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For those who believe political polls 30+ days out...
White Georgia Incumbant Governor, Brian Kemp, is polling at 21% with African-Americans in the GA Governors race against Stacy Abrams, an African-American opponent.
The House and Senate will be interesting to watch to see who gets control.
The house is GONE! So Democrats should stop with the b.s. to get money from the base and give them false hope. Even if the Democrats win ALL toss up races and the save ones, they still will be short. Pelosi is done. The 3 top issues for voters favor Republicans.
GOP has 212 seats now and they only need 6 seats for a majority and new speaker. 3 options:
1) GOP wins 23 seats for a total of 235 seats which is the same number Democrats got in 2018.
2) GOP wins 30 seats for a total of 242 seats which is the same number GOP got in 2010 majority
3) GOP wins 18 seats for a total of 230 seats which is the same number GOP got in 1994 take over.
See, in the 1994 and 2010 elections the GOP had to get 54 and 63 seats to get the final total majority. The 2022 GOP doesn't. They are starting at 212 and 30-35 seats win would be a great night. If they could win 38 seats that would put them with 250 total and beat the majorities of 1994 and 2010 GOP wins and even the 2018 Democrat win.
The reason the GOP in 2022 doesn't have to win a lot is because they won 14 seats in 2020 from 197 before for a 212 total. The 1994 and 2010 GOP only had 176 seats and 179 seats before the take over.
If the Georgia poll turns out to be correct, & it also goes in a similar direction nationwide, the Democrat party is in big trouble.
Six months ago the Democrats weren't expecting to win in the midterms. Suddenly they are competitive. It seems the projected red wave has turned into a ripple.
We'll see how things turn out in the end, but it's pretty apparent that the big win the GOP was counting on is disappearing. Maybe they shouldn't have ticked off 51% of the population and continue to support a man who thinks he can declassify documents with his mind. Those things are certainly not helping the Republicans in this election cycle.
The reason the GOP in 2022 doesn't have to win a lot is because they won 14 seats in 2020 from 197 before for a 212 total. The 1994 and 2010 GOP only had 176 seats and 179 seats before the take over.
Who can forget Chris Stirewalt on Fox declaring early in the night that Republicans were going to lose a double digit number of seats in the House. He was subsequently fired, though he claims it's because he called AZ early. That was egregious in-and-of itself, given that the race was decided by less than 11,000 votes, but the House call was far worse because he was off by like 25 seats.
Quote:
Originally Posted by HeyJude514
Six months ago the Democrats weren't expecting to win in the midterms. Suddenly they are competitive. It seems the projected red wave has turned into a ripple.
We'll see how things turn out in the end, but it's pretty apparent that the big win the GOP was counting on is disappearing. Maybe they shouldn't have ticked off 51% of the population and continue to support a man who thinks he can declassify documents with his mind. Those things are certainly not helping the Republicans in this election cycle.
Polls are turning in key states, including NV, so I wouldn't be so confident if I were you. Republicans are hard to poll now, so any race that shows them up close to election day is probably a loser for the big D.
I've long maintained that working class and independent voters will break hard for Republicans this year. Highly credentialed suburban women can stamp their feet and scream about how without easy access to the baby vacuum their daughters won't become GIRLBOSS (TM) because that dirty boy down the street is bound to stick it in her and not have any consequences because PATRIARCHY, but many of them were already voting Democrat anyway. You're counting on those that were inclined to vote Republican switching and ignoring the massive $hitshow that the Biden admin is presiding over. That's counting on a pretty narrow block of people, vs. a much larger one. I'll take that trade any day.
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