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Old 09-01-2022, 08:42 AM
 
Location: The Piedmont of North Carolina
6,035 posts, read 2,849,862 times
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I think this race will be much closer than it "should" have been, given Colorado's shift towards the Democratic Party over the last decade.

Two new polls have been released, one being a Republican internal poll and the other being a Democratic internal poll.

Democratic Poll: https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/...st2022Poll.pdf

Results:

Michael Bennet (D): 46%

Joe O'Dea (R): 35%

Brian Peotter (L): 7%

Undecided: 12%

With the margin between Senator Bennet and Mr. O'Dea being eleven percentage points, and twelve percent being undecided, this poll does not really give any insight into how this race will shape out. It should be noted, too, that this poll talked to registered voters, not likely voters.

Republican Poll: https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/n...nate-race-poll

Michael Bennet (D): 48%

Joe O'Dea (R): 47%

Undecided: 5%

While the number of undecided people is greater than the margin of the poll, I believe this poll to be the more accurate of the two, thought I do believe that Senator Bennet has the edge. This poll, also, used likely voters, unlike the Democratic poll, which is why I believe it to be the more accurate poll. However, it should be noted that this poll did not mention the Libertarian candidate, when the poll was conducted.

Neither poll has any candidate reaching 50% of the vote.

I think Senator Bennet has the edge in this race, but it has the potential to be a sleeper race...
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Old 09-01-2022, 09:45 AM
 
Location: Long Island (chief in S Farmingdale)
22,190 posts, read 19,470,309 times
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If we see more polls showing it close that is one thing, but I would not put much stock into one internal GOP poll showing it as a close race.
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Old 09-01-2022, 09:46 AM
 
9,881 posts, read 4,650,430 times
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California Part Deux

Like many other states it depends how much the Colorado public has been affected by the Biden economy.
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Old 09-01-2022, 09:48 AM
 
Location: The Piedmont of North Carolina
6,035 posts, read 2,849,862 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Smash255 View Post
If we see more polls showing it close that is one thing, but I would not put much stock into one internal GOP poll showing it as a close race.
I agree.

I also would not put much stock into one Democratic poll that shows Senator Bennet winning by eleven percentage points, when undecided people made up twelve percentage of people polled.

I believe this race will be closer than it "should" be, but that Senator Bennet still has the edge, unless something happens between now and Election Day.
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Old 09-01-2022, 10:05 PM
Status: "everybody getting reported now.." (set 25 days ago)
 
Location: Pine Grove,AL
29,561 posts, read 16,552,753 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by anononcty View Post
California Part Deux

Like many other states it depends how much the Colorado public has been affected by the Biden economy.
I see 3 polls in this race from August


PPP Bennett +11 (8/31)
Tarrance Group( GOP attorney's general poll )Bennet+1 (8/25)
Trafalgar Bennett +6 (8/19)



the GOP poll in the middle actually has Bennett winning independents 49-44. The only way the GOP numbers would line up to D+1 is simply if Democrats are staying home in November in Colorado.

Is that possible, sure. Is it even possible some Dems dont like Bennett and are willing to vote for O'Dea, sure. is it likely that this race is actually 1 point, no.
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Old 09-02-2022, 01:54 PM
 
3,048 posts, read 1,152,768 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by anononcty View Post
California Part Deux

Like many other states it depends how much the Colorado public has been affected by the Biden economy.
O'Dea is making a good showing, but Bennett is not going to lose his seat. The economy is very good here, and with a glaring exception on the western slope, we prefer our politicians to be low-key.
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Old 09-03-2022, 11:52 AM
 
Location: From Denver, CO to Hong Kong China
900 posts, read 375,821 times
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Bannett win...If the GOP wants to regain its majority in the Senate, it is not for Colorado that they should cast their chances, Colorado is no longer within reach of the GOP... just look at the low level of candidates this year in the state, they practically abandoned all disputes locals.... they had to turn to the businessman O Dea so that his defeat in the senate race would not be so humiliating.
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Old 09-03-2022, 12:24 PM
 
Location: az
13,754 posts, read 8,009,665 times
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There is something going on here in Colorado politics that is not much different than what happened in Virginia exactly one year ago — a shift away from the status quo and the odds-on favorite Democrat toward his Republican challenger.
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/o...-just-got-real


Trafalgar has Bennet up by 5 in poll taken about a month ago.
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Old 09-03-2022, 04:33 PM
 
1,651 posts, read 868,691 times
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Not surprising. This has been the tendency for decades. Colorado while blue isn't Navy blue. A moderate Republican with no ties to Trump or other extremes (real or imagined) can have a chance in a mid-term year.
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Old 09-03-2022, 07:22 PM
 
Location: Arizona
6,105 posts, read 2,727,097 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ice_Major View Post
Not surprising. This has been the tendency for decades. Colorado while blue isn't Navy blue. A moderate Republican with no ties to Trump or other extremes (real or imagined) can have a chance in a mid-term year.
Fat chance you will get that with todays GOP.
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