Quote:
Originally Posted by jmarquise
it sure looked bad for truman.
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Only because you are a friend will I save you the trouble.
No. 1199: Gallup Poll
Then, in 1948, Gallup blew the Truman-Dewey prediction. How? His mistake was to quit polling two weeks before the election with fourteen percent of the electorate still undecided. After that humiliation, Gallup went back to analyze his error. He emerged with the maxim, "Undecided voters side with the incumbent."
Unlike the Literary Digest, Gallup bounced back, and his polls flourish today. Meanwhile, every trailing politician since 1948 has promised to do what Truman did, but few actually have. And yet Gallup's great gaffe was a fine legacy. It reminded us that the best oracle cannot be trusted absolutely. The stars do not control our lives, and it is never completely over -- until it's over.