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The race has tightened in the last day. After trailing by 5-7 pts. for the last 10 days, McCain is now just 2 pts. behind Obama.
One potential reason: Obama's one-time lead on the question of who'd best handle the economy has evaporated. Today, Obama and McCain are tied at 42%. Independent voters favor McCain on the economy by an 8 pt. margin (42-34%).
I think they are playing fast and loose with the Party ID numbers.
RealClearPolitics - Election 2008 - Latest Polls RealClearPolitics - Election 2008 - General Election: McCain vs. Obama
Rasmussen Reportsâ„¢: The most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a presidential election. (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll - broken link)
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Tuesday shows Barack Obama attracting 52% of the vote while John McCain earns 44%. This is the second straight day that Obama has led by eight percentage points, his largest lead of the year. For the past twelve days, Obama’s support has ranged from 50% to 52% while McCain has been at 44% of 45% every day
I really think the tweaking of party affiliation is the likely culprit in that Hotline poll. 5 points overnight just doesn't wash unless they have adjusted the sampling.
I know Rasmussen is using a 6% oversampling of democrats this week. Gallup 8-10%. CNN doesn't list how they weight the polls, which is suspicious to say the least. The CBS poll is using 9% oversampling of democrats. NBC used 8%.
I think this is the shortest amount of time you've spent going from "Who cares about the national polls" to "Look at the national polls! My guy is only losing by a little!"
I really think the tweaking of party affiliation is the likely culprit in that Hotline poll. 5 points overnight just doesn't wash unless they have adjusted the sampling.
I know Rasmussen is using a 6% oversampling of democrats this week. Gallup 8-10%. CNN doesn't list how they weight the polls, which is suspicious to say the least. The CBS poll is using 9% oversampling of democrats. NBC used 8%.
Sanrene left this part out from her Reuters link which I think independent readers will find very important when evaluating her claims. Obama has 3-point national lead on McCain | Reuters
The survey, the first in a series of daily tracking polls that will sample public opinion until the November 4 election, showed Obama with an advantage among the crucial swing voting blocs of independents and women.
Not the use of the word first, yes this is the first Zogby Reuters poll so there are no previous ones to compare their results to. Thus is it valid to use it to measure a change in sentiment one way or the other since it is the first of? You the independent thinker can decide that for yourself.
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