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Old 09-03-2022, 03:56 PM
 
Location: Virginia
491 posts, read 394,879 times
Reputation: 807

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Not surprised at all considering what Trump has been doing. In my long life I have only voted for one democrat and he was a state senator who served in a time when politicians cared about all the residents of their districts. But for the first time in my life I may be voting either independent or for the left. No longer will I waste a vote on Trump or any mini Trump. Our party has blown it and I worry it may never recover. Now I'll sit back and watch the insults fly and how some of us cannot handle a few mean tweets from Trump. Some are just special enough to really believe that's all Trump is guilty of.

Independent voters are now leaning toward Democrats in the 2022 midterm elections: WSJ poll
John L. Dorman 4 hours ago




https://www.businessinsider.com/inde...den-gop-2022-9
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Old 09-03-2022, 08:58 PM
 
Location: az
13,734 posts, read 7,999,139 times
Reputation: 9402
Quote:
Originally Posted by Countryfreak View Post
Not surprised at all considering what Trump has been doing. In my long life I have only voted for one democrat and he was a state senator who served in a time when politicians cared about all the residents of their districts. But for the first time in my life I may be voting either independent or for the left. No longer will I waste a vote on Trump or any mini Trump. Our party has blown it and I worry it may never recover. Now I'll sit back and watch the insults fly and how some of us cannot handle a few mean tweets from Trump. Some are just special enough to really believe that's all Trump is guilty of.

Independent voters are now leaning toward Democrats in the 2022 midterm elections: WSJ poll
John L. Dorman 4 hours ago


https://www.businessinsider.com/inde...den-gop-2022-9

No insults. If you don't want to vote for Trump should he run again... don't.
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Old 09-03-2022, 11:12 PM
 
Location: az
13,734 posts, read 7,999,139 times
Reputation: 9402
Like him or not but there's no denying Trump can still draw a crowd.
https://www.pahomepage.com/election/...imum-capacity/

One big advantage Trump has over other candidates is he clearly enjoys the campaign trail.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/vi...president.html
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Old 09-04-2022, 04:08 AM
 
Location: Virginia
491 posts, read 394,879 times
Reputation: 807
Quote:
Originally Posted by john3232 View Post
No insults. If you don't want to vote for Trump should he run again... don't.
I think you're missing the point. The evidence seems to be mounting that Trump is losing support from those in or near the middle of the road. I've always been just right of the center of the road but that line has narrowed in recent years. Trump can ill afford to lose those voters but he is doing his best to make sure he loses again. He doesn't need Biden to lose as he will do it on his own.
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Old 09-04-2022, 06:30 AM
 
8,312 posts, read 3,927,691 times
Reputation: 10651
Quote:
Originally Posted by john3232 View Post
Like him or not but there's no denying Trump can still draw a crowd.
https://www.pahomepage.com/election/...imum-capacity/

One big advantage Trump has over other candidates is he clearly enjoys the campaign trail.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/vi...president.html
There is no question that Trump is hardening his base. We can read it right here on this forum. His remaining supporters get ever more extreme, they resort to increasingly fanciful lies and alternate realities in order to prop up their idol.

The problem for Trump is that this hardcore base is not going to be sufficient for him to win a Presidential election.

The Big Lie acceptance in the GOP is a good way to determine how he would fare in 2024. Right now about 70% of Republicans believe that Biden "stole" the election. A pretty shocking statistic, true. But the fact that THIRTY PERCENT of Republicans reject Trump's Big Lie is a huge problem for him. He HAS to have every Republican vote he can get in order to win - we know this because he barely won in 2016 with a tiny margin.

The great majority of people that don't accept Trump's lie about the 2020 election will never vote for him. It's a bridge too far, even the dumbest voter out there understands the danger of electing someone who in the past refused to accept the results of a certified election.

Trump can enjoy his rallies, he can run his mouth on "Truth Social" all day long, but he is not going to win the Presidency in 2024 if he decides to run. The 30% of Republicans that won't toe the line, that he rejects as "RINOS" are either going to vote Independent, or they won't vote at all.

Last edited by GearHeadDave; 09-04-2022 at 07:13 AM..
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Old 09-04-2022, 08:48 AM
 
Location: az
13,734 posts, read 7,999,139 times
Reputation: 9402
If the Rep do well this Nov. including a majority of the Trump endorsed candidates he's running. If not he's out.

