Good News for Obama supporters: Obama still leads in polls after GOP convention (voters, Congress)
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I think Obama is weathering the storm pretty well so far, and by "storm" I mean John McCain's surprise Sarah Palin pick last week, the GOP convention, and Sarah Palin's blistering VP acceptance speech, which pretty much gave Obama a good spanking.
Yesterday's Gallup tracking polls have Obama 48, McCain 44, and today's Rasmussen tracking poll, with leaners, are Obama 49% McCain 46%.
Rasmussen Reports™: The most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a presidential election. (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll - broken link)
Another brand new tracking poll, Hotline Diageo, show Obama 46, McCain 40.
No large bump for McCain (THANG GOD!), unlike in 2004 where Bush came out of his convention with a large 10-15 point lead over Kerry, a lead he never relenquised until election day. No mass defections of women and indepedents to Mccain after his pick of Sarah Palin.
It could all change, of course, and the next big gamechanger will be the debates. But I'm pleased to report that Obama still has the advantage at this point and he weathered the worst of the storm. And if the election were held today, it would look something like this map:
You do know that all of those polls where taken prior to speeches don't you? The polls that include Palin/McCain's speech will not come out until Monday.
Scott Rassmusen and the Zogby guy have both said that it will be the Tuesday-Weds. polls that show the true #'s as Bush and Obama both didn't get a bump until two days after the end of the convention.
I like your optimism even if it is foolish at this time.
a one time speech doesnt make most voters decide on who they are voting for. But it does spell bad news for the republicans because they dont have the momentum they had in the 2004 election around this time. Remember Bush narrowly loss too. These are different times and the climate favors democrats this year. There is a reason the democrats took back control of congress in 2006.
Personally, I'm a little disappointed and I hope things look better for McCain next week.
Why would I say such a shocking thing?
Guys--we want the college kids to come out in droves. And the way to do that is to keep the election exciting. It's like a football game, you want the lead to go back and forth at this point in the game. Otherwise it gets boring, and people forget to vote.
Personally, I'm a little disappointed and I hope things look better for McCain next week.
Why would I say such a shocking thing?
Guys--we want the college kids to come out in droves. And the way to do that is to keep the election exciting. It's like a football game, you want the lead to go back and forth at this point in the game. Otherwise it gets boring, and people forget to vote.
Are not most college kids liberals? I was, but when I got in the real world that liberal stuff just did not seem to work very well anymore.
Are not most college kids liberals? I was, but when I got in the real world that liberal stuff just did not seem to work very well anymore.
I don't think many college kids will vote for a pro-life agenda, especially when they'd have to vote for a woman who made her teenager have a baby and get married. By November, the daughter will really be showing and will have saddled herself with a teenage marriage. That's a powerful image that's bound to make college kids think.
Obama backers need to check their swagger at the door. Because under almost ANY other circumstances, McCain would win handily. Obama is in this thing because G W Bush set the table for him with 8 years of incomptence, corruption, and ruinous policy.
Every election cycle we hear about how the libs have moblized the youth vote. Then in early nov none of em show up. Comparing this election Bush kerry is folly
I think Obama is weathering the storm pretty well so far, and by "storm" I mean John McCain's surprise Sarah Palin pick last week, the GOP convention, and Sarah Palin's blistering VP acceptance speech, which pretty much gave Obama a good spanking.
Yesterday's Gallup tracking polls have Obama 48, McCain 44, and today's Rasmussen tracking poll, with leaners, are Obama 49% McCain 46%.
Rasmussen Reports™: The most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a presidential election. (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll - broken link)
Another brand new tracking poll, Hotline Diageo, show Obama 46, McCain 40.
No large bump for McCain (THANG GOD!), unlike in 2004 where Bush came out of his convention with a large 10-15 point lead over Kerry, a lead he never relenquised until election day. No mass defections of women and indepedents to Mccain after his pick of Sarah Palin.
It could all change, of course, and the next big gamechanger will be the debates. But I'm pleased to report that Obama still has the advantage at this point and he weathered the worst of the storm. And if the election were held today, it would look something like this map:
a one time speech doesnt make most voters decide on who they are voting for. But it does spell bad news for the republicans because they dont have the momentum they had in the 2004 election around this time. Remember Bush narrowly loss too. These are different times and the climate favors democrats this year. There is a reason the democrats took back control of congress in 2006.
Keep talking. Maybe eventually you'll convince yourself.
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But it does spell bad news for the republicans because they dont have the momentum they had in the 2004 election around this time. Remember Bush narrowly loss too. These are different times and the climate favors democrats this year. There is a reason the democrats took back control of congress in 2006.
