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10-20-2008, 09:01 PM
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Location: Road Warrior
2,016 posts, read 5,420,069 times
Reputation: 835
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Poll shows presidential race may be tightening - CNN.com
According to CNN polls Obama's lead has dropped to 6% as election date nears and early voting begins, another piece of news is an Irish bookie who drops 1.36 million betting that Obama will win this election outright.
Irish Bookie Pays Out Obama Bets Weeks Early : NPR
My prediction out of fun, Obama 50% - McCain 47% - Other 3%. Electoral Obama 277 - McCain 261. Feel free to place your predictions here:
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10-20-2008, 09:05 PM
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573 posts, read 749,202 times
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It's called the "close-to-election-day-pollster-fudge-factor". Pollsters hate to be very wrong - it is their credibility and $$ at stake.
As an election date grows closer, pollsters tend to weight things to lessen the chance of being so wrong as to look ridiculous. It is a very predictable pollster pattern.
Last edited by Tennis702; 10-20-2008 at 09:14 PM..
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10-20-2008, 09:13 PM
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Location: Washington state
7,208 posts, read 9,134,906 times
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Obama's RCP average spread is 5.8% including a 9% lead in the ABC/WaPo Poll released today. |
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10-20-2008, 09:39 PM
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573 posts, read 749,202 times
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To counter the pollster-fudge-factor, keep an eye on Intrade.com's $$ political futures market, where real money is on the line. |
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10-20-2008, 09:43 PM
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Location: Mount Dora, FL
3,080 posts, read 3,006,879 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RangerDuke08
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I'd be surprised if mccain got more than 200 electoral votes... |
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10-20-2008, 09:44 PM
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Location: Road Warrior
2,016 posts, read 5,420,069 times
Reputation: 835
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tennis702
To counter the pollster-fudge-factor, keep an eye on Intrade.com's $$ political futures market, where real money is on the line. |
Fudge, so whats your prediction? |
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