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Old 10-31-2008, 11:11 AM
 
58 posts, read 75,168 times
Reputation: 27

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- The Bradley Effect. Don't believe these polls for a second. I just went over our numbers and found that we have next to no chance in the following states: Missouri, Indiana, North Carolina, Florida, New Hampshire and Nevada. Ohio leans heavily to McCain, but is too close to call it for him. Virginia, Pennsylvania, Colorado, New Mexico and Iowa are the true "toss up states". The only two of these the campaign feels "confident" in are Iowa and New Mexico. The reason for such polling discrepancy is the Bradley Effect, and this is a subject of much discussion in the campaign. In general, we tend to take a -10 point percentage in allowing for this, and are not comfortable until the polls give us a spread well over this mark. This is why we are still campaigning in Virginia and Pennsylvania! This is why Ohio is such a desperate hope for us! What truly bothers this campaign is the fact that some pollsters get up to an 80% "refuse to respond" result. You can't possibly include these into the polls. The truth is, people are afraid to let people know who they are voting for. The vast majority of these respondents are McCain supporters. Obama is the "hip" choice, and we all know
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Old 10-31-2008, 11:19 AM
 
1,300 posts, read 1,489,021 times
Reputation: 441
So, did the "Obama insider" release this information to you or to a specific news source?

~ButterBrownBiscuit~
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Old 10-31-2008, 11:28 AM
 
135 posts, read 223,327 times
Reputation: 58
Another amazing story with no source? It MUST be true!!!!!!!!
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Old 10-31-2008, 11:38 AM
 
Location: Fort Myers, FL
1,286 posts, read 2,909,190 times
Reputation: 249
the bradley effect never really took place. its a misconception that has been celebrated into something that never happened.

polls don't mean **** they never do.
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Old 10-31-2008, 11:39 AM
 
Location: Home is where the heart is
15,402 posts, read 28,856,394 times
Reputation: 19090
Quote:
Originally Posted by cpelp View Post
Another amazing story with no source? It MUST be true!!!!!!!!
Now, now the voice in batrice's head is a very reliable source...
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Old 10-31-2008, 11:41 AM
 
574 posts, read 1,206,137 times
Reputation: 607
Quote:
Originally Posted by batrice View Post
I just went over our numbers and found that we have next to no chance in the following states: Missouri, Indiana, North Carolina, Florida, New Hampshire and Nevada.
Oh thank goodness someone is going over their numbers! Here I thought there were numbers out there that haven't been gone over yet. WHEW!
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Old 10-31-2008, 11:42 AM
 
12,669 posts, read 20,395,781 times
Reputation: 3050
Quote:
Originally Posted by cpelp View Post
Another amazing story with no source? It MUST be true!!!!!!!!
Will Obama suffer from the 'Bradley effect'?
Will Obama suffer from the 'Bradley effect'? - CNN.com

Did "The Bradley Effect" Beat Obama in New Hampshire?
http://www.thenation.com/blogs/campaignmatters?pid=2683


Obama plays down possibility of “Bradley effect”
October 29th, 2008
Tales from the Trail » Blog Archive » Obama plays down possibility of “Bradley effect” | Blogs | Reuters.com


ABC News: Will the Bradley Effect Be Obama's Downfall?

RealClearPolitics - Articles - The Bradley Effect - Selective Memory
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Old 10-31-2008, 11:47 AM
 
Location: Stillwater, Oklahoma
30,976 posts, read 21,514,894 times
Reputation: 9675
Come on, Obama is only half white. It will be interesting, though, if the opposite of the Bradley effect occurs for Obama.
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Old 10-31-2008, 11:48 AM
 
4,183 posts, read 6,505,580 times
Reputation: 1734
It's amusing to see anti-Obama posters here show their desperation and try to reassure themselves that most Americans are as racist as they are and will never vote for a black man.
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Old 10-31-2008, 11:50 AM
 
1 posts, read 1,761,432 times
Reputation: 10
Quote:
Originally Posted by batrice View Post
- The Bradley Effect. Don't believe these polls for a second. I just went over our numbers and found that we have next to no chance in the following states: Missouri, Indiana, North Carolina, Florida, New Hampshire and Nevada. Ohio leans heavily to McCain, but is too close to call it for him. Virginia, Pennsylvania, Colorado, New Mexico and Iowa are the true "toss up states". The only two of these the campaign feels "confident" in are Iowa and New Mexico. The reason for such polling discrepancy is the Bradley Effect, and this is a subject of much discussion in the campaign. In general, we tend to take a -10 point percentage in allowing for this, and are not comfortable until the polls give us a spread well over this mark. This is why we are still campaigning in Virginia and Pennsylvania! This is why Ohio is such a desperate hope for us! What truly bothers this campaign is the fact that some pollsters get up to an 80% "refuse to respond" result. You can't possibly include these into the polls. The truth is, people are afraid to let people know who they are voting for. The vast majority of these respondents are McCain supporters. Obama is the "hip" choice, and we all know

LMAO!!!!

Completely fabricated as usual from a right-winger. Where did you get that from, Drudge report? Honestly, I think it's pathetic that McCain supporters are banking on the Bradley effect to win and it's even more telling that we are freaking out at Obama carrying all those RED states.

Early stats in Colorado, NM and Nevada are already in and Obama is WINNING.

I think you should read this article:
FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right: McCain's Mountain of a Problem
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