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It should be a good showing for the Republican, in tonight's special election in New York's Nineteenth Congressional District, if a Democratic internal poll has the Republican leading by eight percentage points.
I should add that if Mr. Molinaro succeeds in winning this election, tonight, then this will become the second House seat the Republicans have flipped from the Democrats, in this special election season. The Democrats have not flipped any, thus far.
This race is interesting. Not a blowout win for whoever wins, so kind of hard to say what this means for November. I note that RCP has called the race for the Dem with 99% reporting, but the NYT has not and only has 92% reporting with the same overall raw vote as RCP. I don’t know who to believe, but if the NYT is accurate, most of the outstanding vote seems to be in GOP areas.
Edit: spoke too soon. NYT just updated their estimates of vote total to be greater than 95% in.
This has been called. I posted this on another thread
This a +4 Republican district. This should have been a lay up for Republicans in this cycle. Ryan (D) 51.1% vs Molinaro (R) 48.9% District 19 NY. This is a bellwether district. Ryan beat Biden's number in 2020. I'm not seeing a wave here....and if you don't think Roe won't impact these midterms that's just being naive. I still think the GOP will take the House but I am losing conviction in that belief.
This has been called. I posted this on another thread
This a +4 Republican district. This should have been a lay up for Republicans in this cycle. Ryan (D) 51.1% vs Molinaro (R) 48.9% District 19 NY. This is a bellwether district. Ryan beat Biden's number in 2020. I'm not seeing a wave here....and if you don't think Roe won't impact these midterms that's just being naive. I still think the GOP will take the House but I am losing conviction in that belief.
Yes, but it is a +4 district that Biden won by 2% and where the Dem incumbent won 55% of the vote in 2020.
It's hard for me to decipher much of anything from the results here for either side, to be honest. On the one hand, a strong win by the Republican would have been seen as a sign of a pending GOP wave; of course, a strong GOP win didn't occur and the Dem held on to win. On the other hand, the eventual Dem victory here is narrower than the Dem victory was in 2020 and roughly consistent to the Biden-Trump spread in the district (I gather that the district lines have changed slightly since then, but I'm not tracking anything too drastic, though I could be mistaken about that). I'd wager that a strong Roe backlash in a pretty balanced district would have seen a much stronger Dem victory tonight. Instead, the result is pretty consistent with the 2020 election results at the presidential level (2% spread), though the GOP candidate Molinaro greatly improved on the GOP nominee's performance in 2020 who managed 43.2%.
Yes, but it is a +4 district that Biden won by 2% and where the Dem incumbent won 55% of the vote in 2020.
It's hard for me to decipher much of anything from the results here for either side, to be honest. On the one hand, a strong win by the Republican would have been seen as a sign of a pending GOP wave; of course, a strong GOP win didn't occur and the Dem held on to win. On the other hand, the eventual Dem victory here is narrower than the Dem victory was in 2020 and roughly consistent to the Biden-Trump spread in the district (I gather that the district lines have changed slightly since then, but I'm not tracking anything too drastic, though I could be mistaken about that). I'd wager that a strong Roe backlash in a pretty balanced district would have seen a much stronger Dem victory tonight. Instead, the result is pretty consistent with the 2020 election results at the presidential level (2% spread), though the GOP candidate Molinaro greatly improved on the GOP nominee's performance in 2020 who managed 43.2%.
Given Biden's approval ratings this should have been an easy GOP layup and the GOP candidate lost...yes narrowly. The GOP may actually lose seats in the Senate due to candidate "quality". The Generic ballot has tightened and so has the enthusiasm gap between the 2 parties. The only question we have left is will the GOP flip the House? As I stated I think they will but the claims of a Wave election have been severely diminished.
Given Biden's approval ratings this should have been an easy GOP layup and the GOP candidate lost...yes narrowly. The GOP may actually lose seats in the Senate due to candidate "quality". The Generic ballot has tightened and so has the enthusiasm gap between the 2 parties. The only question we have left is will the GOP flip the House? As I stated I think they will but the claims of a Wave election have been severely diminished.
Perhaps, but I'm still not convinced by much of anything based on the results here, though. Even with Biden's dismal approval ratings, I note that the Cook Political Report still had NY19 as "lean D" as late as late April 2022, which was down from "likely D": https://thenevadaglobe.com/congress/...-d-to-toss-up/ Note, this was even before the leaked draft opinion in the case overturning Roe was published by Politico. If Roe had such a huge impact on these individual races, I'd expect a much stronger win by the Dem here. Instead, as I mentioned, the spread is largely consistent with Biden's victory in the district in 2020 and the Molinaro improved on the GOP candidate's performance from 2020. And the victory is consistent with Cook's prediction a few months ago, though Cook did move the race to "tossup" in May of 2022; in short, this was never a race that public, non-partisan polling showed was a blowout for either candidate.
Last edited by prospectheightsresident; 08-23-2022 at 11:00 PM..
Perhaps, but I'm still not convinced by much of anything based on the results here, though. Even with Biden's dismal approval ratings, I note that the Cook Political Report still had NY19 as "lean D" as late as late April 2022, which was down from "likely D": https://thenevadaglobe.com/congress/...-d-to-toss-up/ Note, this was even before the leaked draft opinion in the case overturning Roe was published by Politico. If Roe had such a huge impact on these individual races, I'd expect a much stronger win by the Dem here. Instead, as I mentioned, the spread is largely consistent with Biden's victory in the district in 2020 and the Molinaro improved on the GOP candidate's performance from 2020. And the victory is consistent with Cook's prediction a few months ago, though Cook did move the race to "tossup" in May of 2022; in short, this was never a race that public, non-partisan polling showed was a blowout for either candidate.
Yet this was one of the most closely watched races of the night and the GOP lost.
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