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Barack Obama holds leads in four key counties that will go a long way toward determining the eventual winner in four important swing states--Missouri, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia--according to a new Politico/Insider Advantage survey.
Obama is poised to expand on recent Democratic gains in three populous suburban counties--Pennsylvania’s Bucks County, Missouri’s St. Louis County and Virginia’s Prince William County. In a fourth, Ohio’s Franklin County, home to Columbus and its suburbs, the Politico/Insider Advantage survey also found Obama with the lead.
In Bucks County, a politically competitive but historically Republican suburb that shares a border with Philadelphia, Obama is running ahead of John McCain, 47-41 percent. In 2004, Democrat John Kerry carried the county by a slim 51-48 percent.
Obama bests McCain 50-42 percent in Prince William County, a Washington, D.C. suburb that voted for George W. Bush in both 2000 and 2004. Between 1976 and 2004, Prince William County supported Republican presidential candidates by an average margin of 18 points.
Obama also has opened up a wide 53-37 percent advantage over McCain in suburban St. Louis County, which does not include Missouri’s largest city, St. Louis. In 2004, Democrat John Kerry carried St. Louis County, the most populous county in the state, 54-45 percent.
In Ohio’s Franklin County, the state’s second-most populous county after Cleveland’s Cuyahoga County, Obama leads by a narrower 45-40 percent margin. Kerry carried Franklin County 54-45 percent in 2004.
InsiderAdvantage pollster Matt Towery explained Obama’s success in these areas as a result of his strength among independents and voters between the ages of 30-to-44.
I'm betting Missouri will be in the bag after tomorrow's rallies in St. Louis & Kansas City! I'll be reporting back tomorrow night when we return from the rally in KC!
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