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Old 09-06-2008, 01:14 PM
 
Location: OC, CA
3,309 posts, read 5,260,331 times
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Now, John McCain's post convention bounce has not largely come as of yet. Barack's didn't reach its climax until the Monday following the end of his convention, so I expect the same to be true for McCain.

This is what the polls that are out today show. They are an average of 3 days total, Wednesday-Friday. So only 2 of those 3 days takes into account Palin's speech and only 1 of them takes into account McCain's speech. But, his convention bounce has started to show in the most recent polls. I wont expect McCain's full bounce to come until Monday, but until them, here is the "pre-bounce" polls that are out now.

Gallup- 47% for Obama, 45% for McCain (+2 for Obama)
Rasmussen-47% for Obama, 44% for McCain (+3 for Obama)

Those are the only two that include Wednesday-Friday.

I am not an advocate of polls, and I do not think they are accurate measures of how candidates did and where they stand. But, it does show that Sarah Palin's speech had a huge impact on deflating Obama's bounce. These are also important because they take into account the speeches from Tuesday, before Palin even spoke.

I wouldn't be suprised if they showed a dead tie between Obama and McCain tomorrow when ALL the polling days cover the "post Palin" speech.

Once again, we are in a dead heat for the White House.
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Old 09-06-2008, 01:16 PM
 
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From what I have heard, they are indeed expecting a dead heat for the White House by mid week next week after the post convention polls are factored in.
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Old 09-06-2008, 01:20 PM
 
Location: OC, CA
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Originally Posted by luzianne View Post
From what I have heard, they are indeed expecting a dead heat for the White House by mid week next week after the post convention polls are factored in.
I think so too. These polls are scary because they take the average of 3 days, and one of the days is BEFORE Palin even spoke.
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Old 09-06-2008, 01:26 PM
 
Location: Chicagoland
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That Gallup poll means McCain has a 6+ bounce so far. Rasmussen a +4 bounce.
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Old 09-06-2008, 01:27 PM
 
Location: OC, CA
3,309 posts, read 5,260,331 times
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Originally Posted by sanrene View Post
That Gallup poll means McCain has a 6+ bounce so far. Rasmussen a +4 bounce.
Yes it does.

And Gallup takes into account cell phone users!
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