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A new Quinnipiac Poll released this morning gives Obama a 50%-41% lead over McCain nationally. Breaking the numbers down a little they look like this:
Independents
Obama-44%
McCain-44%
Men
Obama-44%
McCain-47%
Women
Obama-55%
McCain-36%
18-34
Obama-63%
McCain-31%
35-54
Obama-48%
McCain-44%
over 55
Obama-44%
McCain-45%
Interesting that over 55 is the only age group in which McCain leads. In fact 20% in the poll say they are less likely to vote for McCain because of his age.
Rasmussen Reports™: The most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a presidential election. (http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll - broken link)
Quote:
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll shows Barack Obama attracting 44% of the vote while John McCain earns 40%. When "leaners" are included, it’s Obama 47% and McCain 45%.
The latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking update shows voter preferences holding steady, with 46% saying they would vote for Barack Obama and 43% for John McCain if the presidential election were held today.
Notice what happened to that 15 point lead in the last Newsweek Poll?
Quote:
315 Republicans (plus or minus 7)
324 Democrats (plus or minus 7)
357 Independents (plus or minus 6)
How interesting? I thought this economy was an absolute disaster - but here, people seem to be saying they are doing pretty good. It's such a shame the media has so much influence with their CONSTANT talking down of the economy.
Quote:
17. Which best describes your family's financial situation - Getting ahead, falling behind or holding steady?
LIKELY VOTERS............................................ .....
Union
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk HsHlds
The lead will only get bigger in the coming months.
I expect Obama to win, but I think it will be close. The people opposing Obama are very emotionally invested in their opposition and unlikely to be persuaded otherwise. Just look at all the hateful BS posted here every day. McCain will get 100% of the dummies who still approve of Bush. That's about 25% of the electorate right there. He'll also get 100% of the racist vote, which is probably an additional 15 - 20%.
Obama won't make any inroads with either of those groups.
In fact, Obama's biggest leads are in the most lily-white states such as Minnesota, where he has a whopping 18 point lead.
See, states like MN are considered "blue". He can ill afford to lose ANY of the states that Gore and Kerry won.
States like PA, MI, IN, WV, OH, WI, VA, NC, MO (Obama didn't fare to well in the lily-white areas of these KEY states) are the swingers as well as a few other blue states like OR, WA NH, WI.
The kook-left and the black vote are NOT enought to put Obama in the WH, thankfully.
Obama up by 10% in Iowa according to Rasmussen (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/iowa/election_2008_iowa_presidential_election - broken link) and by a whopping 18% in Minnesota (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/minnesota/election_2008_minnesota_presidential_election - broken link)
You can't blame those numbers on the "kook left" or the "black vote."
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