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I agree. PA should be Obama country. But Ohio is interesting.. its a complete toss-up!
But it does seem that McCain needs to win every state that is a toss-up including FL, OH, etc. in TOTAL to win..
Basically as of today, McCain HAS to sweep ALL of the battleground states to get over 270. If he loses even one of them Obama becomes the next president. Here are the battleground states:
ALL these states voted for Bush in 2004.
Colorado (Obama leads by 5 points)
Nevada (Obama slight lead)
Ohio (Obama slight lead)
Missouri (toss up)
Indiana (McCain slight lead)
Virginia (Obama leads by 10 points)
North Carolina (toss up)
Florida (Obama slight lead)
As you can see it looks pretty gloomy for John McCain because he has to win ALL these states. this is why the media pundentshave been saying the electoral math favors Obama. If Obama wins any of these states, he is our next president. (Keep in mind we have two weeks to go and unless something dramatic happens, these numbers will be about the same com election day). You may ask how can Obama win Ohio and Florida? A few key things have happened. Obama has already locked in two states that voted for Bush in 2004 (Iowa and New Mexico) where Obama has big leads. Because of that, any of the remaining states above will put Obama over 270. At this point national polls really dont matter whether it favors Obama or not. Its these battleground states that matter. Right now the only thing republicans can hope for is for the "Bradley Effect" to take place. However the polls were accurate during the primaries so Obama shouldnt have to worry about the Bradley Effect.
I just heard and I heard this before that Arizonia may go from strong McCain to lean McCain. How sad is that
there are a few others going from strong McCain to lean McCain (North Dakota, Montana and Georgia). Coincidently Obama beat Hillary in Montana, North Dakota and Georgia in the primaries. If turn out is bigger than expected in some state, There could be some huge upsets where Obama takes states in November that were completely off the radar.
The way it stands on my blue/red map, if Obama holds the west coast, the northeast (including Pennsylvania and Del), MN, IA, WI, IL, and takes New Mexico and VA, he doesn't need another state.
If Obama could take Florida, he doesn't need Pennsylvania and vice versa.
God help McCain if Obama picks on any of the tossups.
Word is tonight that McCain's team thinks that CO, NM and VA are a lost cause. They are focusing their remaining money and time on PA. If they can take PA, I believe the math will still work for them (along with taking FL, OH, and all the other old Bush states). But it looks like a long shot...big one.
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McCain's Electoral College Path To Victory.
