U.S. CitiesCity-Data Forum Index
Covid-19 Information Page
Go Back   City-Data Forum > General Forums > Politics and Other Controversies > Elections
 [Register]
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
View detailed profile (Advanced) or search
site with Google Custom Search

Search Forums  (Advanced)
Reply Start New Thread
 
Old 09-09-2008, 09:44 PM
 
Location: Downtown Greensboro, NC
3,491 posts, read 8,071,045 times
Reputation: 625

Advertisements

Poll Madness: McCain Takes Lead Even As Democrats Out-Register Republicans?

"This week's mainstream coverage of the presidential horse-race has been dominated by a series of polls showing the McCain-Palin ticket with its first stable lead over Obama and Biden. Gallup's tracking poll, USA Today and CBS News all show the Republicans with some kind of lead over the Democratic ticket. But, interestingly, all three polls were also conducted using a higher sampling of Republican voters than in July, raising a question of methodology."


at the same time democrats are outregistering republicans by far. Are the polls really accurate?
Rate this post positively Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message

 
Old 09-09-2008, 09:45 PM
 
2,260 posts, read 3,481,338 times
Reputation: 381
Quote:
Originally Posted by gsoboi View Post
Poll Madness: McCain Takes Lead Even As Democrats Out-Register Republicans?

"This week's mainstream coverage of the presidential horse-race has been dominated by a series of polls showing the McCain-Palin ticket with its first stable lead over Obama and Biden. Gallup's tracking poll, USA Today and CBS News all show the Republicans with some kind of lead over the Democratic ticket. But, interestingly, all three polls were also conducted using a higher sampling of Republican voters than in July, raising a question of methodology."


at the same time democrats are outregistering republicans by far. Are the polls really accurate?
I don't think any of the polls are particularly accurate, I try to ignore the polls.
Rate this post positively Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 09-09-2008, 09:48 PM
 
3,326 posts, read 8,107,807 times
Reputation: 2001
They probably are accurate. Consider the source of the article. Arianna Huffington's little mag is very skewed. She will say anything to give Democrats the momentum. Too bad for the Dems that few pay attention to her.
I'm not arguing the accuracy of the report, just the way it's presented.
Rate this post positively Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 09-09-2008, 09:48 PM
 
Location: Omaha
1,137 posts, read 2,116,922 times
Reputation: 325
dunno. I'm torn by them. I only think they are reliable if several of them over a large period of time predict one way or another. For instance. I think Obama has had a slight lead for quite a while. Time will tell if McCain will have one.
Rate this post positively Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 09-09-2008, 09:50 PM
 
Location: Downtown Greensboro, NC
3,491 posts, read 8,071,045 times
Reputation: 625
If they are using a higher sampling of republicans, than that would explain in part McCain's lead over Obama....but I agree its about the electoral college.
Rate this post positively Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 09-09-2008, 09:52 PM
 
4,182 posts, read 6,022,558 times
Reputation: 1726
It may be that Christian fundamentalists who previously were not too excited about McCain did not bother to answer pollsters on the phone, but now that they have Palin to root for, they have come out to voice their support. But these fundies would not have voted for Obama regardless, so I don't think he really lost anything here. Don't forget too that the GOP convention came after the Dem convention, so these polls would obviously reflect the GOP bounce.
Rate this post positively Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 09-09-2008, 09:53 PM
 
Location: OC, CA
3,309 posts, read 5,290,781 times
Reputation: 651
Its the Huffington Post. She is trying to hold a sinking ship up....she will get desperate. Gallup doesnt post how many Republicans vs. Democrats they poll, so any of that information she "supposedly" has is likely made up.
Rate this post positively Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 09-09-2008, 09:53 PM
 
1,353 posts, read 3,327,287 times
Reputation: 923
There are polls with slight Republican bias. There are other polls with slight Democrat bias. Some polls oversample Republicans. Others oversample Democrats. Some oversample independents. There are polls that don't have any bias. The truth, then, will lie somewhere in the middle.

If you want to cancel out all the biases and errors from the polls, the best thing to do, then, is to take a rolling average of all polls taken, which RealClearPolitics does.

This is where the race stands:

RealClearPolitics - Election 2008 - General Election: McCain vs. Obama

McCain currently is leading by 2.4% nationwide.

Subject to change on a day-to-day basis, of course.
Rate this post positively Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 09-09-2008, 09:54 PM
 
Location: Came-by-Chance
1,792 posts, read 1,251,023 times
Reputation: 579
Quote:
Originally Posted by gsoboi View Post
If they are using a higher sampling of republicans, than that would explain in part McCain's lead over Obama....
I believe I heard David Gerkin(sp?) suggest the same thing on AC 360 last night.
Rate this post positively Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 09-09-2008, 09:55 PM
 
4,182 posts, read 6,022,558 times
Reputation: 1726
Quote:
McCain currently is leading by 2.4% nationwide.
If that's all McCain got from his convention, then that's a rather weak bounce than usually happens.
Rate this post positively Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.

Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.


Reply
Please update this thread with any new information or opinions. This open thread is still read by thousands of people, so we encourage all additional points of view.

Quick Reply
Message:

Over $104,000 in prizes was already given out to active posters on our forum and additional giveaways are planned!

Go Back   City-Data Forum > General Forums > Politics and Other Controversies > Elections

All times are GMT -6.

© 2005-2021, Advameg, Inc. · Please obey Forum Rules · Terms of Use and Privacy Policy · Bug Bounty

City-Data.com - Contact Us - Archive 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36, 37 - Top