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Well, Nate Silver himself (who runs .538) published the following chart documenting all the polling mistakes in 2020. Maybe you should educate yourself a little bit instead of commenting on things you don't seem to understand.
Quote:
There were big misses in some swing states
Joe Biden’s final FiveThirtyEight polling average in each battleground race compared to his vote share margin in each race
BIDEN’S LEAD OR DEFICIT
POLLING AVERAGE ACTUAL RESULT DIFF
ME-2 +3 -8 -11
Wisconsin +8 +1 -7
Iowa -1 -8 -7
Florida +3 -3 -6
Michigan +8 +3 -5
Ohio -1 -6* -5
Texas -1 -6 -5
New Hampshire +11 +7 -4
Maine (statewide) +13 +9 -4
Pennsylvania +5 +2* -3
Arizona +3 +0 -3
North Carolina +2 -1 -3
Virginia +12 +10 -2
Minnesota +9 +7 -2
Nevada +5 +3 -2
Georgia +1 +0 -1
Colorado +13 +14 +1
NE-2 +4 +7 +3
* In Ohio and Pennsylvania, actual results reflects expected changes once all votes are counted.
SOURCES: POLLS, ABC NEWS, THE COOK POLITICAL REPORT, STATE WEBSITES
Well, Nate Silver himself (who runs .538) published the following chart documenting all the polling mistakes in 2020. Maybe you should educate yourself a little bit instead of commenting on things you don't seem to understand.
How were they wrong those polls were sent to everyone 538 only reports what polling says.
True. However, Robert Cahaly/Trafalgar has been saying for months many of the polls are off.
If he's right what's the point of using poll averages proved by Silver months (esp. months before an election) when they are always skewed in the same direction: favoring Dems.
And if Cahaly turns out to be correct about a "submerged" Rep vote others continuously miss. He'll likely be the media go-to pollster in 2024 and his polls given the most weight.
True. However, Robert Cahaly/Trafalgar has been saying for months many of the polls are off.
If he's right what's the point of using poll averages proved by Silver months (esp. months before an election) when they are always skewed in the same direction: favoring Dems.
And if Cahaly turns out to be correct about a "submerged" Rep vote others continuously miss. He'll likely be the media go-to pollster in 2024 and his polls given the most weight.
What does 538 have to do with those claims one pollster is making? The statement above was 538 bent the numbers to give DEMS an edge. They have Trafalgar in their averages as well poling is never going to be perfect and it's a toss-up if both are within the margin of error. When have a solid 10% lead and growing like Josh Shapiro has over Doug Mastriano have to admit in this case polling going to be right.
Trafalgar made the same claims by the way in 2020 they said Trump would win.
What does 538 have to do with those claims one pollster is making? The statement above was 538 bent the numbers to give DEMS an edge. They have Trafalgar in their averages as well poling is never going to be perfect and it's a toss-up if both are within the margin of error. When have a solid 10% lead and growing like Josh Shapiro has over Doug Mastriano have to admit in this case polling going to be right.
Trafalgar made the same claims by the way in 2020 they said Trump would win.
But that's just it. Trafalgar has Shapiro up by 2. Not 10. Silver makes predications based on the data provided. If this data is continuously faulty esp. several months before an election why should anyone care what they report?
Nov. will show (one way or the other) just how well Trafalgar tracks the various races.
Here's New York Times chief political analyst Nate Cohn preparing his followers they might be in for a long night this Nov. (Scroll down for his twitter feed.) https://redstate.com/sister-toldjah/...-apart-n637557
Last edited by john3232; 10-05-2022 at 11:18 AM..
Reason: Mistake. twitter feed: Cohn not Silver
Can you imagine the right wingers will go crazy if Schiff is speaker can't think who they hate more Pelosi or Schiff.
there's a better chance Schiff will be censured by the Republican House than him ever becoming Speaker.
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