McCain's Crowd Disturbingly Small, Ten Times Less Than Planned For

[snuffster]

Originally Posted by TuborgP

Rasmussen Reportsâ„¢: The most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a presidential election. (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/florida/election_2008_florida_presidential_election - broken link)
Fifty-five percent (55%) of those who have already voted cast their ballots for Obama, 44% for McCain. Nationwide, Rasmussen Reports polling suggests as many as 37% of voters may cast their ballot before tomorrow.

And?

[TuborgP]

Originally Posted by Mike from back east

Yes, all that and the fact that Gallup did that 1948 poll by telephone, when a lot of people did NOT have a phone at the time. Pundits surmise this was a factor; the slightly better off GOP types had phones, the worker bee DEMs did not.

This year, there is talk of 'cell phone gap' in that tons of young people, who are mostly Obama fans, only have cell phones, but the pollsters only call people with traditional land-line phones (the not so young folks). Thus the pollsters are NOT calling quite so many young people, giving rise to a theory that Obama actually has a bigger lead than the polls are showing. We'll know in 36 hours.

FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right: Reassurance for Dems in NBC/WSJ Survey
Finally, it includes cellphones (which may be part of the reason for the "house effect"). An updated version of the cellphone chart is below. (The polls that include cellphones are highlighted in orange, those that don't are in gray). Between the NBC poll and the final Gallup numbers, the discrepancy has now grown even greater: Obama leads by an average of 10.0 points in the cellphone polls, versus 5.1 in the landline-only's.

[kingtodd]

i can't wait until this is all over and we can stop using that damn word 'POLL' -- ugh

i'm election'd out although BO will WIN in a LANDSLIDE