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Old 08-31-2022, 07:47 PM
 
Location: Long Island (chief in S Farmingdale)
22,190 posts, read 19,470,309 times
Reputation: 5305

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Quote:
Originally Posted by SanJuanStar View Post
in 2020 general election 351,982 voted. 2022 Special election only 184,965 voted. Peltola barely won by splitting the Republican vote with 2 Republicans. This is not going to happen in the general. The Alaska GOP and governor will not let this happen. Democrats crack me up.


I think the last Democrat who won this seat in the general was in 1972. We need term limits badly. Young was in office since 1973. I was 2 and now I'm 52. Scary.
Again, the Special Election General rules and candidates are the same as the General Election in November (there might be a 4th candidate on the ballot in November)

Peltola didn't win because of a split Republican vote. Begich's votes were re-distributed based on 2nd choice, and not enough of Begich voters chose Palin 2nd.

 
Old 08-31-2022, 07:49 PM
 
13,461 posts, read 4,295,282 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jacqueg View Post
I for one am not deluding myself that Alaskans have suddenly turned blue, they haven't. I just think that many of them are sick of Trump and all the clowns in his car. Including Palin.

Trump is not on the ballot in Alaska or is from Alaska. Issues are and Biden is hurting Alaska. Typical Democrat to say Trump in on the ballot in Alaska and is the #1 issue. The GOP in Alaska has to decide who they will back in the general and win easily the general.
 
Old 08-31-2022, 07:52 PM
 
13,461 posts, read 4,295,282 times
Reputation: 5392
Quote:
Originally Posted by Smash255 View Post
Again, the Special Election General rules and candidates are the same as the General Election in November (there might be a 4th candidate on the ballot in November)

Peltola didn't win because of a split Republican vote. Begich's votes were re-distributed based on 2nd choice, and not enough of Begich voters chose Palin 2nd.

Weird voting laws. All polls have it red in November. Now you are telling me the Blue wave will land in Alaska in the general?


110,469 Republicans voted vs 74,496 Democrats in the first round. How did they split 52,340 Republican votes ( Begich) is beyond me.
 
Old 08-31-2022, 07:54 PM
 
Location: Home is Where You Park It
23,856 posts, read 13,754,224 times
Reputation: 15482
Quote:
Originally Posted by SanJuanStar View Post
Trump is not on the ballot in Alaska or is from Alaska. Issues are and Biden is hurting Alaska. Typical Democrat to say Trump in on the ballot in Alaska and is the #1 issue. The GOP in Alaska has to decide who they will back in the general and win easily the general.
You think Trump isn't on the ballot? He most certainly is. Just because his name isn't printed there...

There was a time not long ago when I would have agreed with you that Rs would easily win the general. Now, I'm beginning to wonder. But I AM pretty sure that Alaska won't suddenly fall back in love with Palin.

Last edited by jacqueg; 08-31-2022 at 08:02 PM..
 
Old 08-31-2022, 08:07 PM
 
Location: Florida
10,473 posts, read 4,042,712 times
Reputation: 8487
Quote:
Originally Posted by Technician5thGrade View Post
Right, but the GOP lost a seat they have held for 50 years. And the person who lost was a former governor, VP candidate and MAGA sympathizer.

If the GOP is losing seats they held for 50 years in a state like Alaska they are in trouble nationally. No question
Or perhaps we have more cheating going on with the democrats.
 
Old 08-31-2022, 08:08 PM
 
Location: Long Island (chief in S Farmingdale)
22,190 posts, read 19,470,309 times
Reputation: 5305
Quote:
Originally Posted by SanJuanStar View Post
Weird voting laws. All polls have it red in November. Now you are telling me the Blue wave will land in Alaska in the general?


110,469 Republicans voted vs 74,496 Democrats in the first round. How did they split 52,340 Republican votes ( Begich) is beyond me.
It is on the Alaska BOE site which I linked earlier and have done below

https://www.elections.alaska.gov/res...iledReport.pdf


1st Round
Peltola 75,761
Palin 58,945
Begich 53,756

Peltola and Palin advance, Begich is eliminated and his votes get redistributed based on 2nd choice which broke as follows

Begich to Palin 27,042
Begich to Peltola 15,445
Begich to no one 11,222 (47 over votes)

Palin got a little over 50% of Begich voters, Peltola got a little under 29% and about 21% did not list a 2nd choice. The Election in November will be under the same rules and methodology, with the same candidates. In addition since you mention the predictions, we will see what some of the others update it to if at all now that the Special Election results are out, Cook already has.
 
Old 08-31-2022, 08:08 PM
 
Location: Home is Where You Park It
23,856 posts, read 13,754,224 times
Reputation: 15482
Quote:
Originally Posted by SanJuanStar View Post
Weird voting laws. All polls have it red in November. Now you are telling me the Blue wave will land in Alaska in the general?


110,469 Republicans voted vs 74,496 Democrats in the first round. How did they split 52,340 Republican votes ( Begich) is beyond me.
Alaska has quite a few political parties - https://www.elections.alaska.gov/sta...20PRECINCT.htm

Which is why these "jungle primaries" are so interesting. More and more, if you want to understand elections, you need to stop thinking of them as between registered Rs and registered Ds. How those smaller parties and registered independents break is what is starting to decide elections.
 
Old 08-31-2022, 08:08 PM
 
32,071 posts, read 15,072,790 times
Reputation: 13690
Maybe she lost because she hasn't been in politics for awhile. Sometimes it's hard to make a comeback.
 
Old 08-31-2022, 08:19 PM
 
Location: Colorado
6,813 posts, read 9,361,187 times
Reputation: 8835
I haven’t been able to verify, but I saw on a comment on another website that apparently 11,000 or so folks who voted for Begich didn’t choose a second/third/fourth choice. Again, I don’t know if this is true.

I wonder how many people were confused about how ranked choice works.
 
Old 08-31-2022, 08:23 PM
 
1,140 posts, read 617,266 times
Reputation: 3656
Quote:
Originally Posted by warhorse78 View Post
Or perhaps we have more cheating going on with the democrats.
More stop the steal nonsense? Jeez, give it up already.
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