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Found this article online this morning. Control of the US House of Representatives hinged on 3,603 votes.
The breakdown:
Colorado 3rd District - Republican Lauren Boebert won by 554 votes
California 13th District - Republican John Duarte won by 593 votes
Michigan 10th District - Republican John James won by 1,601 votes
Iowa 3rd District - Republican Zach Nunn won by 2,144 votes
New York 17th District - Republican Michael Lawler won by 2,314 votes
That's a total of 7,206 votes. If a little more than half of those voters had crossed over to vote for the Democratic candidate, then the Democratic Party would have retained their House majority.
Keep in mind that these vote totals are not finalized, they still need to be certified by their county boards and may change slightly from the numbers shown above. But I'm thinking that any change in number of votes will be in the 10's or less than 100, no big swings in the totals should occur.
With the results you presented, I would additionally be curious as to how many votes the GoP lost the next potential 5 seats from being a pickup...the next 10?
With the results you presented, I would additionally be curious as to how many votes the GoP lost the next potential 5 seats from being a pickup...the next 10?
Last edited by armourereric; 11-29-2022 at 12:10 PM..
Reason: Duplicate
The top 5 closest races that Democrats won in the 2022 US House elections:
New Mexico 2nd - Democrat Gabriel Vasquez by 1,342
Colorado 8th - Democrat Yadira Caraveo by 1,625
Connecticut 5th - Democrat Jahana Hayes by 1,961
New York 18th - Democrat Pat Ryan by 2,608
Washington 3rd - Democrat Marie Glusenkamp Perez by 2,635
A total of 10,171 votes. If the 3,603 votes in the Republican wins had swung Democratic, then the Republicans would have needed 5,086 votes to swing Republican in the races listed above in order to make up those five seats.
As for the next 6 thru 10 Democratic House victories, they start reaching into margins of victory of 10,000 votes pretty quickly.
There's no currently compiled list of all House election results, probably because vote certification is still going on in all (or nearly all) states. I had to compile the list above from going through the CNN election results web pages, scanning just the Democratic victories, picking those Democratic wins that were pretty close percentage wise, and then drilling down into about 7 races to get the 5 closest ones.
First, it wasn't "close" - the GOP won the national popular vote by around 4,000,000 votes for the House. Second, if you want to de-contextualize it and say it was "close," the only reason it was close is because of extreme Democrat gerrymanders in places gerrymandered by Democrats like Illinois, Michigan, Pennsylvania, New Jersey. I can't say New York anymore, because the Courts threw out the Democrats' gerrymander, resulting in a mini-red wave in New York. That would have happened all over the country but for Democrats rigging the election with extreme gerrymanders.
First, it wasn't "close" - the GOP won the national popular vote by around 4,000,000 votes for the House. Second, if you want to de-contextualize it and say it was "close," the only reason it was close is because of extreme Democrat gerrymanders in places gerrymandered by Democrats like Illinois, Michigan, Pennsylvania, New Jersey. I can't say New York anymore, because the Courts threw out the Democrats' gerrymander, resulting in a mini-red wave in New York. That would have happened all over the country but for Democrats rigging the election with extreme gerrymanders.
In fairness should you not be bringing up possible voter fraud in those very close races? You would if the GOP had lost. Because so many MAGA say voter fraud is a huge problem.
First, it wasn't "close" - the GOP won the national popular vote by around 4,000,000 votes for the House. Second, if you want to de-contextualize it and say it was "close," the only reason it was close is because of extreme Democrat gerrymanders in places gerrymandered by Democrats like Illinois, Michigan, Pennsylvania, New Jersey. I can't say New York anymore, because the Courts threw out the Democrats' gerrymander, resulting in a mini-red wave in New York. That would have happened all over the country but for Democrats rigging the election with extreme gerrymanders.
Illinois is the only one of the ones you mentioned that were a Democratic Gerrymander. No longer having a Republican gerrymander (Michigan and Pennsylvania) does not = a Democratic Gerrymander.
House vote total is GOP up by about 3.% or 3.25 million pending final certified results.
First, it wasn't "close" - the GOP won the national popular vote by around 4,000,000 votes for the House.
Sorry to burst your bubble, but winning by 4 million votes for the US House means absolutely nothing. Remember, Hilary Clinton received 2.8 million more votes than Donald Trump in the 2016 US Presidential election by 2.8 million votes, yet lost the election.
US House elections are like the Electoral College on steroids, but instead of 50 states (most winner take all), it's 435 districts (most winner take all). It doesn't matter how many total votes, it matters where those votes are cast.
Quote:
Second, if you want to de-contextualize it and say it was "close," the only reason it was close is because of extreme Democrat gerrymanders in places gerrymandered by Democrats like Illinois, Michigan, Pennsylvania, New Jersey. I can't say New York anymore, because the Courts threw out the Democrats' gerrymander, resulting in a mini-red wave in New York. That would have happened all over the country but for Democrats rigging the election with extreme gerrymanders.
Well, you're wrong.
Michigan doesn't gerrymander. The people there passed a ballot proposal that modified the state constitution and put the drawing of electoral districts into the hands of an independent committee.
As you noted, New York's district maps were thrown out for the 2022 elections by a judge. The Republicans flipped 4 of the 19 seats held by Democrats. Note that one of the seats flipped was mentioned by me in the OP, the New York 17th with the Republican winning 2,314 more votes than the Democratic candidate. What you call a mini-red wave turned out to be one of the seats that the Republicans needed to eke out a win for the House majority.
Both sides gerrymander, but Republicans have been the true masters of the art. Go look at any of the larger red states, Texas and Florida in particular. This last go around, it's been estimated that the net result of gerrymandering gave the Republicans a 7 seat advantage in the US House over the Democrats. The hard cold fact is that if neither side gerrymandered, then the Republicans would probably not have gotten a majority in the US House.
First, it wasn't "close" - the GOP won the national popular vote by around 4,000,000 votes for the House. Second, if you want to de-contextualize it and say it was "close," the only reason it was close is because of extreme Democrat gerrymanders in places gerrymandered by Democrats like Illinois, Michigan, Pennsylvania, New Jersey. I can't say New York anymore, because the Courts threw out the Democrats' gerrymander, resulting in a mini-red wave in New York. That would have happened all over the country but for Democrats rigging the election with extreme gerrymanders.
Oh it's not just Democrats that gerrymander. Both sides do it. Poor Adam Kinsinger was gerrymandered out here. Alabama is a prime example. So is Georgia, Louisiana, and Ohio. These maps were all ruled illegal and favored Republican's in the house. You think that's Okay?
The popular vote was in part gerrymandered to the Republican's advantage. None of this is okay.
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