Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
RCP, fivethirtyeight, and Trafalgar were way off when came to the 2022 midterms. I've never trusted the polls because there is no way to really poll voters effectively.
Can the polls really be trusted anymore after their bungled predictions?
Until we have election integrity it’s hard to blame the pollsters. The Democrats are cheating all day long in blue jurisdictions but nobody will ever prove it. They aren’t going to investigate themselves for the fraud they’re committing.
RCP, fivethirtyeight, and Trafalgar were way off when came to the 2022 midterms. I've never trusted the polls because there is no way to really poll voters effectively.
Can the polls really be trusted anymore after their bungled predictions?
I have no idea.
I’m looking forward to why they say they got it sooo wrong.
Also, did any of the pollsters get in more in the ball park.
RCP, fivethirtyeight, and Trafalgar were way off when came to the 2022 midterms. I've never trusted the polls because there is no way to really poll voters effectively.
Can the polls really be trusted anymore after their bungled predictions?
Once again.
RCP and 538 DO NOT CONDUCT POLLING
they literally just average them and put them on their website in one convenient place for you to view them.
Trafalgar on the other hand is a pollster, and was always bad.
they literally just average them and put them on their website in one convenient place for you to view them.
Trafalgar on the other hand is a pollster, and was always bad.
That’s true but don’t they massage the polling data somewhat. Give it weights, comment on it. Split it up in categories that they think are important. They do value add (?) in the way they consolidate the different polls.
How are polls even conducted these days when most don't have landlines. I won't answer my cell if I don't know who's calling because it's mainly spam. If it's important they leave a message. Plus it's so easy to lie if polled. People rely too much on polls. The polls predicted a red wave which didn't happen. Polls predicted Hillary would win as well.
That’s true but don’t they massage the polling data somewhat. Give it weights, comment on it. Split it up in categories that they think are important. They do value add (?) in the way they consolidate the different polls.
weighted as in number of people polled, yes.
categorize as in who has the better winning average vs who got the divergence in the poll correct, yes
None of that changes data and you can view all of it on their site.
The polls totally missed the young voters. Phone polling clearly doesn't work anymore. They need to find a way to poll on social media. That's where that audience lives.
The polls totally missed the young voters. Phone polling clearly doesn't work anymore. They need to find a way to poll on social media. That's where that audience lives.
Another MSM lie. Youth turnout was around 12 percent. Just like the last many elections.
How are polls even conducted these days when most don't have landlines. I won't answer my cell if I don't know who's calling because it's mainly spam. If it's important they leave a message. Plus it's so easy to lie if polled. People rely too much on polls. The polls predicted a red wave which didn't happen. Polls predicted Hillary would win as well.
Most companies will do cell phone calling and some will put info on their caller ID that identifies them as a polling company. Sample is usually gotten through a random selection of cell phone numbers, a random sample of addresses where a phone number is appended to the address, or the sample is selected from the voter file for a given area.
Most political polls are conducted over a 3 to 5 day period so they don't have time to leave a message and wait for you to call back or to take the time to call you back after leaving a message. However some companies may try to build a panel and survey you at different time, but that is less likely for political polls.
No matter how the sample is selected, the pollster likely has information about you like age, political affiliation, voting history, home ownership status, race, income, education etc. Now even though you may not answer the phone, someone in your area with similar characteristics will and they will be the one to represent people like you. Think about it, of the people that you know around the same gender, race, education level, political affiliation, age, as you, how likely are they to vote for the same person you will vote for? How many of the variables have to change before you are certain that you an that person would never vote for the same person?
As for people lying, that is taken into consideration. Most people who consent to take a poll or any survey take the task seriously. Interviewers are trained to detect problem respondents, questions can be added to check to see if you are giving inconsistent answers, they may ask a variety of questions and you wouldn't know which ones are the ones they are using, remember when I said they had info on you before even calling you, well if you lie about that info, it could cause them to just toss your interview.
Pollsters did not predict a red wave, they just gave an estimate on the odds that an event is going to happen, but just because something is likely to happen doesn't mean that it is going to happen. The red wave was predicted by people (the talking heads on Fox News, CNN, and other channels) who took those odds and decided to go with person that was favored.
If anything, pollsters likely had difficulty in modeling the likely voters. Before they start polling, pollsters create a quota of who they need to talk to based on previous history but when you are facing increased turnout and higher numbers of new votes it's hard to know who you should include and how many. Also I believe that they may not have asked the right questions, they generally ask the same questions over and over to watch the trends. But it's quite possible that additional questions may have teased out if the 75% who said the country is going in the wrong direction blame only Democrats (and will vote against them) of if they think the Republicans.
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
