tonight. Instead, the result is pretty consistent with the 2020 election results at the presidential level (2% spread), though the GOP candidate Molinaro greatly improved on the GOP nominee's performance in 2020 who managed 43.2%.
Republicans held this district from 2011 to 2019.
The Dems best performance in that time was 47.5%
Obama won it in 2012 with 52% of the vote. Trump won it 51-44, Biden 50-48
Delgato won 2018 51-46
As for 2020, Republican ran a nobody who the RNC abandoned. They felt NY State was one of the places the Trump backlash would be the hardest and they just didnt run anyone.
So yea, looking at the 2020 race here doesnt make sense because Repubicans didnt actually try
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Quote:
Originally Posted by prospectheightsresident
True, but still consistent with the non-partisan predictions. As one who is rooting for a red wave (who knows if it'll materialize), I'd only be majorly concerned over this outcome if non-partisan predictions were that this was going to be a blowout win for the GOP candidate. But that's never been the case. The bulk of the predictions for this race was that it was a tossup, both before and after the decision overturning Roe was issued. This was not some unpredicted outcome (again, as far as non-partisan predictions and polling went).
Toss up does not mean 50/50 chance
Most websites actually give both percentage chance of winning, and margin. some give you specific margin. (anything within 5 points is a toss up)
even on the sites that rated it a toss up , they had it around 60% Republican chance of winning. and like 52-48 for the actual margin.
Not a single poll had Ryan ahead, not even the Democratic insider ones, and no one even predicted him to win.
calling it a toss up to say people thought it was going to go either way is disingenuous, at the most, naïve at best(in the context of not knowing what toss up actually means on most sites).
Polls in this one have long trended to the Republican and any argument that it was a toss up is specious. The stunning victory by the Democrat once again shows the power of abortion to motivate Dem voters and defeat favored Republican candidates. Molinaro was lukewarm on women's rights to choose while Ryan made it a part of his ads and appearances. The bottom line is women know which party will stand for their rights to control their own bodies and which party represents the government's right to do that. And it appears they are going to make their voices heard.
The Dems will pay particular attention to this one as they shape their message for November.
i would guess that the turnout for this late august, special election to choose a candidate for a four-month term was light, so there’s hope that the outcome will be different this november. But still, the democrats managed to get out more of their voters than the republicans did, and that should be a wakeup call.
The GOP thought that the overturn of Roe wouldn't be an issue, based on this election that doesn't seem to be the case. Inflation, high gas prices yet a district that went for Trump in 2016 went to a democrat in a large turnout, why.
Democrat Pat Ryan has won a special election for an open congressional seat north of New York City that has been called a national bellwether ahead of the November midterms. “Choice was on the ballot. Freedom was on the ballot, and tonight choice and freedom won. We voted like our democracy was on the line because it is. We upended everything we thought we knew about politics and did it together,” Ryan tweeted early Wednesday morning after the Associated Press called the race.
It should be a good showing for the Republican, in tonight's special election in New York's Nineteenth Congressional District, if a Democratic internal poll has the Republican leading by eight percentage points.
Should be an interesting race!
Op,
In the end,Did you find it interesting?
How is it Thai you were so wrong in the prediction? Was it an anomaly, a fraudulent election? Did you put your trust in the wrong pollsters?
Have you recalibrated your predictions for other races?
How do you accept the loss and does it make you question your belief of how voters respond?
I ask because you seem so completely confident in your assessments.
i would guess that the turnout for this late august, special election to choose a candidate for a four-month term was light, so there’s hope that the outcome will be different this november. But still, the democrats managed to get out more of their voters than the republicans did, and that should be a wakeup call.
Why would democrats have a high voter turnout, I can only think of one reason.
Why would democrats have a high voter turnout, I can only think of one reason.
Yup, abortion is an emotional issue.
And that what this election was about.
The candidates made sure of that.
Abortion will win it for the democrats more often than is comfortable for republicans.
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