Now, I think most will agree Biden had a good August but a rematch against Trump in 2024? The MSM won't be able to carry Biden across the finish line like they did in 2020. In a rematch Trump likely will win.

The Dems dump Biden and they'll have to go with Harris which isn't much better.
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Old 09-04-2022, 08:49 AM
 
Location: Buckeye, AZ
38,936 posts, read 23,897,671 times
Reputation: 14125
Quote:
Originally Posted by Countryfreak View Post
Not surprised at all considering what Trump has been doing. In my long life I have only voted for one democrat and he was a state senator who served in a time when politicians cared about all the residents of their districts. But for the first time in my life I may be voting either independent or for the left. No longer will I waste a vote on Trump or any mini Trump. Our party has blown it and I worry it may never recover. Now I'll sit back and watch the insults fly and how some of us cannot handle a few mean tweets from Trump. Some are just special enough to really believe that's all Trump is guilty of.

Independent voters are now leaning toward Democrats in the 2022 midterm elections: WSJ poll
John L. Dorman 4 hours ago




https://www.businessinsider.com/inde...den-gop-2022-9
Part of it is Trump, I'm sure a lot of it also is the abortion issues.
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Old 09-04-2022, 08:59 AM
 
Location: az
13,734 posts, read 7,999,139 times
Reputation: 9402
Quote:
Originally Posted by GearHeadDave View Post
There is no question that Trump is hardening his base. We can read it right here on this forum. His remaining supporters get ever more extreme, they resort to increasingly fanciful lies and alternate realities in order to prop up their idol.

The problem for Trump is that this hardcore base is not going to be sufficient for him to win a Presidential election.

The Big Lie acceptance in the GOP is a good way to determine how he would fare in 2024. Right now about 70% of Republicans believe that Biden "stole" the election. A pretty shocking statistic, true. But the fact that THIRTY PERCENT of Republicans reject Trump's Big Lie is a huge problem for him. He HAS to have every Republican vote he can get in order to win - we know this because he barely won in 2016 with a tiny margin.

The great majority of people that don't accept Trump's lie about the 2020 election will never vote for him. It's a bridge too far, even the dumbest voter out there understands the danger of electing someone who in the past refused to accept the results of a certified election.

Trump can enjoy his rallies, he can run his mouth on "Truth Social" all day long, but he is not going to win the Presidency in 2024 if he decides to run. The 30% of Republicans that won't toe the line, that he rejects as "RINOS" are either going to vote Independent, or they won't vote at all.
The same claim was made repeatedly during 2016 and turned out to be wrong. Sound bites/quips from last nights rally in PA will make the local news stations which is the key.

However, Trump has yet to say if he's running in 2024 and that will depend on the results this Nov.
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Old 09-04-2022, 09:06 AM
 
Location: Home is Where You Park It
23,856 posts, read 13,749,968 times
Reputation: 15482
Quote:
Originally Posted by john3232 View Post
The same claim was made repeatedly during 2016 and turned out to be wrong. Sound bites/quips from last nights rally in PA will make the local news stations which is the key.

However, Trump has yet to say if he's running in 2024 and that will depend on the results this Nov.
Have you forgotten that Trump won with fewer votes than Clinton? And he has not gotten more popular with voters, especially independent voters, since then.

Registered voters by party, 2020

Independents, 34%
Ds, 33%
Rs, 29%

https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tan...-and-religion/

I agree with you though, that much depends on what happens this November.
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Old 09-04-2022, 09:30 AM
 
Location: Cape Cod
24,492 posts, read 17,232,699 times
Reputation: 35784
What a silly poll. Why would Trump who is not even on the ticket in November and still has not declared if he will even run in 2024 have anything to do with swaying independent voters to either side?



The way this independent voter sees it, the Dems have been on a rampage of destruction since before Trump won in 2016. They have been assaulting the very foundations of America and since Biden took over has there been anything positive at all? On day one he signed all those EO's half of which were out of spite for Trump and a slap in the face to Americans. We are now paying the price as we live through the greatest "I told you so" Ever.



I like Trump but I do not love him and I would actually rather he didn't run again because the Democrats were ugly enough when he was President and I fear another stint would send them over the edge and that is not good for America. Of course anyone with an "R" next to their name is going to receive the wrath of the Dems and their media machine so it will be ugly no matter.



Do you like Open Borders, Inflation, Rising Crime and all the other nonsense that the Dems are ramming through then vote for a Democrat. If not then vote for America.
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