AZ Debate 10/6

[john3232]

Originally Posted by kell490

Latest poll OH Predictive Insights has Kelly +13

It's absurd to think that poll is anywhere close to being accurate. All it does is skew the 538 average.

[jgustav]

Originally Posted by john3232

It's absurd to think that poll is anywhere close to being accurate. All it does is skew the 538 average.

Victor received 15% of the votes in this new poll.

[kell490]

Originally Posted by john3232

It's absurd to think that poll is anywhere close to being accurate. All it does is skew the 538 average.

Would you say the same thing if a republican was leading in the polls.

[john3232]

Originally Posted by kell490

Would you say the same thing if a republican was leading in the polls.

Of course!

If Trafalgar comes out this week and reports Master up 7 or 8 (never mind... 13) over Kelly. Forget it. I'd be the first to say that sounds way off.

Again this is why I don't like using 538 average. All it takes is a one or two ridiculous outliners to throw off the overall score.

[kell490]

Originally Posted by john3232

Of course!

If Trafalgar comes out this week and reports Master up 7 or 8 (never mind... 13) over Kelly. Forget it. I'd be the first to say that sounds way off.

Again this is why I don't like using 538 average. All it takes is a one or two ridiculous outliners to throw off the overall score.

RCP gives gives Kelly 4.5% and they are predicting Mark Kelly will win.

[john3232]

Originally Posted by kell490

RCP gives gives Kelly 4.5% and they are predicting Mark Kelly will win.

All those polls were conducted before the 10/6 debate. Let's see what comes out this week.

With regards to the RCP average: I think the 4.5% Kelly number is off. However, it's certainly a possibility.